Can George Pickens Continue to Ascend in 2023?

As the 52nd pick and the ninth wide receiver selected in the 2022 NFL Draft, Pittsburgh Steelers' George Pickens exceeded expectations in his rookie year with 84 catches for 801 yards and four touchdowns. With an ADP of 73.7 as the WR39, we analyze what 2023 has in store for the talented Pickens.

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Pickens' Rookie Season

The Steelers trusted Pickens with a significant role in their offense from Week 1. The rookie finished the season with a 76% snap share, was fourth among all rookies with 84 targets, and commanded a 15.5% target share. Pickens finished the season with an average depth of target of 15.6, the third highest among all NFL wide receivers.

Pickens led the Steelers in NFL passer rating when targeted with a rating of 109.3, 48.1 points higher than his teammate Diontae Johnson. He excelled on deep routes, displaying excellent body control and an incredible catch radius to make eye-catching plays downfield.

What was your favorite George Pickens catch from 2022? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/5VEQIeD1WT

— NFL (@NFL) June 5, 2023

Pickens' performances were seemingly a factor in the Steelers' decision to trade Chase Claypool to the Chicago Bears in November, with Mike Tomlin citing "depth" as one of the reasons they chose to move on.

Finishing with 52 receptions for 801 yards and four touchdowns in his inaugural was impressive, but the production of fellow rookie wide receivers Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson overshadowed Pickens' achievements. However, Pickens had to compete with target-hog Diontae Johnson, emerging tight end Pat Freiermuth, dual-threat running back Najee Harris, and a struggling passing attack led by rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett.

Competition for Targets

Pickens' ADP has dropped just 2.9 places since the Steelers acquired Allen Robinson from the Los Angeles Rams, and this suggests the fantasy community is not ready to forgive Robinson's disappointing performances in the last two seasons. The veteran has a point to prove, and the Steelers knew that when they invested meager draft capital in the trade – essentially moving down just 17 spots in the seventh round of the 2023 draft.

Barring an incredible turnaround in Robinson's fortunes, Pickens' main competition for targets should once again be Johnson, Freiermuth, and Harris.

Pickens' Outlook for 2023

The most critical factor in determining Pickens' 2023 fantasy production will be the development of sophomore quarterback Pickett. As a rookie, Pickett had his struggles, surpassing 200 yards only four times in 13 games and never throwing more than a single touchdown in a game. His air yards per game ranked a derisory 32nd among all quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks.

However, it would be no surprise if Pickett improved in year two. We saw some signs of development from the then-24-year-old as the 2022 season unfolded. Eight of Pickett's nine interceptions came in his first five starts, compared with only one in his final eight. Five of his seven touchdowns came in his last seven games. It was encouraging to note that he delivered some notable clutch plays down the stretch, throwing game-winning touchdowns against the Raiders and the Ravens. Granted, the sample size is small, and there's plenty of room and need for further development, but Pickett was trending in the right direction.

Furthermore, adding first-round tackle Broderick Jones should help a Steelers' offensive line that struggled in 2022. The rookie has been "turning heads" while taking reps with the Steelers' first team and is the presumed starter at left tackle. The entire offense could undoubtedly benefit from improved play from the offensive line.

Ultimately, Pickens has demonstrated he possesses the potential to become a low-end WR1 in the optimal setup, and those who play in dynasty formats should make him a priority. However, for those who prefer redraft formats, it's difficult to imagine how Pickens could exceed 100 targets in 2023, considering the competition on the roster.

Pickens' best chance of establishing greater fantasy value in 2023 is to improve on the four touchdowns from 2022, and that's well within his range of outcomes.

Bottom Line

• Pickens' fantasy production in 2023 is heavily reliant on the continued development of Pickett. Given what we saw from the rookie quarterback down the stretch, it's reasonable to expect Pickett to improve, providing optimism for Pickens' outlook.
• Competition for targets is fierce on the Steelers offense. Pickens will be vying with Johnson, Freiermuth, Robinson, and Harris, and Johnson will almost certainly lead the team in targets once again. However, Pickens is the best deep threat on the team, with the rare ability to track deep balls and make incredible catches. If your league format rewards big play scoring over PPR, Pickens should be a priority.
• With an ADP of 73.7 as the WR39, Pickens' redraft value feels appropriate. However, the two players immediately ahead of him are Kadarius Toney and Treylon Burks. Both players flashed significant upside and have arguably a clearer path to a greater target share, but neither player has yet to produce like Pickens.