Fantasy Football: ADP Risers & Fallers (July 3rd-17th)

This is still a downtime in the NFL so all ADP movement is likely courtesy of rumors and coach speak from the last organized practices. You’d think draft values would not have changed much over the last few weeks, but conversely, there has been some significant movement.

Let’s take a look at the biggest risers and fallers at each position over the last 14 days in Underdog drafts, by comparing players’ ADP from July 3rd to July 17th I’ll go position by position to tease out any relevant players’ spikes or slides.

*All ADP is courtesy of 4for4’s Underdog ADP tool.

Quarterbacks

QB Risers

Kyler Murray, Cardinals (ADP: 153, +12.2)

The Arizona QB is still on the road back to full health after ACL surgery but things are starting to look up for Kyler Murray. His return date is still to be determined, but the 25-year-old’s rehab and future plans are highlighted in a YouTube series entitled Flight Plan: Load1ing that aired July 13th.

👀👀👀#CardsFlightPlan: '𝐋𝐨𝐚𝐝𝟏𝐧𝐠...' airs TONIGHT at 7 on YouTube pic.twitter.com/CMJ9BmqmAR

— Arizona Cardinals (@AZCardinals) July 13, 2023

The question marks surrounding Murray’s return - particularly if the team starts out winless without him - make him a tough pick in redraft leagues, but as a QB2 in best ball or Superflex there’s value in the selection. He’s also a great bench stash as a backup if you have the room to roster an extra signal caller.

Brock Purdy, 49ers (ADP: 170.2, +4.1)

This is now Brock Purdy’s fourth time in a row as one of the top QB risers, and he’s jumped the most in QB ADP over the last eight weeks. The 49ers signal-caller has moved up 28.7 draft spots from a mid-17th-round selection to his current 15th-round spot since May 22nd.

It appears Purdy will be the first in line for the 49ers QB job and drafters are feeling more confident in the pick as we move closer to the season. Both Trey Lance and Sam Darnold are also being selected in Underdog drafts as insurance in the final round.

Ryan Tannehill, Titans (ADP: 211, +3.1)

A QB at the end of his career gets a lift in ADP when his team signs the alpha WR they’ve been missing since trading away A.J. Brown before the 2022 season. DeAndre Hopkins agreed to a deal with Tennessee on July 17th which provides a two-pronged bump in Tanny's draft stock. First Hopkins is a step up from any pass-catcher on their roster and secondly, it assures fantasy managers that they are actually playing to win meaning Tannehill should be the starter for a decent amount of games in 2023.

Since the Hopkins news broke a day before this article is posted, Tanny moved just three draft spots up as Underdog’s QB31, but expect him to rise into fantasy QB2 territory in the coming weeks.

QB Fallers

Jordan Love, Packers (ADP: 160.8, -8)

I couldn't find a tangible reason for Jordan Love’s recent slide in ADP of over half of a round, but he has been winning over his teammates this offseason. We haven’t seen enough from Love to assign true fantasy value as his career line of 50-606-3 is such a small sample, but he learned from one of the best in Aaron Rodgers over the last two years and has a talented receiving corps to throw to in 2023.

Love is 4for4’s QB20 right now and is being selected as the QB22 on both Underdog and in redraft leagues according to our multi-site ADP tool, so there is still some value in the pick as a fantasy QB2.

Running Backs

RB Risers

Alvin Kamara, Saints (ADP: 94.6, +6.6)

On July 11th, Alvin Kamara agreed to plead no contest to his breach of the peace charges in a Las Vegas nightclub incident. This will presumably be good news for fantasy managers as it takes this from a felony to a misdemeanor, which has historically been a line in the sand for the NFL when it comes to repercussions.

Kamar’s ADP will likely continue to slowly climb while rookie Kendre Miller and Jamaal Williams could experience a slight slide in their draft stock in the coming weeks.

Kenneth Gainwell, Eagles (ADP: 166.4, +5.4)

This is the second fortnight in a row with Kenneth Gainwell rising up in ADP, as the Philly RB has jumped 16.7 spots since mid-June. The 24-year-old experienced a mini breakout in the 2022 postseason, posting 181 playoff rushing yards on 33 carries which sat third behind just Christian McCaffrey and Isiah Pacheco, and his yards per carry also jumped to 5.5 from 4.5.

His output is an excellent sign of what could be but there are two very competent backs in the way in D’Andre Swift and Rashaad Penny. Both RBs have had trouble staying on the field so Gainwell is still a nice choice to outproduce his current 14th-round ADP if anything were to happen to either rusher. The Eagles also have the top-ranked offensive line in the league which sure helps Gainwell’s value.

Javonte Williams, Broncos (ADP: 90.3, +4.3)

ESPN’s Jeff Legwold reported that “the plan” is for Javonte Williams to be cleared for the start of training camp when veterans return on July 25th. Williams is recovering from a torn ACL suffered in Week 4 last season and will likely be eased back into practices once the session begins.

It’s still early when it comes to Williams and there’s a chance he lands on the PUP list to start the season meaning four games missed, but as an eighth-rounder, there’s still some value if the third-year RB bounces back from that knee injury.

Other RB Risers: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Chiefs (ADP: 204.5, +4.9), Rashaad Penny, Eagles (ADP: 110.5, +4.9), Cam Akers, Rams (ADP: 65.4, +4.2), Joe Mixon, Bengals (ADP: 46.1, +3.9) David Montgomery, Lions (ADP: 78.7, 3.7)

RB Fallers

Pierre Strong Jr., Patriots (ADP: 207.8, -8.5)

This nine-spot skid is likely due to an overreaction to Pierre Strong Jr.’s listing as the RB3 on the Patriots' depth chart. A beat writer for Patriots.com talked about his possible breakout in the James White role in 2023 as a complement to Rhamondre Stevenson, which would make the sophomore an excellent late-round PPR stash.

Strong was drafted by New England last season in the fourth round to prepare for the departure of Damien Harris and he should be given opportunity to prove his worth in 2023. In the past 14 days, he has slipped to the final round in Underdog drafts and isn’t leaving Yahoo boards until Round 19 in early redraft formats.

Dalvin Cook, FA (ADP: 89.9, -5.2)

The saying patience is a virtue is applicable here as drafters are likely tired of waiting for Dalvin Cook to sign with an NFL team. He’ll eventually come to terms somewhere and screw up an RB room for us fantasy managers, but for now, it’s still a waiting game. As a result, Cook’s draft stock has taken a near half-of-a-round hit down to the mid-eighth.

Isiah Pacheco, Chiefs (ADP: 86.6, -4.8)

Perhaps drafters are tired of autocorrect changing the spelling of Isiah Pacheco’s first name so they stopped drafting him at ADP. Clearly, the different spelling of his name has nothing to do with clicking a button, but I just wanted to vent about it.

The KC RB room is never the easiest to figure out and I did notice that Clyde Edwards-Helaire is experiencing a small ADP surge. Pacheco underwent surgery for a torn labrum and a broken bone in his hand this offseason and could miss some of training camp, but he should be good to go as the team’s presumed starter. He’s 4for4’s RB28 and is leaving draft boards as the RB27 in both best ball and redraft formats.

Other RB Fallers: Jerome Ford, Browns (ADP: 165, -4.7), Chuba Hubbard, Panthers (ADP: 184.2, -3), Dameon Pierce, Texans (ADP: 69.9, -2.3)

Wide Receivers

WR Risers

Tim Patrick, Broncos (ADP: 170.4, +17.4)

Wideouts in general are experiencing their moment in Underdog drafts as they are being shifted up the boards in recent weeks. Tim Patrick is leading the charge, as his ADP has spiked 35 spots over the last month. Patrick is healthy and has looked great this offseason, even dubbed “the best football player” in the Broncos locker room by sources via NFL Network’s James Palmer.

A mid-16th-round selection just weeks ago, Patrick is now being drafted in the early 15th as WR74 on Underdog. Redraft managers are taking the Denver receiver as WR53, though, so he's gaining momentum across the fantasy football space. Patrick will compete with rookie Marvin Mims for the WR3 spot for the Broncos but if he continues to turn heads in camp, he could solidify a larger role before the season begins.

DeVante Parker, Patriots (ADP: 192.5, +13)

Parker inked a three-year extension worth up to $33 million on June 28th, with $14 million of it guaranteed. Perhaps that’s what has moved the needle for drafters, as the NE WR has risen 22.8 spots in the last month.

The Mac Jones-will-be-way-better-with-Bill-O’Brien-as-OC hype has reached a decent fever pitch as well, and fantasy managers appear to be buying in. I’m more of a JuJu-Smith Schuster gal if I’m drafting a New England WR, but Parker is still fairly priced in the 17th round if you believe in him.

Nico Collins, Texans (ADP: 119.7, +12.2)

In his July 6th column, ESPN’s DJ Bien-Aime reported Collins as rookie C.J. Stroud’s “favorite target” so far in offseason practices. While it’s still early and actual training camps have yet to start, drafters are warming up to this new-look Houston offense, raising the ADP for the 24-year-old a full round.

With a clear path to volume in an offense devoid of superstars, Collins has a clear path to overdeliver his current WR56 ADP.

Other WR Risers: Diontae Johnson, Steelers (ADP: 55.5, -7), Skyy Moore, Chiefs (ADP: 106.2, -7.3), Rashid Shaheed, Saints (ADP: 161.5, -4.8)

WR Fallers

Tyquan Thornton, Patriots (ADP: 174.8, -10.8) & JuJu Smith-Schuster, Patriots (ADP: 117.2, -7.5)

I lumped these guys together because both are likely a result of Parker’s extension and neither drop really makes much sense, unless drafters were nervous DeAndre Hopkins would sign with New England. The Patriots pass catchers including their TE duo are all inexpensive and each one is a gamble in their own way. Our 4for4 rankings are as follows: Smith-Schuster WR42, DeVante Parker WR65, Kendrick Bourne WR87, and Tyquan Thornton WR94.

Jalin Hyatt, Giants (ADP: 197, -6.5)

The freefall in draft stock keeps rolling for rookie Jalin Hyatt, as he’s slid down 57.4 spots in ADP over the last eight weeks. He was working with the third team in the Giants' last minicamp and it’s looking like a big uphill climb for volume for Hyatt in the crowded New York pass-catching corps.

The former Tennessee Volunteer does boast explosiveness with big-play potential so if the rookie continues to fall which is likely, he’s worth a stab for the possible spike week or two. Hyatt is 4for4’s WR142 in half-PPR scoring and is leaving Underdog boards as the WR83.

Other WR Fallers: Michael Pittman Jr., Colts (ADP: 67.6, -5.1), Jayden Reed, Packers (ADP: 169.4, -4.9), Jakobi Meyers, Raiders (ADP: 126, -4.3)

Tight Ends

TE Risers

Gerald Everett, Chargers (ADP: 150.3, +5.1)

Nothing happened in particular over the last 14 days to cause drafters to click earlier for Gerald Everett, but he is in a nice spot in the Chargers offense in 2023. He’s never the sexiest choice at TE, but where he is being drafted as the TE17 on Underdog, Everett has the potential to outproduce in this new Kellen Moore-run offense.

The 29-year-old is pricier in redraft leagues thus far though, as he’s being selected as the TE10 according to 4for4’s multi-site ADP tool. We have him ranked as the TE15 in half-PPR scoring which seems more fitting for his 2023 outlook.

Taysom Hill, Saints (ADP: 157.5, +4.1)

Another season, another year of people realizing that Taysom Hill is a late-round cheat code. Not surprisingly, Hill “worked out everywhere” in the Saints minicamp, and when asked about his role on June 15th, the 32-year-old said the hope and expectations are that his work will expand as a pass catcher in 2023.

The upside for Hill to contribute in multiple areas of the field is so juicy for fantasy purposes and despite the uptick in ADP, he’s still a smash in the 14th round as part of a late-round TE committee build, or as your TE2 if you paid up for an elite player at the position.

Other TE Risers: Greg Dulcich, Broncos (ADP: 130.9, +3.2), Tyler Higbee, Rams (ADP: 144.1, +3.0), Chigoziem Okonkwo, Titans (ADP: 127.2, +2.4),

TE Fallers

Luke Musgrave, Packers (ADP: 205.3, -5.4)

According to reports from OTAs Luke Musgrave is on track to be the starting TE for Green Bay, so despite his rookie status, he is draftable in best ball formats as part of a late-TE committee build. Musgrave is not recommended for redraft leagues in 2023, but he’s even more appealing now as a 17th-rounder on Underdog, so bring on the slide.

Other TE Fallers: Dalton Kincaid, Bills (ADP: 133.6, -4.8), Irv Smith Jr., Bengals (ADP: 155.8, -3.3)