Week 15 DraftKings & FanDuel Winning GPP Lineup Review

Dec 20, 2022

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In this space each week, I will review the winning lineups from the DraftKings Millionaire Maker and the FanDuel Sunday Million. Analyzing top lineups can help to tease out lineup-building strategies and offer clues on how you could have landed on a similar team.

DraftKings Week 15 Millionaire Winning Lineup

Ownership

Ownership in Winning DraftKings Millionaire Lineups, 2022
Week	QB	RB1	RB2	WR1	WR2	WR3	TE	Flex	Flex Pos	DEF	Cumulative
1	9.1%	14.2%	9.3%	27.1%	12.5%	11.2%	17.2%	7.9%	WR	3.0%	111.5%
2	3.6%	10.4%	8.4%	21.3%	19.7%	14.4%	9.2%	6.3%	WR	1.8%	95.1%
3	2.3%	16.0%	13.9%	16.9%	8.8%	5.6%	2.6%	1.4%	WR	15.7%	83.2%
4	6.8%	38.0%	15.2%	15.4%	11.4%	5.7%	19.8%	6.1%	RB	3.3%	121.7%
5	12.1%	14.1%	13.9%	27.0%	13.4%	7.5%	7.8%	9.6%	RB	22.7%	128.1%
6	4.4%	12.7%	8.5%	14.7%	4.9%	3.2%	2.6%	2.4%	WR	0.6%	54.0%
7	17.0%	46.7%	32.1%	15.4%	2.6%	2.1%	8.1%	21.4%	RB	43.8%	189.2%
8	21.1%	50.9%	12.5%	27.6%	28.8%	26.4%	1.6%	7.4%	WR	0.9%	177.2%
9	14.2%	40.5%	13.6%	14.9%	10.0%	8.5%	1.4%	12.2%	RB	10.2%	125.5%
10	29.4%	25.8%	10.6%	20.4%	16.9%	10.3%	16.0%	2.4%	WR	16.0%	147.8%
11	0.6%	13.4%	11.3%	14.1%	4.6%	3.7%	5.4%	5.6%	RB	6.6%	65.3%
12	7.0%	10.4%	3.5%	14.8%	13.1%	8.8%	17.4%	4.5%	WR	24.2%	103.7%
13	1.9%	14.9%	7.7%	33.9%	27.7%	10.1%	1.5%	5.1%	WR	4.0%	106.8%
14	2.5%	21.3%	7.4%	27.1%	11.3%	6.0%	3.6%	2.0%	RB	6.6%	87.8%
15	9.7%	11.0%	0.3%	18.6%	8.6%	8.6%	15.8%	3.1%	WR	4.3%	80.0%
AVG	9.4%	22.7%	11.2%	20.6%	13.0%	8.8%	8.7%	6.5%		10.9%	111.8%

With the third-lowest cumulative ownership for a winning Millionaire lineup this season, the average cumulative ownership for winners has almost completely normalized to the 108% average of winners from 2019–2021.

This is the fourth time that the winning lineup didn’t use a player with at least 20% ownership—that happened five times in 2021.

Stacks

Stack Used in Winning DraftKings Millionaire Lineups, 2022
Week	Primary Stack	Secondary Stack	Third Stack	Correlated Players
1	QB/TE	RB/Opp WR	WR/Opp WR	6
2	QB/WR/WR/Opp TE			4
3	QB/TE	RB/Opp WR		4
4	QB/WR/WR/Opp RB/Opp WR/Opp TE			6
5	QB/WR	RB/WR/TE	WR/Opp WR	7
6	QB/WR/Opp RB			3
7	QB/WR/TE	RB/Opp RB		5
8	QB/WR/WR	RB/DEF	WR/TE	7
9	QB/WR/TE/Opp WR	RB/DEF		6
10	QB/Opp WR	RB/Opp WR	TE/Opp WR	6
11	QB/WR/Opp RB			3
12	QB/RB	WR/Opp TE	WR/DEF	6
13	QB/WR	RB/TE	RB/WR	6
14	QB/WR/TE/Opp RB	WR/Opp RB		6
15	QB/RB/WR/TE	RB/Opp WR		6

Week 15 was the first time this year that the Millionaire winners stacked four players from the same team and just the second time since the beginning of 2020.

All but one winner this year has correlated at least one running back with another player from the same game.

Flex

Cumulative running back ownership was higher than a typical week and that became a reality with 40% of the field flexing a running back, compared to 33% of the time on average. Top-1% lineups used three running backs 48% of the time this week.

Leverage

Alvin Kamara was one of the most popular running backs on the slate, in more than 20% of lineups. The leverage doesn’t get much bigger with Tyler Allgeier in 0.3% of lineups in the same game. Rashid Shaheed was a similar game theory play against Kamara with Shaheed outscoring Kamara at almost seven times lower ownership and half the salary.

Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams all ended up in over 25% of lineups, making the Titans' defense a direct leverage spot going against that trio.

FanDuel Week 15 Sunday Million Winning Lineup

Ownership

Ownership in Winning FanDuel Sunday Million Lineups, 2022
Week	QB	RB1	RB2	WR1	WR2	WR3	TE	Flex	Flex Pos	DEF	Cumulative
1	9.9%	17.7%	9.1%	17.4%	12.6%	6.2%	14.5%	1.2%	RB	2.8%	91.4%
2	3.0%	7.9%	2.8%	9.9%	6.4%	5.9%	8.7%	0.5%	WR	4.6%	49.7%
3	4.4%	15.0%	5.0%	15.6%	5.6%	4.2%	4.1%	1.9%	RB	6.6%	62.4%
4	2.2%	31.2%	12.8%	11.7%	7.6%	7.6%	20.1%	3.9%	RB	4.8%	101.9%
5	17.8%	17.4%	13.0%	22.7%	14.7%	0.9%	3.8%	6.3%	RB	4.6%	101.2%
6	4.2%	29.8%	2.9%	13.7%	4.3%	4.0%	0.4%	0.7%	WR	8.0%	68.0%
7	16.2%	25.1%	22.6%	17.5%	5.4%	4.0%	11.3%	16.0%	RB	2.9%	121.0%
8	22.7%	61.6%	14.9%	25.7%	23.0%	10.3%	7.7%	14.3%	RB	17.0%	197.2%
9	7.2%	31.1%	8.8%	16.0%	12.1%	4.3%	1.1%	6.4%	RB	11.6%	98.6%
10	21.6%	26.0%	10.5%	24.4%	17.1%	6.3%	13.7%	5.2%	RB	12.4%	137.2%
11	24.2%	15.9%	4.6%	19.6%	4.7%	3.7%	7.8%	1.6%	RB	10.9%	93.0%
12	11.7%	15.9%	12.2%	12.9%	8.9%	4.3%	14.6%	2.2%	RB	12.8%	95.5%
13	8.8%	15.5%	3.5%	24.4%	15.6%	15.1%	8.5%	0.1%	WR	4.6%	96.1%
14	18.3%	11.9%	1.2%	22.5%	17.1%	13.2%	3.9%	11.2%	WR	4.7%	104.0%
15	20.4%	15.5%	12.2%	15.2%	14.8%	14.7%	6.6%	8.7%	RB	5.4%	113.5%
AVG	12.8%	22.5%	9.1%	17.9%	11.3%	7.0%	8.5%	5.3%		7.6%	102.0%

This marked just the third time in 2022, that the winner of the Sunday Million had no players under 5% ownership.

Only three winning Sunday Million lineups in 2022 have hit 120% cumulative ownership. In the previous three seasons, 42% of winning lineups had cumulative ownership of at least 120%.

Stacks

Stacks Used in Winning FanDuel Sunday Million Lineups, 2022
Week	Primary Stack	Secondary Stack	Third Stack	Correlated Players
1	QB/TE			2
2	QB/WR/WR/Opp TE	RB/Opp WR		6
3	QB/TE	RB/WR/DEF	RB/WR	7
4	QB/RB/WR/TE/Opp WR	RB/WR		7
5	QB/WR/WR	RB/TE		5
6	QB/WR	WR/TE		4
7	QB/WR/WR			3
8		RB/WR	WR/Opp WR/Opp TE	5
9	QB/WR/TE	RB/WR		5
10	QB/TE	RB/WR		4
11		RB/WR/Opp RB	WR/Opp TE	5
12	QB/RB/TE	WR/WR		5
13	QB/WR	RB/DEF	WR/TE	6
14	QB/WR/Opp WR			3
15	QB/WR/Opp RB			3

No other winner this year correlated a quarterback with the opposing team’s running back—this combination was only found in two other winning lineups between 2020 and 2021.

Leverage

Miles Sanders was on over 25% of rosters so while the Eagles passing game was popular as well, stacking them with the opposing running back was a unique combination.