Week 16 NFL Odds: Lookahead Lines Report

We're at the time of the year when travel and rest advantages can really start to play a factor, and we're quickly approaching 'Motivation Season' as teams play out the stretch around the holidays. This Week 16 slate is the Christmas slate, with the majority of it being played on Saturday, along with three Christmas Day games spread out as they do on Thanksgiving Day.

When I take a position on a lookahead line, I believe the current number will beat the closing line. It's an effort to get ahead of the market movement to land the best number. Basically, I'm parlaying my handicap. In essence, if I'm right in my Week 15 evaluation of the team and market, I will have an advantage in predicting where the line movement will come first in Week 16.

Friends don't let friends bet NFL sides on game day. I understand the appeal of getting action down on a game about to kick off, but please, for the love of all things sacred, don't do it. I understand that most casual bettors out there don't have time to comb through every news blurb and injury report the moment it comes out. It's difficult for most bettors to feel informed early in the week, or even more, right when next week's line is posted on Sunday evening for the following week's games.

In my opinion, the only way to consistently put yourself in a position to gain positive expected value (+EV) while betting on NFL sides is to beat the closing line. Sportsbooks gradually increase the limits they let bettors get down as the week progresses, indicating that the book feels they've priced the game correctly. So unless you're waiting later in the week because you're betting five-to-six figures on a side, you're +EV increases if you can get down on a number before it's sharpened by the whales.

This brief lookahead window offers a sneak peek at how teams are valued by bookmakers before the start of the week. It's also an opportunity to act before the games are posted and sharpened on Sunday evening—after the previous week's games are complete. These lines are a true indicator of how bookmakers value each team, without the influence of the recency bias that comes after watching eight hours of football earlier in the day. Depending on the bookmaker, and bettor for that matter, you may or may not be able to get the type of action down you'd like, depending on your unit sizing. The key is understanding where the value is on the board in any given week, and that is easier to do once you know what the opening number is.

For reference, I'll use the initial odds released by Westgate back in May to show you how the game opened. Then, I'll note the consensus for each current Week 16 lookahead line, with the spread listed based on the home team:

Week 16 Lookahead Lines Takeaways

• I'm always on the hunt for scheduling and travel advantages. These things are mostly already baked into the number, but there are instances each week that aren't accurately accounted for in the market.

Jaguars @ Jets (-2.5)

Week 15 matchups are key for both clubs, but both teams are holding onto playoff hopes in mid-December, which seemed far-fetched in mid-October. The weakest unit in this matchup is the Jacksonville defense, assuming Mike White is under center for the Jets, so anything under -3 feels like a solid look.

Bills @ Bears (+10)

The Bills have not been playing well enough to get caught sleeping here, and they control their destiny as it pertains to the AFC's top seed. That should keep them focused against a hapless Bears club that's battered and bruised on both sides of the ball. The good news for the Bills is the weather in Chicago might feel tropical compared to what they're looking at in Buffalo on Saturday night against the Dolphins.

Giants @ Vikings (-4.5)

Brian Daboll has used a combination of smoke and mirrors and exceptional red-zone performance to keep this Giants team afloat this season, but the house of cards is starting to collapse. Injuries on both sides of the ball have been their undoing, and I could see this climbing to -6 if the Vikings handle the Colts on Saturday afternoon.

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Bengals @ Patriots (+3)

The Bengals' schedule has been brutal down the stretch and will continue to be, but they've shown that they belong among the AFC's very best. New England, on the other hand, is still very much in the playoff picture at 7-6, and Week 17's matchup against Miami looms large for both club's chances to play meaningful games in January. They just don't have the offensive ceiling to compete against teams like Cincinnati. At or below -3, the Bengals are the play here.

Falcons @ Ravens (-6.5)

Lamar Jackson's status for this one is still up in the air, but this Ravens' rush defense has been terrific, presenting Desmond Ridder with quite a difficult challenge in his second career start. September was a bit rocky for this defense, but since Week 5, the Ravens' defense has led the league in rushing yards per game, rushing EPA per game allowed, and explosive rush rate allowed per game. That's tough sledding for a Falcons offense that's been reluctant to incorporate the forward pass into their game plan each week.

Eagles @ Cowboys (-1)

The Eagles continued dominance and reluctance to lose have made this game slightly less important than if they were a game apart in the standings, but it'll still be the highlight of the Christmas Eve afternoon window. This is Philadelphia's third straight road game, which is a tough draw late in the season made that much more difficult when cumulating with this inter-division rivalry. Regardless of Week 15's results, this is likely short on either side.

Broncos @ Rams (PK)

A Broncos and Rams island game on Christmas Day is the football equivalent of coal in your stocking.

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