Jared Goff's 2023 Fantasy Football Outlook: Fade in Redraft Formats, Sprinkle in Best Ball

Quarterback ADP is evolving all the time. In the early days of fantasy football, there was an emphasis on getting elite QBs to start your drafts. Then, late-round QB came into vogue. Now the pendulum is swinging back in the other direction. Jared Goff’s price seems to be inflated thanks to the entire tide rising with QB ADP. Over the last month on Underdog, his ADP is at 128. It’s actually gone down by about half of a round in that time. The question of whether to draft him or not relies heavily on format and your preferred roster construction.

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Analyzing Jared Goff’s ADP

We’ll start with a look at his round and the round before/after for context.

You might not be particularly excited about drafting Goff, but…is there anyone you’re excited about in this part of the draft? Personally, I can count on one hand the skill players I’m excited about in this range. This group of quarterbacks (QB13 - QB18) has increased slightly from last year. This time last year, you could get the QB17 in the 13th round in some drafts.

There’s been some discussion about this shift, in general. It’s important to remember that you’re not drafting these players against their former costs, you’re analyzing the current market to identify strengths and weaknesses. With that being said, in redraft leagues, we might be waiting a bit too long to grab our starter if this is our QB1.

Detroit Lions 2023 Outlook

Waiting on a quarterback can work in a lot of instances but Goff’s ceiling seems relatively capped by a lack of rushing upside and the fragility of the offense. If Amon-Ra St. Brown were to go down, it’s curtains for Goff’s season. Jameson Williams won’t be back until almost Halloween and the next pass-catcher drafted after him doesn’t go until outside of the top 160 picks in drafts.

There’s going to be plenty of volume for the Lions. The philosophy last season actually seemed pretty modern and advanced for Detroit standards. The Lions were eighth in play-action, first in going for it on fourth down, and fourth in total yards per game. With a backfield tandem of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, it’ll be hard for teams to devote the necessary personnel to stop the passing game. They currently have a win total of 9.5, so we’re looking at a competitive team for the 2023 season.

What to do With Jared Goff

In his entire career, he’s only topped 300 fantasy points once. Part of that is due to the fact that he’s only thrown for more than 4,000 yards three times. But, a lot of the reason for his lack of upside is his rushing "ability". He’s only rushed for more than 100 yards in one season. Goff has played exactly 100 games in his career. Only four of those games have resulted in a rushing total higher than 15 yards.

In theory, he should see plenty of volume this year but there’s still the question of touchdown upside. Goff has only thrown for more than 30 touchdowns in one previous season. His career touchdown rate is just 4.4% and with the influx of rushing talent to the roster, it’s easy to see a path for passing touchdowns to come in low once again.

In redraft leagues, you could always drop him and go stream QBs for the rest of the season if an injury or just general inefficiencies change what we think the offense will do. But, you might miss out on a proper breakout candidate with rushing upside if you take Goff over some of the other options just before him.

In best ball tournaments like Underdog, he’s very stackable with St. Brown and you can even pair one of the running backs with him for a triple stack. They also get a Week 17 game against the Cowboys which could be worth targeting for a game stack in tournament settings depending on how the draft falls to you.

Conclusions

• In redraft formats, Jared Goff is a relatively easy fade for me. The volume will be there but his lack of rushing upside makes him a pass for me at cost. If he were to fall into the 13th and I really wanted to punt the position I'd consider him. Goff is currently QB18 in 4for4's rankings.

• In best ball tournaments, you should work him into your portfolio. Especially with the Week 17 Cowboys matchup and easily attainable stacks. His Underdog ADP sits at 128 as QB17.