Jahan Dotson to Make a Commanding Second-Year Fantasy Football Leap

Jahan Dotson often gets overlooked in the 2022 class of receivers. There's plenty of talk about Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, and Drake London, but not much love for the former Nittany Lion. Unfortunately, missing five games will often have that effect, but fantasy managers shouldn't ignore last year's 16th overall pick. Dotson showed plenty of promise in his rookie season and is in a good position to have an excellent second year, giving him the potential to be one of this year's better value picks for fantasy managers.

Drafting Dotson doesn't come without some risk because the Washington quarterback situation is far from perfect and it's possible whoever wins that competition won't be good enough to sustain two fantasy-relevant receivers. The organization will also implement a new offensive system under Kansas City's former offensive coordinator, Eric Bieniemy. The amount of change Washington will be attempting to handle this season could result in some early-season growing pains, limiting the fantasy appeal. Nonetheless, fantasy managers should be encouraged by Dotson's first season making him just the kind of player we should be betting on.

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Jahan Dotson's Rookie Season Was Better Than You Think

Deciphering Dotson's first year in the NFL isn't as easy as it is with other prospects. That's because not only did he miss five games right in the middle of the season, but he also caught passes from three different quarterbacks. Unfortunately, this creates a lot of extra variables that need to be accounted for.

Below you'll find a table of how Dotson played at different parts of the season using the 4for4 NFL Player Stat Explorer. In Week 4, Dotson suffered a hamstring injury that caused him to miss the next five weeks. When he returned he played three games with a route participation lower than 80%. He cleared that number in all of his other eight games, making these contests (Weeks 1–3 and 13–18) the ideal sample to look at.

Looking at the table above, it's easy to see the kind of improvement Dotson displayed as the season progressed. When he returned to a full-time role in Week 13, Dotson's 12.58 half-PPR PPG ranked as the WR15 over that span. Impressively, Dotson actually outperformed teammate Terry McLaurin in several metrics, including target share, targets per game, air yards per game, yards per route run, and targets per route run. The kind of performance Dotson showcased late in the season should give fantasy managers confidence in investing in him, especially with another full offseason with the team. It's not just the numbers that were exciting either. Dotson certainly caught the eye of Reception Perception.

There is an awful lot of green up there, exhibiting that the success you can see in the box scores is backed up by what the film says. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception had incredibly high praise for the former Penn State star in his rookie profile stating,

"Dotson was a rock-solid separator as a rookie. His 69.9% success rate vs. man shows his skills as a route runner working outside. He was one of the best prospects from the 2022 draft class at beating zone coverage and that translated well with an 80.1% success rate in the pros. What’s really impressive and shows the depth of his skill set is Dotson’s 78.9% success rate vs. press. That checks in at the 87th percentile. Dotson showed a ton of detail and fire in his release moves off the line... At worst Dotson looks like a rock-solid No. 2 receiver for years to come. But he checks so many boxes that we want out of legit No. 1 receivers. He separates all over the field, wins in the vertical game, is a strong technician, and wins contested catches."

Dotson wasted no time displaying his route-running acumen and that skillset should make him a very strong No. 2 option in Washington's offense opposite McLaurin. His five missed games were unfortunate, but they are helping to keep his current price in check. Whenever the numbers coincide with the film and vice versa, especially for a first-round rookie, excitement should be sky-high. While that hasn't happened yet, fantasy managers should expect his ADP—currently at 77.2—to continue to climb throughout the summer.

The player I was most surprised by?



Jahan Dotson



The idea he'd be a slot WR who plays bigger than his frame *totally* undersold him



Dotson has legit route manipulation. A smooth operator inside and outside



And my favorite pick on @UnderdogFantasy right now as WR41 (80th ovr) pic.twitter.com/Po6uITbUEg

— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) May 25, 2023

The New Look Washington Offense

This offseason head coach Ron Rivera decided to let go of Scott Turner and hire the Chiefs' offensive coordinator, Eric Bieniemy, finally offering him the opportunity to call plays. He's been working under an offensive guru, Andy Reid since 2013 and has been the Chiefs' offensive coordinator since he received a promotion in 2018. Certainly, the success he's had in that role needs to be taken with a grain of salt with Reid as the head coach/play-caller and with star quarterback, Patrick Mahomes helping him out. However, Mahomes spoke very highly of Bieniemy, quoted saying,

"It’s so past deserves, man. He’s done everything the right way," Mahomes said. "He’s been a part of this offense and this team for so long, holds everyone accountable, is creative in making up plays for us. I don’t know why he hasn’t been hired. But it’s been great for us, because we’ve had one of the best coaches in the league with us for way long past due."

It's more than fair to expect that Bieniemy has learned quite a bit from Reid and should be a significant improvement from his predecessor in Washington. In three years as Washington's offensive coordinator, Turner has never coordinated an offense that ranked higher than 23rd in points or 20th in total yards. The passing attack in Washington has also left a lot to be desired during his tenure.

We don't exactly know what to expect from possible starter and second-year player, Sam Howell, but based on the play from last year's starter Carson Wentz, it's fair to expect the Washington pass-catchers will be receiving an upgrade in quarterback play. Heinicke was viewed as an upgrade for the Commanders last season and in a lot of ways he was, but that was only because of how poorly Wentz played.

Terry McLaurin's yard per route run rate with/without Carson Wentz in 2022:

(Rank among 87 qualified WRs)



2.71 (2nd) — no Wentz

1.39 (51st) — Wentz



Jahan Dotson's YPRR with/without Wentz:

1.97 (19th) — no Wentz

0.94 (78th) — Wentz

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) May 30, 2023

Below is a table showing the efficiency of Jacoby Brissett, Wentz, Heinicke, and Howell from last season. For the former three signal callers, you'll find their rank in parathesis among the 35 quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks. Due to Howell only having 25 dropbacks, he did not qualify.

While Howell appears to be a worse option than Brissett in 2023, it's important to remember we're dealing with an extremely small sample size of a rookie. He only started one game and attempted just 19 passes. Of the remaining three, it's clear Wentz was much worse than the other two. For the most part, Brissett out-performed Heinicke outside of his touchdown rate, which is something he's struggled without his career.

The quarterback questions are keeping Dotson's hype in check; in some respects, that's completely fair. The Washington offense could be led by a 2022 fifth-round pick this season, which is far from ideal from a fantasy perspective. He's currently being drafted on Underdog as the WR40 with an ADP of 77.2, which will cost fantasy managers a seventh-round pick.

Dotson is the WR34 at 4for4, indicating there's some upside to be had at his current price tag in Underdog drafts. When it comes to an archetype of player fantasy managers want to be targeting, Dotson certainly qualifies. He's a former first-round pick, entering his second year who continued to get better as the season went along.

Bottom Line

• In the last five games of the season, Dotson performed better than McLaurin in some areas and displayed a significant improvement from the start of the season.
• The hire of Eric Bieniemy could very likely have a positive effect on the team's passing game, not only in its efficiency but in the overall passing volume, as well.
• There are some quarterback questions as it remains to be seen who the starter will be for this season. Regardless of who wins the job, there will be concerns about both players' ability to support two fantasy-relevant receivers.
• Dotson is the exact kind of player fantasy managers should be betting on in the middle rounds of their drafts. He's a former first-round pick, entering his second season following a sneaky-good rookie season.
• The former Nittany Lion performed exceptionally on film, evidenced by Matt Harmon's Reception Perception.
• Fantasy managers should be all over Dotson at his current price (WR40) and shouldn't be afraid to reach a little to get him on their roster because of his talent profile—he is 4for4's WR34.