Hoppen to Conclusions: Week 14 Insights and Analysis

Hello and welcome to the Week 14 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions! This is where I, Sam Hoppen, will share some of my favorite charts, which are designed to give you an overview of the NFL landscape. These charts, along with the commentary that I provide, aim to help you make start or sit DFS lineup construction, or any other fantasy football decisions. There can be a lot of noise in fantasy football analysis, but these charts have been carefully selected to give you some of the most relevant and useful decision points.

Each of the charts has been designed in a way that you want to be targeting players and teams that are in the top-right quadrant of the chart as denoted by the dotted black lines, which signify the median value for the stat on either the x-axis or y-axis. Before getting to each of the charts and analyses, here are some brief descriptions of what you will find on each chart and how to interpret them. As you can see, I have also added views on the last four weeks of games.

Note: neutral game-script is defined as plays outside of the two-minute warning with a win probability between 20% and 80% for the offensive team.

• Team Pace and Plays: Compares a team's average plays per game (in regulation only, overtime excluded) to its neutral-script pace, using seconds per play as a measure of pace. On the chart, the y-axis flipped to show faster-paced teams (fewer seconds per play) on top. Simply put, teams (and overall matchups) with more plays and faster pace will offer more opportunities for fantasy point-scoring.
• Team Pass Rates: Compares a team's pass rate over expectation (PROE) to its red-zone pass rate. Here we can identify which teams are passing the most when game script isn't a deciding factor and when they get close to the goal line.
• Running Back Usage: Compares running back snap percent to his high-value touches (carries inside the 10 and receptions), with the size of the player's point as his total opportunities per game.
• Wide Receiver/Tight End Usage: Compares player weighted opportunity rating (WOPR) to his targets per route run (TPRR), with the size of the player's point as his receiver air conversion ratio (RACR). WOPR weights both air yards share and target share to evaluate a player's opportunity, while RACR divides a player's receiving yards by his air yards to evaluate his efficiency in the opportunity he is given. The charts show the same information for both the wide receiver and tight end position.

Team Pace and Plays

• Let me start by saying that it's a total travesty that the Titans vs. Jaguars game this week isn't on Thursday night football. It's especially tragic because both Jacksonville and Tennessee have been playing some solid football of late. While it hasn't shown up in the win-loss columns, these two teams rank in the top ten in EPA per pass over the last four weeks. This is perfect, because attacking both of these defenses through the air is the right way to do it. Over that same four-week stretch, these defenses rank in the bottom six in EPA per pass. The AFC South divisional showdown may not look like a barnburner, especially since they each fare poorly in most pace-related metrics. Whether it's neutral-script pace, pace over expected, or no huddle rate, Jacksonville and Tennessee both rank outside the top 20. But I lean more on the efficiency of these passing attacks to carry this game over its current 41.5-point game total.
  • Action: bet over 41.5 (-105) on FanDuel

Team Pass Rates

• I noted earlier this week just how different the New York Jets are with and without Zach Wilson, but it bears repeating because it should dictate whether Jets players should or shouldn't be started. With Wilson as the starting quarterback, New York has a -5.6% PROE, but when either Mike White or Joe Flacco has started, it has risen to 0.3% - a truly remarkable split and demonstration of how they feel about their second-year quarterback. This past week also gave us one of Garrett Wilson's best games in his already-impressive rookie season, as he caught eight passes on a season-high 15 targets for 162 yards. But it also appears as though Corey Davis is the team's WR2 (while healthy) over Elijah Moore. Davis has out-targeted Moore in all but two games this season that they've both played. That said, Moore is still worth holding on to (especially if they continue to pass this much) as he had his highest routes run rate since Week 5 on Sunday at 75%.
  • Action: start Garrett Wilson and Corey Davis while Mike White is starting and hold Elijah Moore
• The Jacksonville Jaguars have seen a massive shift in their pass rates recently. Jacksonville had a positive PROE in three of their first nine games but has had two games above a 5% PROE in their last three games, giving them a 4.3% PROE since Week 10. To that end, who Trevor Lawrence is throwing the ball to has changed as well. Since Week 10, Zay Jones leads the team with a 28.8% target share, while Christian Kirk is not far behind at 26.1%. There isn't another player on the team with a target share over 11% in those games. From a routes perspective, though, both Marvin Jones and Evan Engram are the only two other players to have run a route on over 60% of the team's dropbacks in each of the last three games, so the target tree for Jacksonville is pretty solid between each of the four players mentioned already. Jacksonville will face tough Cowboys and Jets team in the first two weeks of the fantasy playoffs, so starting some of the fringe players may take some guts, but they're still worth an add either way.
  • Action: add Zay Jones (and start as a flex) and Evan Engram

Running Back Usage

• We are currently halfway through Clyde Edwards-Helaire's stint on the injured reserve, which has given us a nice two-headed backfield in Kansas City. In the first two games without Edwards-Helaire, Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon have been used in two very distinct ways, but ways that you would expect them to be used in. Pacheco has been the lead rushing back, totaling 36 carries across the two games (compared to just 8 for McKinnon), and has gotten 60.9% of the team's red zone carries. Meanwhile, McKinnon has served as the primary pass-catching back, running a route on 39% of dropbacks and playing on 79.2% of the team's 3rd-down snaps (compared to 28.6% and 16.7% for Pacheco, respectively). Most importantly, though, Pacheco has the edge in high-value touches with 12 compared to seven. In any case, both of these guys should be rostered, with Pacheco a solid RB2 option and McKinnon a solid flex option while CEH remains out.
  • Action: add Jerick McKinnon, start Isiah Pacheco
• A couple of weeks ago, I wrote about Jeff Wilson taking over the starting running back role in Miami. Well, as with most things in the NFL, things change, and they change fast. In Week 12, Jeff Wilson left the game early with a lower leg injury, while Raheem Mostert missed the game with a knee injury. Then, with both dealing with various ailments heading into Week 13, Wilson was only given three total opportunities with a 37.5% snap share (both low marks since joining the Dolphins). Though the Dolphins didn't use their backs much at all against the 49ers as Mostert was limited to just seven opportunities (all carries), but his snap share bounced up to 60.4% (his highest since Wilson came aboard). So far this season, Tua Tagovailoa has targeted running backs at an 18.1% rate, which is around league average. With both of these players sharing opportunities, it will be difficult to pick and choose who will have the hot hand in a given week. But, they have a ripe matchup against the Chargers, one of the league's worst rushing defenses, making them at least flex plays for Week 14.
  • Action: hold Jeff Wilson and Raheem Mostert and start against the Chargers in Week 13

Wide Receiver Usage

• The Colts' passing attack has been a roller coaster and I'm not totally sure why I'm putting myself through writing about them in Week 14, but here we are. Michael Pittman has caused frustration, doing just enough to want to put him into your lineup (he has double-digit PPR points in five of his last seven games), but has rarely exhibited the upside (no games above 20 PPR points since Week 7) that many people saw in him before the year. The other two noteworthy receivers in this offense - Parris Campbell and Alec Pierce - have been equally up-and-down. But they also play very different roles as Pierce's 12.5-yard average depth of target (aDOT) leads the Colts and Campbell's 5.8-yard aDOT is last on the team. Even though Pierce is tied for 14th in the league with 10 contested catches this season, he doesn't have a single end zone target since Week 1, which is a misuse of his talents. Pierce now has eight targets and at least a 20% target share in two of the last three games, giving some hope that his usage will continue. When the Colts return from their Week 14 bye, Pierce is a frisky option that offers some upside for teams desperate to make a splash in the first round of the fantasy football playoffs.
  • Action: add Alec Pierce
• This week's Monday Night Football matchup gave us an exciting final few minutes, but something interesting also happened with the Saints' wide receiver room. First of all, Chris Olave continues to be a machine and is my pick for offensive rookie of the year. Olave is one of just two rookie wide receivers averaging over two yards per route run against both man and zone coverage schemes this year - truly elite numbers. But who I really want to call your attention to is Rashid Shaheed, who now has back-to-back games with at least 50 receiving yards. He's done this on just seven total targets in those two games combined, but now he has an absurd 19.92 yards per reception on the season. In those two games, he's also run a couple more routes than Jarvis Landry, creating a situation in which Shaheed is, at worst, the 2b to Landry's 2a option. Personally, I would prefer the guy with deep-threat ability, especially if Jameis Winston ever returns (I'm not holding my breath, but I'm not ruling out the possibility of his return, either).
  • Action: add Rashid Shaheed as a deep flex option

Tight End Usage

• The hot name in the fantasy tight end streets recently is Chigoziem Okonkwo, the rookie tight end for the Tennessee Titans. The Maryland product has earned five targets in back-to-back games now and has at least 30 receiving yards (yes, the bar is that low) in five straight games. This past week, Okonkwo ran a season a route on a season-high 58.8% of the team's dropbacks and had a season-high 68 receiving yards, with 43 of them coming after the catch. Okonkwo and the Titans' remaining schedule is also somewhat favorable as three of their final four opponents (they play Jacksonville twice) rank among the top 12 easiest opponents based on 4for4's adjusted fantasy points allowed. Aside from Houston, they are also all teams that should put some pressure on Tennessee to throw the ball, too. I'm slightly bullish on Okonkwo and think he could provide some value if his usage continues to rise.
  • Action: add Chigoziem Okonkwo
• On Sunday, Noah Fant had one of the best fantasy days that he's had all year, scoring 14.2 PPR points, which was somehow good enough for the overall TE2 performance on the week. This is his second game in four weeks with at least 14 PPR points, but, unfortunately, his usage hasn't been the reason for his increased scoring. Fant still has just one game with a routes run rate over 60% this season, as teammate Will Dissly has run a route on 43.4% of the team's dropbacks. He's also averaging just four targets per game in his last four games, which is not a reliable or sustainable enough workload to make me want to plunge him into my starting lineup. But, if you're desperate and need something to cling to, Seattle ranks second in PROE since Week 10 at over 10%.
  • Action: sell Noah Fant