Week 11 NFL Betting Picks: Team and Game Totals

Nov 17, 2022

Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Image

I played the Colts team total under 17.5 last week, thinking Sam Ehlinger would be at the helm again, but alas, I was burned by Jeff Saturday. I also won an under on the Rams for the third consecutive week, a play I made confidently, thinking Matthew Stafford would play. Now without Cooper Kupp, I'm not sure how low these Rams team total looks can go, but I'll be watching.

Handicapping NFL sides and totals is not a perfect science, though it gets easier to navigate as the season progresses. The more we can contextualize in-season data and adjust it for the situation and opponent, the better. Whenever possible, lean into situation-adjusted stats over raw counting stats. Utilize metrics like success rate and explosive play rates over total yards and points against. Our Team and Player Stat Explorer tools can help.

I will bring you my favorite totals of the week in this space all season long, focusing on what I think is the most significant inefficiency in the market: Individual team totals. Working around key numbers is critical, and focusing on one team or matchup helps eliminate a bit of variance in each bet.

The NFL news cycle and player-related updates are relentless this time of year. All of our plays are released through our subscriber Discord. Go to #Role-Assign and turn on "Staff NFL Plays" to receive push notifications whenever a play is released by the 4for4 team. Beyond picks, our betting subscription includes tools that can't be found anywhere else. You can find out more details about everything a betting subscription comes with here.

*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication.