Week 14 Fantasy Football Start/Sit Candidates: Wide Receivers
Wondering whom to start and sit at wide receiver this week? Below are two top-notch start and two sit options at the wide receiver position for Week 14 of the 2022 NFL season.
Week 13 Review – half-PPR scoring
Starts
- WR Garrett Wilson (New York Jets) @ Minnesota Vikings – 20.2 fantasy points (WR9)
- WR A.J. Brown (Philadelphia Eagles) vs. Tennessee Titans – 27.9 fantasy points (WR3)
- WR Brandon Aiyuk (San Francisco 49ers) vs. Miami Dolphins – 7.1 fantasy points (WR49)
Sits
- WR Brandin Cooks (Houston Texans) vs. Cleveland Browns – 0.0 fantasy points (N/A)
Wide Receiver – Starts
D.J. Chark (Detroit Lions) vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Detroit Lions have an exceptional 27.5-point implied team total as home favorites versus the Minnesota Vikings. The game’s 52.5-point over/under is the highest Week 14 game total at BetMGM.
Field-stretching wide receiver D.J. Chark (ankle) was eased into the lineup in Week 11, following a seven-game absence. Chark’s role increased significantly in Weeks 12 and 13, where he commanded a 14.9% target share, the third highest on the team, per 4for4's NFL Player Stats Explorer. His 87.8% route participation rate was No. 1.
Minnesota has been pummeled by opposing wide receivers this year, allowing 33.5 half-PPR points per game to the position, the most in the NFL, per 4for4's Schedule-Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed. Their 280.8 passing yards allowed per game and 10.9% explosive pass plays allowed rate are likewise the highest in the league, per 4for4's NFL Team Stats Explorer.
Josh Palmer (Los Angeles Chargers) vs. Miami Dolphins
Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Josh Palmer boasts a 19.4% team target share, No.2 on the team behind only running back Austin Ekeler (20.9%). Palmer has developed into a reliable short-to-intermediate possession receiver with an 8.2-yard average depth of target (aDot). His 0.88 RACR (air yards conversion ratio), is tied for 25th among 61 NFL wide receivers with at least 50 targets. The RACR ratio puts him just ahead of stud wide receivers like the Seattle Seahawks’ Tyler Lockett and the Buffalo Bills’ Stefon Diggs.
The game, expected to be a back-and-forth offensive affair, has a 52.0-point over/under at BetMGM. Miami is currently allowing 231.5 passing yards per game, the 12th most in the NFL.
It is possible Los Angeles wide receiver Mike Williams returns this week after re-aggravating his high-ankle sprain in Week 11 but Williams failed to practice last week and wide receivers carry a 15.0% re-injury rate with the injury while experiencing an average 16.5% dip in fantasy production upon their initial return per DPT Adam Hutchison’s Injury Index.
*Check out the full WR Rankings here.
Wide Receiver - Sits
George Pickens (Pittsburgh Steelers) vs. Baltimore Ravens
Pittsburgh Steelers rookie wide receiver George Pickens has played terribly inefficiently in his inaugural season. Rookies often see significant bumps in both usage and production after their team’s bye but Pickens’ post-Week 9 bye data leaves heaps to be desired. His receiving data is shown in the table below with the post-bye ranked among 67 NFL wide receivers with at least 15 targets during that span.
| George Pickens Receiving Data | Team Target % | Targets per Route Run | Yards per Route Run |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-8 | 15.10% | 15.00% | 1.19 |
| Weeks 10-13 | 15.8% (No. 49) | 15.0% (T-No. 62) | 1.33 (No. 55) |
Pittsburgh’s game versus the Baltimore Ravens carries a highly concerning 37.0-point over/under that is not conducive to a pass-happy game script.
Baltimore’s 23.0 half-PPR points allowed to opposing wide receivers per game is the fourth-lowest rate in the league.
Nico Collins (Houston Texans)
Update: Nico Collis has been ruled out due to a foot injury.
Houston Texans wide receiver Nico Collins has produced a promising receiving profile (25.0% targets per route run and 1.79 yards per route run) but he cannot be trusted, given his offensive and overall game environment, having just once produced a double-digit half-PPR-point outing (10.9 points) this year.
The Houston Texans are massive +16.5-point road underdogs with an embarrassing 14.5-point implied team total.
Second-year quarterback Davis Mills was reinstalled as the team’s starter on Wednesday. His -0.08 expected points added per pass play versus the blitz ranks 21st among 33 NFL quarterbacks with at least 33 dropbacks. Houston’s 21.6% quarterback pressure rate allowed ranks 23rd.
The Dallas Cowboys’ dominant defensive front leads the league with an outrageous 25.1% quarterback pressure rate, keyed by their 23.7% five-man blitz rate, the 10th highest in the league.
Dallas is allowing just 180.0 passing yards per game and a 6.3% explosive pass plays allowed rate, both are the second-best rates in the league.
