Is Allen Lazard the Next WR1 in Green Bay?
Going out on a limb for an undrafted free agent (UDFA) going into his fifth year without a top-36 fantasy finish is not typically recommended, but when Aaron Rodgers himself describes Allen Lazard as being the “dirty work guy” who is now “getting an opportunity to be a No. 1 receiver”, we can’t help but take note. Getting the trust of Rodgers is a feat all its own and becoming his number one has proven to be fruitful for fantasy. Is Allen Lazard ready to step into that role in 2022?
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Allen Lazard's Player Profile
Lazard has shown that he is not your typical UDFA. A former number one recruit out of the state of Iowa, Lazard received offers from big programs like Notre Dame, Stanford, Iowa, and Nebraska before committing to Iowa State. Coming into the NFL, Lazard posted a solid 76th percentile SPARQ score standing in at 6-foot-3, 225 pounds at the combine. These impressive measurables have him comped to Marques Colston, a player who finished inside the top 12 WRs for fantasy three times in his career. This profile is what got him onto the Packers’ 53-man roster from the Jaguars practice squad back in 2018. Lazard would later see action in Week 17 of that season due to an injury to Davante Adams. Lazard’s opportunities coming after an Adams injury became a common theme in recent years.
Lazard Has Flashed When Given Opportunities
In 2019, Lazard was re-signed by the Packers and got his first significant playing time after an injury to Adams. Lazard played well, averaging four receptions for 50 yards, and found the end zone once in three games before Adams returned. After producing in limited action in 2019, Lazard saw his role expand heading into his second full season with the Packers.
The following season, Lazard got off to a quick start, which was only enhanced after an Adams injury in Week 2. Lazard capitalized on his expanded role without Adams, securing 6-146-1 vs. the Saints in Week 3. Unfortunately, Lazard’s new expanded role ended after just one week as he was placed on short-term IR due to a core muscle injury.
Last year, we didn’t see Lazard play any games without Adams, however, we did see him play a more featured role when both Randall Cobb and Marquez Valdes-Scanting missed time.
| 2021 Season | Games Played | Snap % | PPS* | PPO** | Half-PPR PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| With all 3 WRs | 6 | 68% | .07 | 2.74 | 3.2 |
| Games w/o 1 or more WR | 9 | 77% | .23 | 2.87 | 11.5 |
*PPS – Points Per Snap **PPO – Points Per Opportunity (Based on 50% of snaps played)
The chart above shows the number of games Lazard played with all three of the other top WR options (Adams, Cobb, and MVS) versus when Lazard played without at least one of them in the lineup. It was clear when given an expanded role, Lazard capitalized on his opportunities. His .23 points per snap would have tied him with notable top-12 fantasy WRs such as Stefon Diggs and Mike Williams. Meanwhile, Lazard's points per opportunity of 2.87 puts him inside the top five just behind Mike Evans and D.K. Metcalf. Finally, his 11.5 PPG in half-PPR would have made Lazard the WR24 last year. This bump in production includes a strong finish to the 2021 season. Over the final six regular-season games he averaged nearly six targets a game. This additional target share allowed him to average 55 total yards per game and five total TDs good for 12.5 half-PPR PPG.
What is Allen Lazard's Ceiling?
Considering Lazard is heading into his fifth year and will be 26 years old when the season kicks off, it might appear that we do know his ceiling. However, when looking into the history of Rodgers’ number one WRs, it might tell us Lazard is set up for his best season yet.
After Rodgers started off his career with Greg Jennings as his top option, the first drafted WR during his era as a starter was Jordy Nelson. Nelson, through his first three seasons with the Packers, never cracked the top 50 WRs for fantasy. It wasn’t until year four, ironically when he was 26 years old, that he finally broke out as the WR4 in fantasy.
The next WR to become Rodgers’ number one is Adams. His first breakout season came in his third year. Adams scored 12 TDs after finding the end zone just four times in his first two years. That season led to a top 10 fantasy finish. However, it wasn’t until his fifth season that we saw his WR4 overall and WR1 in PPG finish. What this history lesson tells us is that it takes years for Rodgers to fully trust his top options and usually it takes the departure of the previous number one for that player to find his ceiling. This was the case for both Nelson and Adams.
Packers' Outlook Without Davante Adams
Heading into 2022, the Packers have a lot of available opportunities as they have big shoes to fill with notable WRs Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scanting out the door. Currently, the Packers have the third most vacated air yards (2,807), fifth most vacated targets (248), and the fourth most vacated targets inside the 10 (18) heading into this season.
The first instinct would be to assume that new rookie WR Christian Watson should step in to fill a lot of that void. However, we should point out that both Jordy Nelson in 2008 and Davante Adams in 2014 were second-round picks as well. Neither of those players took over in their first year as the primary option. Instead, Rodgers leaned on his more established players like Greg Jennings and Nelson in those seasons.
Another key component to why Lazard can step in to fill the void as the number one WR is where he wins on the field. A big part of the Rodgers and Adams connection was their dominance in the red zone. Lazard has already shown that he has some level of rapport in the red zone with Rodgers. In the nine games outlined above where Lazard saw an expanded role, he was tied for second in the NFL in end zone targets with 10, and third in end zone TDs with four. Lazard's eight TDs last season on just 60 total targets makes him a threat for double-digit scores if he sees an expanded role in 2022.
The Bottom Line
- Aaron Rodgers’ lengthy history of not leaning on younger players or free agents gives Lazard a big edge over new WRs Sammy Watkins, Christian Watson, and Romeo Doubs.
- Lazard has proven when given an expanded role that he can offer top-30 WR production.
- During the Rodgers era, the Packers’ WR1 average finish is WR10 with 15.3 half-PPR PPG when Rodgers plays a full season.
- Lazard’s current Underdog ADP is WR39 and 80th overall. This draft cost is more in line with his production from 2021 as he finished as the WR47 while playing alongside other starters like Adams and MVS. This presents major value in early summer drafts.
