2023 Baltimore Ravens: NFL Betting Odds and Offseason Notes
Sure, it's early, but sportsbooks are already giving us an early look at divisional betting odds and win totals, so we can't ignore them. The new league year has started, and free agent signings and subsequent roster moves have been rolling in non-stop over the past few weeks. We're unpacking the NFL Draft weekly on Move The Line, and we're still awaiting the schedule release, which should come in mid-May, though we do know who each team plays.
As of this writing, we have a partial picture of what's to come and how to handicap each division, but there are impactful data points still to come over the coming months. So with that said, let's look at each team's current status and how to bet on them.
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Baltimore Ravens
Schedule Notes
All AFC North teams face the AFC South and NFC West this season, with their additional three games coming against teams that finished in the same place in their respective division (two in conference, one non-conference), which I'll list below.
2023 Divisional Odds: +270 (Caesars)
2023 Win Total: 8.5
2022 Record: 10-7
2022 Offensive EPA Rank: 17th
2022 Defensive EPA Rank: 14th
Effective Cap Space (per OverTheCap.com): $3.6 million
First-Round Draft Pick: No. 22
Total Draft Picks: 5
3 Unique 2023 Opponents: Miami, Detroit, @ Los Angeles Chargers
I don't want to oversimplify the Ravens' offseason, but it all boils down to what happens with Lamar Jackson's contract situation. As you've heard by now, contract negotiations have sputtered, leading to Jackson requesting a trade. Baltimore opted to place the non-exclusive tag on Jackson, meaning he's eligible to talk with other teams during NFL free agency, but the Ravens maintain the right of first refusal. They can match any offer, but if Baltimore opts against matching it, they'll receive two first-round picks from the team who signs Jackson.
Free Agency Notes
The Ravens have been active in free agency but mostly just resigning back-of-the-roster depth. They've lost multiple key contributors from 2022, including safety Chuck Clark (Jets), defensive lineman Calais Campbell (Falcons), and guard Ben Powers (Broncos), who played every snap for Baltimore last season, allowing just one quarterback hit and zero sacks on the year.
Remaining Roster Priorities
The Ravens have needs at a handful of positions, primarily at cornerback and wide receiver, and with just five picks in this month's draft, they're a great trade-back candidate at pick 22. A lot of mock drafts, including my own, have them taking a wide receiver with their first-round selection. It's a position that they desperately need to get better at, regardless of who's at quarterback for them in 2023. Cornerback Marcus Peters is likely moving on as well, so they'll need to pick off some of the corner depth in the draft as well.
How To Bet On The Baltimore Ravens
This team went 10-7 in 2022, with Lamar Jackson playing just 12 games. The infrastructure is so strong in Baltimore, but they have a few key decisions to make to ensure that they stay in the mix. Due to Lamar Jackson's status, the Ravens' market prices are a bit paralyzed right now. I like the over on 8.5 wins, but I'm not willing to lay the -140 on it until we get clarity on Lamar. If you like the Ravens, I'd suggest waiting and getting a good price on over 9.5 wins, which we'll inevitably see if and when Jackson returns. Getting the AFC South on the schedule is a gift, but their unique three, the Lions, Chargers, and Dolphins, is one of the toughest draws in the league.
