David Montgomery's Fantasy Football Draft Stock With the Detroit Lions

Former Chicago Bear David Montgomery has found a new home in the rival NFL North, by signing a three-year $18 million deal ($11 million guarantee) with the Detroit Lions. This decision indicates that the team is likely moving on from Jamaal Williams, deploying a split backfield between Monty and fourth-year RB D'Andre Swift.

*Update: the Lions drafted Jahmyr Gibbs in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft, further muddying up the RB room. But also traded D'Andre Swift to the Eagles on Day 3.

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David Montgomery’s Early-Down Resume

The 25-year-old is no stranger to heavy workloads, as Montgomery has averaged 229 rush attempts per season since entering the league in 2019 which averages out to the 12th most among RBs in that time frame. His output has been a mixed bag, posting half-PPR finishes per game of RB8 and RB17 in 2020 and 2021 respectively, with a drop-down to RB28 in 2022.

Last year is viewed as a down year for Montgomery. Still, interestingly enough, the RB was reasonably efficient, posting the 14th-most yards after contact per carry (minimum 100 attempts) and he was fifth in broken tackle percentage (10%) with the eighth most broken tackles (20) among RBs with 100 carries. Here’s a look at where that efficiency sits compared to Montgomery’s three other years in the NFL.

^{*All data courtesy of 4for4's NFL Player Stat Explorer}

Considering what he’s being brought in to do for Detroit—which is the early-down grinder with the ability to punch it in the end zone—Montgomery fits the bill.

He’ll also be getting an upgrade at offensive line which doesn’t hurt his potential, as the Lions sat seventh last year in adjusted line yards according to Football Outsiders (4.66), while the Bears ranked 11th (4.52).

David Montgomery vs. Jamaal Williams as a Fantasy Asset

Williams had an incredible 2022 season for those Zero-RB drafters who snagged him in the early 14th round at pick 157.9 in Underdog drafts. The 27-year-old posted a career-record 17 touchdowns which blew the prior high of four he scored in his rookie campaign clear out of the stratosphere. As friend of 4for4 Ian Hartitz so perfectly pointed out here, 13 of those scores came from within the four-yard line, and 10 were basically falling in the end zone.

Jamaal Williams scored 17 touchdowns last season. Yards gained on each:



51 yards

13

7

4

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) March 12, 2023

That type of touchdown dependency is not something we can rely on for fantasy purposes, but the key here is that Montgomery is not only a better rusher between the tackles than Williams but his pass game prowess sets him above in this new offense. Monty was 13th among RBs in yards after catch per reception with 8.3 last season (minimum 20 targets) and was 14th in routes run percentage (42.9%). The former Bear had an 11.8% target share in Chicago which sat 11th.

Backfield Outlook for the Lions

It would seem that D'Andre Swift becomes the odd man out in this crowded backfield with rookie Jahmyr Gibbs now in the mix, at least as long as he's in a Lions' uniform. Swift appeared to be in the dog house of sorts last season and doesn’t seem to fit the grinding prototype Dan Campbell craves from his offensive weapons. Swift has missed 10 contests in his three years as a professional, and his usage is headed in the wrong direction as he saw the least number of carries in his career (99) in 2022 and his target volume went down from 78 to 70 with just 48 receptions last season. (Swift was traded to the Eagles on Day 3 of the NFL Draft. )

We assumed that Montgomery was signed to take the early-down snaps and if Gibbs misses any time, is capable of handling legitimate passing work, as well. Gibbs was drafted at pick No. 12 and with that type of draft capital, he's tough to ignore during draft season.

With significant projected rushing volume and the takeover of goal-line work left by Williams, Montgomery’s draft stock should rise up to fantasy RB2 territory, with Gibbs also projecting as a fantasy RB2. Swift's ADP should nosedive as a result, and if he does remain a Lion, he could be of some value in best ball formats.

Bottom Line

• Despite the perceived down year for David Montgomery in 2022, the RB was fairly efficient across the board.
• Signing with the Lions gives Montgomery a meaty role vacated by Jamaal Williams in an up-and-coming offense. He’ll also get two revenge games per season which sweeten the pot.
• With the addition of rookie Jahmyr Gibbs, he and Monty are both considered RB2s for fantasy purposes.