Best Fantasy Football Matchups Week 7

Oct 19, 2022

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Schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed, or aFPA, is 4for4’s answer to biased statistics. By removing bias, we can level the playing field and compare matchups in an "apples-to-apples" manner. As the season moves along, the data will change. Regardless, aFPA is arguably the best tool available to gain an edge when using waivers and building lineups.

Another point to make: I could offer players such as Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes pretty much every week, especially when they face awful units according to aFPA. That does everyone a disservice, so I will do my best to avoid players rostered in the majority of fantasy leagues.

Editor's note: Check out the complete set of Week 7 rankings here.

Here are the best plays for Week 7.

Jimmy Garoppolo vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Four useful-to-elite quarterbacks are on bye in Week 7. It’s an ugly scene for waivers except at quarterback, oddly enough. Jimmy G will welcome the high-powered Chiefs offense to Santa Clara in what could be a sneaky shootout. The 49ers backfield could be in a get-right scenario after an abysmal Week 6, but Garoppolo has the best positional matchup on the 49ers. Kansas City is 29th in aFPA, allowing 200-plus passing and multiple passing TDs in every game this season. Even better, the Chiefs only have one interception, an issue Garoppolo can have when asked to pass. The veteran has averaged 35.5 pass attempts the past two weeks and has a top 10 red zone pass completion rate despite not playing Week 1. None of his three interceptions has come inside the 20 as well, so he has taken care of the ball when points are available.

The 49ers have a few injuries on defense that could force the 49ers’ hand on offense, including former Chief cornerback Chavarius Ward day-to-day with a groin injury.

Melvin Gordon vs. New York Jets

With the Ravens getting two backs back from injury, Kenyan Drake has more of an uphill battle to touches than earlier this week, and all three could end up with an even workload based on their skill sets/talent. It is time to pivot.

Russell Wilson is officially out for the Broncos, meaning Brett Rypien will be under center. The running game is now paramount to the Broncos in their pursuit of a win despite an embarrassing start to their season. The Melvin Gordon situation is a bit of a mess, but if Nathaniel Hackett is trying to curry favor with the veteran and wants to win, he will need to lean on him. Gordon is the most talented back in the Broncos backfield and gets a run defense allowing the 10th-most schedule-adjusted points to the position. Winds could push into the 20 mph range with consistency, which could also force Denver to be more conservative in the passing game. Three backs is better than one in real football, but counting on the best RB to do their job is what makes Gordon the favorable option. Gordon has 12 total touches in the red zone turning one into a touchdown and is less likely to be usurped for RZ work the way Lamar Jackson does on the Ravens.

Allen Lazard at Washington Commanders

Target a potentially washed offense after losing at home? You betcha!

Lazard is the clear receiver target for Aaron Rodgers, especially with Randall Cobb nursing an ankle injury. Lazard is tied for sixth in the NFL with three red zone touchdowns and gets the 32nd-ranked Commanders defense against wideouts. Need more assurance that it’s okay to play a Packer receiver in Week 7? Dante Pettis, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Noah Brown, and Zay Jones have all topped 60 receiving yards with multiple catches. And that’s just the lower-tier receivers to get theirs. The Commanders are allowing 12.5 catches for 185.33 yards per game to wide receivers.

Gerald Everett vs. Seattle Seahawks

Nothing is more alpha male than your tight end wearing a single-digit jersey number with a shaded visor on his helmet. Gerald Everett will get a revenge game against a Seahawks defense that ranks last in aFPA to tight ends. One would think it would be a get-right week for Mike Williams or a ‘Welcome Back!’ for Keenan Allen, but the Seahawks are shutting down opposing wideouts (3rd in aFPA), which is probably best for Justin Herbert and Everett.

Seattle’s defense has made Albert Okwuegbunam (5/33/0), Andrew Beck (2/52/0), Kyle Pitts (5/87/0), and Adam Trautman (2/32/1) fantasy-relevant this season and just allowed 7/70/0 to dad runner Zach Ertz. This is also the same defense that helped T.J. Hockenson put up historic fantasy points for a tight end in Week 4.

Jets Defense at Denver Broncos

Awfully good timing for the Jets to be heading to the Mile High state. Russell Wilson is in serious danger of missing Week 7, and the Broncos' offense has already given up the fourth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing defenses. The Jets' defense allows almost eight fewer points per game in 2022 than in 2021 and has allowed 15.7 points per game over their last three contests.

If the Jets slow down whichever backs are playing for Denver, the Jets' pass defense could have its way all game Sunday.