2023 NFL Offensive Rookie Of The Year: Best Bets and Odds

Even though the first three offensive players selected in April's NFL Draft were quarterbacks, a running back sits atop the odds board for 2023's NFL Rookie Of The Year. Falcons running back Bijan Robinson is the current front-runner for the award, sitting between +250 and +300, depending on your sportsbook.

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Last 10 NFL OROY Winners

Noteworthy Offensive Rookie Of The Year Trends

• From 2013 to 2018, four running backs took home the award, but none have won it since Saquon Barkley back in 2018.
• Cam Newton (2011) and Kyler Murray (2019) are the only first-overall picks to win the award in the last 11 years.
• 49 of the 56 winners were drafted in the first two rounds.
• Two recent winners, Alvin Kamara (3rd round, 2017) and Dak Prescott (4th round, 2016), buck that trend.
• No offensive lineman or tight end has ever won the award.

Offensive Rookie Of The Year Best Bets

Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts (+900, Caesars)

I've already written extensively on why I believe Anthony Richardson has a path to Year 1 success, and the early reports coming out of Indianapolis have not squashed my optimism. The Colts signed Gardner Minshew earlier this offseason, and his familiarity with new head coach Shane Steichen's offense helps alleviate the need to rush Richardson into the starting lineup in Week 1. But Steichen's comments post-draft are very clear. Richardson is going to play sooner than later. In his post-draft press conference, Steichen said, "I think the development of players comes with more experience... I think when you play more, that's how you develop... practice reps, game reps, I think that's how you develop."

The low-hanging fruit here in projecting Richardson's early-career development is Steichen's success in developing Jalen Hurts. Hurts is not nearly the athlete that Richardson is, and he had limitations as a passer, both in terms of arm strength and accuracy, during his time at Alabama. I believe that Richardson has been unfairly tagged as a project when in reality, he has all the traits that you'd want a quarterback to have in today's game.

The Jaguars are the clear favorites in the AFC South, but if the Colts are competitive and Anthony Richardson makes 14-15 starts, he's far and away the best quarterback value on the board.

Devon Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins (+3500, Caesars)

The Dolphins brought back last season's running back tandem of Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson, but with only four selections in April's draft, Decon Achane's selection speaks to the team's desire to upgrade the running back room for 2023.

At 5-foot-9, 185 pounds, Achane isn't likely to withstand the every-play pounding of a three-down NFL running back at his current size. Based on his history, it's unlikely that Dolphins' head coach Mike McDaniel will look to use him that way regardless of his build, but Achane is an exciting prospect who's more than just a speed back. According to PFF, Achane forced a missed tackle on 29% of his career attempts, tied for fifth among Power Five backs since 2020. He runs with terrific balance, with a highlight reel full of sharp and sudden cuts.

Part of the angle in betting award futures is looking for ways to get access to a team that you're bullish on without betting into the shorter, more liquid markets like divisional odds and win totals. If Miami exceeds expectations in 2023, Devon Achane's highlight reel runs will likely be a big reason why.

Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs (+3500, FanDuel)

Back when we recorded our Move The Line episode breaking down our favorite plays in the awards market, Rashee Rice was 66/1. This play is far less appealing at 35/1, but I still believe it's one of the better plays on the board.

Rice is 6-foot-1, 204 pounds, and while not a burner, he showed above-average after-the-catch and contested-catch skills last season at SMU. He played the majority of his 2021 snaps in the slot but really thrived in 2022 when he was moved out wide. He totaled 96 catches on 156 targets last season, hauling in 14 scores and 1344 yards along the way. As a rookie, Rice is stepping into a role in the league's top offense led by the best quarterback in the world and is surrounded by question marks in the Kansas City receivers' room. He was third in the nation in deep catches and ninth in screen catches, both of which are staples of this offense.