2023 NFL Win Totals: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Under 6.5 Wins
The 'Tompa Bay' era came to an end after a 31-14 home playoff loss to Dallas sealed their 2022 fate. The Buccaneers needed all 18 weeks to win the league's worst division, earning their second consecutive NFC South crown with an 8-9 record last season. All in all, the Tom Brady experience was a successful one for the Buccaneers. They won a Super Bowl and two division titles in the three seasons Brady was on the team, and while 2023 brings a lot of change, there's a handful of talent left behind in Brady's wake. Now when I say handful, it's not so much like Boban Marjanovic, but think more like Kristin Wiig on SNL.
The 2023 offseason has been a busy one for the Buccaneers. Todd Bowles is back as the head coach and defacto defensive coordinator, along with new offensive coordinator Dave Canales, who joins the team after spending the past 12 seasons on Seattle's offensive staff. They entered the offseason in salary cap hell and have been forced to let multiple starters depart to prevent carrying the cap restraints over to 2024, and they've succeeded in doing so. At the same time, it's ravaged the depth of the 2023 roster. Cluster injuries at any position, and this house of cards collapses in a major way.
You're nothing in this league without above-average quarterback play. It's the harsh reality of today's NFL. With the free agent market barren and the Buccaneers without the draft capital to get a long-term solution in April's NFL Draft, the 2023 Buccaneers will be led by former No. 1 overall pick-turned-journeyman Baker Mayfield. Optimistic Bucs fans will fondly harken back to the playoff run in Cleveland or bemoan the bad breaks and supporting casts that Mayfield has played with since entering the league. If that's you, stop it. I'm sorry, but we just have too much evidence to show us who Baker Mayfield is. Last season, 46 NFL quarterbacks took at least 125 snaps. Mayfield ranked dead last in completion percentage over expectation (CPOE), 45th in success rate, and 43rd in EPA per play, besting the likes of Colt McCoy, Sam Ehlinger, and Skylar Thompson.
Mayfield's supporting cast at the skill positions is above-average, led by the duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Second-year running back Rachaad White will likely be called upon to fill the inefficient void left behind by Leonard Fournette. He'll be working behind an offensive line that is in a transitional phase after the team traded Shaq Mason to Houston and Donovan Smith left for Kansas City in free agency.
Tristian Wirfs will kick over to left tackle, and second-round pick Cody Mauch will be asked to fill Mason's role in his rookie season. As is the case with most of the position groups on this roster, the starting offensive line looks serviceable, assuming none of them miss a start.
Defensively, Todd Bowles has always been a talent maximizer, but the theme from the offensive side of the ball remains. Tampa Bay's depth on defense is razor-thin at all levels, particularly at cornerback behind Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis. Dean played in a career-high 15 games last season, while Davis has yet to top 14 games played in any of his four seasons. Not great, Bob. In addition, undersized rookie defensive tackle Calijah Kancey will be asked to give the pass rush a spark after it finished 22nd in ESPN's pass rush win rate last season and is set to run back the same edge group in 2023.
The death knell for the Buccaneers comes via the schedule. I took to Twitter to wax poetic about the schedule yesterday, citing each team's "Unique 3". These are the three games that each team plays that differ from their divisional counterparts, and they're based on your divisional finish the prior year. Despite finishing just 8-9, the Buccaneers were the belle of the ball in the NFC South, but here's how that impacts their 2023.
NFC South faces the AFC South and NFC North. The Unique 3 for each:
Saints - NYG, @ NE, @ LAR
Falcons - WSH, @ NYJ, @ ARZ
Panthers - DAL, @ MIA, @ SEA
Buccaneers - PHI, @ BUF, @ SF— Ryan Noonan (@RyNoonan) May 10, 2023
With no long-term answer at quarterback on the roster and with two top-tier prospects on deck in the 2024 Draft, Caleb Williams, and Drake Maye, the Buccaneers will hopefully learn from the Texans' mishaps in 2022 and fold like a cheap shirt. I like this down to 5.5, assuming the juice remains in the -110 to -120 range.
Best Bet: Buccaneers Under 6.5 Wins (-120, BetMGM)
