Tyler Boyd: A Proven Contributor in the Bengals' High-Powered Offense

The Bengals are an exciting team from a bird’s eye view. A young quarterback, a trio of talented wide receivers, and a solid - albeit somewhat troubled - running back. Tyler Boyd is the elder statesman of that wide receiver trio at the advanced age of 28. He was drafted back in 2016 before Joe Burrow had even entered college. Boyd has three seasons of 100+ targets and two seasons of 1,000+ yards under his belt in his career. There’s been a decline in his raw target numbers and total yardage each season since Burrow was drafted, though. The addition of Tee Higgins to the roster immediately pushed Boyd into the team’s WR3.

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According to our multi-site ADP tool, Tyler Boyd has dropped all the way to WR62 in drafts now. Is the price justified given his role or is there an opportunity to buy low on a proven contributor in a high-powered offense?

How Boyd Fits into the Bengals' Offense

I recently wrote about Zay Jones and how the addition of Calvin Ridley could be an issue for Jones’ ceiling. While the uncertainty in Jacksonville gives us pause, there’s no such uncertainty in Cincinnati. We have a clear understanding of the Bengals' offense when all three wide receivers are on the field. The Bengals were second in the NFL only behind the Rams in 3+ WR sets, showing those types of formations on over 85% of their snaps.

Even with Ja'Marr Chase only seeing the field for a dozen games in 2022, the trio of top wideouts were the only receivers to break 20 targets for the season. The target tree is very concentrated and leads to some predictability for us as fantasy football managers. Chase is the obvious alpha in the offense but Boyd didn’t really benefit from Chase’s absence in 2022.

Boyd's target numbers remained the same whether Chase was in the lineup or not. There is the obvious small sample size caveat to throw out here, but the fact that his targets don’t go up with Chase off the field is an important part of conceptualizing what to do with Boyd this year. The following are Higgins’ splits with and without Chase:

In Chase's absence, Higgins has seen a significant increase in his usage across the board. We know, based on their overall usage, that Higgins is above Boyd in the pecking order. But this also shows that even with Chase out, Boyd stays firmly cemented in his role.

Analyzing Boyd’s Usage

Considering Tyler Boyd's consistent performance and target share over his career, the newly added wide receivers, Charlie Jones and Andrei Iosivas, who were drafted in the fourth and sixth rounds respectively, should not threaten his production. Historically, only 11.4% of wide receivers drafted in these rounds since 2000 have managed to score eight PPR points per game in their rookie season, indicating that it's unlikely these new additions will overshadow Boyd.

In the past two seasons, Boyd has been a key component of the Bengals' potent wide receiver trio, earning five or more targets in over 70% of his games. Despite a slight dip in his 80+ yard games from four in 2021 to two in 2022, both of his 80+ yard games in 2022 saw him surpass 100 yards and score a touchdown. Furthermore, he had four or more receptions in half of his games last season.

Boyd's efficiency is also noteworthy. Among the 54 wide receivers who averaged 50 snaps per game last season, he ranked 51st in expected fantasy points per game but outperformed expectations by ranking 39th in actual fantasy points per game. While these rankings may not seem impressive at first glance, considering his draft position in fantasy leagues, Boyd's talent level offers excellent value.

A Look at Where Boyd is Being Drafted

On Underdog, Boyd is being drafted in the ninth round. We know that Underdog’s wide receiver ADPs are inflated quite a bit. According to the multi-site ADP tool, he is taken as WR62, which places him as late as the 13th round in some drafts.

I ran a cluster analysis of the wide receivers that have gone in this ADP range, looking at their points scored and their FFPC Win Rates. This dataset covers wide receivers drafted from Picks 120–150 from 2017–2022.

Tyler Boyd’s 2022 season falls in the intermediate range of performances here. As a result of his point output and win rate, he occupies the upper end of that middle group. Despite being the clear third option, Boyd manages to maintain his fantasy value. You’re not running out to draft him in the early rounds or thinking he has WR1 upside. But, there’s a volume floor there that other wide receivers in his range don’t necessarily have. Here are the wide receivers you'll likely have to choose from when deciding whether or not to draft Tyler Boyd:

All things being equal, I’d like to bet on the best combination of efficient offense and predictable volume in this range, and Tyler Boyd checks both of those boxes. The potential for a burst of touchdowns is there when you play for the Bengals, as well. In the red zone last season, Cincinnati was:

• 2nd in Passing Yards Per Game
• 4th in Pass Rate Over Expected
• 5th in Pass%

In other words, they don’t change their philosophy to a “grind it out” style when they get close to scoring.

Outside of Skyy Moore, the other receivers that you’re considering here aren’t a part of an offense that is as prolific or as pass-happy in the red zone as the Bengals are. Our very own Brandon Niles recently wrote an excellent piece about the potential headache Skyy Moore could bring to your lineup decisions each week.

Conclusions

• Even in Ja'Marr Chase’s absence last year, Tyler Boyd's target numbers remained consistent. He has a defined role that has been valuable throughout the years.
• His ADP is lower this year despite no signs that his role has been diminished at all.
• Although Tyler Boyd's ADP may not have WR1 upside, his consistent performance and favorable volume make him a strong option compared to other wide receivers in his range, especially with the Bengals' efficient and pass-heavy red zone offense.
• If you're playing in a redraft league or a best ball format, Boyd is a strong pick in this section of drafts.