2023 Los Angeles Chargers: NFL Betting Odds and Offseason Notes
Sure, it's early, but sportsbooks are already giving us an early look at divisional betting odds and win totals, so we can't ignore them. The new league year has started, and free agent signings and subsequent roster moves have been rolling in non-stop over the past few weeks. We're unpacking the NFL Draft weekly on Move The Line, and we're still awaiting the schedule release, which should come in mid-May, though we do know who each team plays.
As of this writing, we have a partial picture of what's to come and how to handicap each division, but there are impactful data points still to come over the coming months. So with that said, let's look at each team's current status and how to bet on them.
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Los Angeles Chargers
Schedule Notes
All AFC West teams face the AFC East and NFC North this season, with their additional three games coming against teams that finished in the same place in their respective division (two in conference, one non-conference), which I'll list below.
2023 Divisional Odds: +340 (Caesars)
2023 Win Total: 9.5
2022 Record: 10-7
2022 Offensive EPA Rank: 16th
2022 Defensive EPA Rank: 19th
Effective Cap Space (per OverTheCap.com): $11.7 million
First-Round Draft Pick: No. 21
Total Draft Picks: 7
3 Unique 2023 Opponents: Baltimore, Dallas, @ Tennessee
The Chargers battled through injuries to key contributors all season long, only to get bounced in the wild-card round in devastating fashion. The good news for Chargers fans is the 27-point blown lead was the final nail in offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi's proverbial coffin after Lombardi was the coaching antithesis of a talent maximizer. In comes new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, who was forced out of Dallas for 'wanting to light up the scoreboard.' Ok.
This remains one of the league's more talented rosters, and while injuries exposed a lack of depth at a handful of positions, the impending contract extension for Justin Herbert only makes things more challenging and weighs heavy on this team's chances to win now.
Free Agency Notes
The Chargers freed up a sizable about of money by restructuring the deals of Khalil Mack, Joey Bosa, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams. They'll be running it back with the majority of the 2023 roster. They added linebacker Erik Kendricks (Vikings) to replace Drue Tranquill, who was a surprising standout in 2023 but left for Kansas City in free agency. The majority of their free agent moves to date have been resigning in-house players, like DL Morgan Fox and offensive tackle Trey Pipkins. Again, the Chargers have money to spend, so I don't think they're done, even though the initial wave of signings has come and gone.
Remaining Roster Priorities
The sudden retirement of safety Nasir Adderly and the likely departure of free-agent slot corner Bryce Callahan leaves holes in the back half of the Chargers defense. The majority of mock drafts have the Chargers adding offensive talent at pick 21, and while I think that's possible, I wouldn't be surprised to see them add to the secondary with their first selection. Additionally, last season's big free agent addition, J.C. Jackson, struggled when on the field, so adding talent at corner and safety is a priority.
The core pass-catchers, both at wide receiver and tight end, are all returning in 2023, but a field-stretching wideout is needed for depth with DeAndre Carter now in Las Vegas. With Kyle Van Noy likely to sign elsewhere, this club could use some help along the defensive line, both at edge rusher and along the interior. Overall, this roster is good enough to contend when it's at full strength.
How To Bet On The Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers were a trendy 2022 pick, with a lot of folks thinking the Chiefs were due to take a step back. Whoopsies. A playoff defeat like that, as tough as it was for the fan base and everyone in the organization, can be a galvanizing force. That's the best-case scenario for the 2023 Chargers. I believe the Lombardi-to-Moore move has the potential to be a significant upgrade, and I'd love to see this team have one year with unprecedented injury luck instead of always being on the wrong side of it. I can't advise backing them to win the division, but if Moore can unlock another gear in Justin Herbert, Chargers fans will get the opportunity to get their hearts broken in the playoff once again.
Or maybe not.
If they can add contributors to this secondary, I'm in on over 9.5 wins.
