Fantasy Football: The Chigoziem Okonkwo Hype Train has Broken Down

Trying to identify breakout tight ends is one of the most elusive tasks in all of fantasy football. There is one of them almost every year, but figuring out who it is before the season has proven to be a tall task. This year, the main breakout tight end candidate is Chigoziem Okonkwo of the Tennessee Titans, who is currently being drafted as the TE12 according to Yahoo ADP. Here’s a look at if Okonkwo can live up to the hype in fantasy this year.

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Rookie Year in Review

After being selected in the fourth round of the 2022 NFL draft, Okonkwo’s rookie season numbers weren’t eye-popping on paper. He caught 32 passes for 450 yards and three touchdowns en route to an overall TE23 finish in fantasy. Okonkwo was significantly more involved in the Titans offense down the stretch last year and was the TE9 from week 11 on. Standing at 6’2, 243 pounds but also running a 4.38 40-yard dash, Okonkwo is a unicorn at the tight end position and has the physical tools to succeed all across the formation.

While Okonkwo’s rookie year counting stats seem pedestrian. on a per-snap basis, his advanced numbers rivaled some of the best tight ends in the NFL. Okonkwo ranked first among tight ends in yards after catch per reception, first in yards per route run, second in yards per target, and third in PFF receiving grade in 2022. These stats do come from a rather low sample size, but it’s promising to see that Okonkwo was excellent when he got the opportunity.

Okonkwo in the Titans’ Offense

Okonkwo’s fantasy value took a big hit after the Titans signed five-time pro bowler DeAndre Hopkins on July 16th. This means that Okonkwo likely slots in as the third option in the Titans' passing game behind Hopkins and second-year receiver Treylon Burks. The Titans will also remain a run-first offense with Derrick Henry in the backfield—since Mike Vrabel became the head coach in 2018, the Titans have ranked in the bottom-7 in neutral down pass frequency every single season, including two years at dead last. Put all of this together, and it’s difficult to envision a scenario where Okonkwo sees a consistent level of volume to succeed in fantasy.

The Titans also have a somewhat uncertain quarterback situation. Veteran Ryan Tannehill projects to be the starter and is a solid player, but if the Titans season goes sideways, he could be replaced by rookie second-round pick Will Levis. This would throw yet another wrench in the system for Okonkwo, as he might have to deal with instability on top of a lack of volume—rookie quarterbacks are rarely able to support even one top fantasy receiver, let alone three.

Assessing Okonkwo’s Floor and Ceiling

Despite Okonkwo’s athletic prowess and promising production last season, it is very hard to trust him in fantasy this year after the Hopkins signing. His floor just seems too low—the Titans averaged the third-fewest passing attempts per game last season, meaning there could be weeks where Okonkwo hardly even sees the ball. He is talented enough with the ball in his hands where he will be fantasy-relevant, especially considering the wasteland that the tight end position is, but I view him as more of a touchdown-dependent streaming option than as a concrete starter.

Okonkwo does still have a higher ceiling than most tight ends because of his explosiveness and breakout potential, but he likely won’t get the opportunity to tap into that upside unless one of Hopkins or Burks gets injured or has a disaster of a season. This is rather unfortunate—before Hopkins was added, Okonkwo had a path to being the #2 in the offense and seeing enough volume to be a starter in the tight end landscape. Now, I would wait until Okonkwo’s ADP drops before even considering him in drafts, but to be honest, you are probably better off taking safer, less exciting options late like Dalton Schultz or Tyler Higbee to avoid the headache of streaming tight ends.

The Bottom Line

• Okonkwo is a talented player who quietly had a very strong rookie season when he was on the field.
• After the signing of DeAndre Hopkins, Okonkwo faces an uphill battle to receive targets in the run-first Titans offense, as he also will have to compete with Treylon Burks.
• Okonkwo’s floor is rather low in fantasy football—there might be games where he is scarcely used in the Titans' offense. He projects as a touchdown-dependent streaming option who will be at the top of the waiver wire each week, but not a consistent starter.
• Okonkwo doesn’t offer much value anymore at his current ADP of TE12, as the players going around him are guaranteed a higher level of volume. He is nothing more than a flier in drafts now and I wouldn’t take him before the last two rounds.