2023 NFL Draft: Top 10 Pick Odds, Bets, and Predictions
Figuring out which players are going to be a top-10 pick this year may be tougher than ever. Sportsbooks have adjusted accordingly, listing tons of fringe players but not many “locks.”
This might surprise people, but betting on the NFL Draft is far and away the best event of the year to wager on. The reason is that it’s an information market. These types of markets are the easiest to make money on because no game has to be played.
When you bet on an NFL game, you can have the best handicap in the world and have a massive edge according to your numbers. Yet, so much can go wrong. All it takes is a few things you can’t possibly account for in your handicap like one cornerback to trip, a field goal kicker getting the yips, a few bad calls and so many other possibilities for your bet to go sideways.
Betting on the NFL Draft doesn’t have that type of variance. Once you know a team is keyed in on a certain player or position, that’s it. Obviously reading the tea leaves from plugged-in reporters and getting good information is vital.
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2023 NFL Draft: Top 10 Pick Odds, Bets, and Predictions
The odds to be a top-10 pick are tougher than ever with sportsbooks removing a lot of the sure things we can lay plenty of juice on. These odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
- Christian Gonzalez: -220
- Peter Skoronski: -185
- Bijan Robinson: +100
- Nolan Smith: +100
- Lukas Van Ness: +260
- Darnell Wright: +290
- Broderick Jones: +700
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba: +1000
- Myles Murphy: +1000
- Joey Porter Jr. +2000
- Hendon Hooker: +5000
- Jordan Addison: +5000
- Zay Flowers: +5000
- Dalton Kincaid: +5000
Top 10 Pick Bets and Notes
The top-10 picks are tough to parse through as Fanduel has slapped a lot of juice on the top of the board.
Christian Gonzalez (-220)
Gonzalez may be the heaviest favorite here but I would not lay the juice on this. With each mock draft that I do, different scenarios can lead to different players falling out of the top 10. Gonzales is frequently one of those players if there is a run on quarterbacks early.
Peter Skoronski (-185)
Skoronski is rumored to be in play for the Raiders at 7 and Eagles at 10 but he isn’t the top player on the Raiders board. I’m willing to rule out him going to the Bears due to his lack of length. With that being said, it’s tough for me to lay -185 on a player where you are primarily banking on one team (the Eagles).
Bijan Robinson (+100)
This is an interesting way of playing a derivative of his draft position which currently sits at 12.5. With that bet, you have to pay -205 on the whereas for him to be a top-10 pick, you are getting even money. He is a perfect fit for the Falcons and there have been rumors around them selecting him at pick 8. The Eagles are also very interested in Bijan Robinson as well after losing Miles Sanders.
Nolan Smith (+100)
If there is an early run-on defender, Nolan Smith could easily find himself in the top 10 as early as 8 to the Falcons, 9 to the Bears, or 10 to the Eagles. Some teams legitimately view him as the third-best edge rusher in the draft after Tyree Wilson and Will Anderson. If both of them are selected early, Nolan Smith could easily land in the top 10.
Lukas Van Ness (+260)
There are differing opinions on Van Ness. The Bears, Eagles, and Falcons are all reportedly considering Van Ness in the top 10. At +260 this isn’t a bad look considering he is probably as likely as Nolan Smith to land in the top 10.
Darnell Wright (+290)
Darnell Wright’s only out in the top 10 is the Chicago Bears at pick 9 so you are probably better off betting that exactly than the top 10 at this price.
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