FanDuel & DraftKings NFL DFS Week 1 GPP Breakdown

Sep 10, 2022

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In this space each week will be the top stacks, contrarian plays, and strategies to attack GPPs on both FanDuel and DraftKings. The backbone of our player pool is value, as highlighted by 4for4’s proprietary value metric, which goes beyond simple point-per-dollar projections. To be successful in GPPs, however, it’s essential to be unique and that can be accomplished by combining knowledge from 4for4’s suite of DFS tools including ownership projections, leverage scores, correlation, and stack values.

Even with all of these resources at our disposal, adjusting for game type is essential. For example, someone playing the Millionaire Maker shouldn’t have the same approach as someone entering a $300 single-entry contest with 150 entries. For nuanced explanations on game selection and lineup construction, be sure to check out 4for4’s DFS Strategy Hub and DFS MVP game theory segments.

Note: Many of 4for4’s cash game and value plays should be in your GPP player pool but may not necessarily be written about below. Most starters on teams with high implied totals are worthy of being rostered but players in this breakdown are those to be overweight on.

This article is updated until kickoff. For other up-to-the-minute and Sunday morning updates, be sure to join the 4for4 DFS subscription-only Discord channel.

More Week 1 DFS Strategy: Cash Game Breakdown | Daigle’s Top Values and Picks | WR/CB Matchups

Keys to Winning GPPs in Week 1

The first week of NFL season is the best week to take your own stance and completely fade any groupthink. Betting markets—the basis of most DFS analysis—need a couple of weeks to catch up to the new season, so it should be no surprise that DFS players will make some faulty assumptions on the first slate of the year. This doesn’t mean that you should ignore all betting lines but it does encourage DFS players to fade spots where ownership is extremely high, even more than usual.

On this week’s main slate, seven teams are favored by at least five points and five of those teams are on the road. Ownership looks like it will concentrate heavily on the Chiefs/Cardinals game—which has the highest over/under on the slate (53.5)—with the Bengals and Ravens both ranking in the top five in cumulative team ownership on both FanDuel and DraftKings. The Chargers—the team with the second-highest team total on the slate (27.75)—rank 10th in cumulative ownership on DraftKings, while the Colts are just eighth in the same category on FanDuel despite the third-highest team total (26.5).

There are a handful of high-end running backs in great spots so expect the dominant roster construction to be at least one high-priced running back—expect very few rosters paying up for multiple wide receivers. Especially on FanDuel, higher-salary tight ends should dominate ownership. Consider these factors when searching for a unique build.