Fantasy Football: Terry McLaurin's Role & Impact in 2023

Terry McLaurin was selected in the third round (76th overall) of the 2019 NFL Draft. His career thus far has been nothing short of impressive, with his speed, agility, and route-running ability making him a formidable presence on the field. Despite the revolving door of quarterbacks he’s been saddled with in Washington, McLaurin has managed to shine, proving he can produce regardless of who's under center. As we head into the 2023 season, the question on everyone's mind is, can "Scary Terry" continue to scare off defenders and rack up fantasy points?

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Terry McLaurin Career in Review

Terry McLaurin's career stats are a testament to his skill and reliability. McLaurin has been on the receiving end of 477 targets, converting them into 299 receptions. With an average of 14.3 yards per reception, these receptions have translated into 4,281 receiving yards. Moreover, he's found the end zone 21 times.

In his inaugural season, McLaurin quickly made a name for himself. Over 14 games, he secured 58 receptions from 93 targets, racking up 919 yards in the process. His average yards per reception stood at an impressive 15.8, and he crossed the goal line seven times. The following year, McLaurin's performance continued to impress. He played in 15 games, catching 87-of-134 targets. His efforts yielded 1,118 yards, with an average of 12.9 yards per reception, and he scored four touchdowns. In 2021, McLaurin demonstrated his durability by playing in all 17 games. He caught 77-of-130 targets, amassing 1,053 yards and scoring five touchdowns. His average yards per reception was 13.7.

McLaurin’s 2022 Season

The 2022 season saw McLaurin maintain his high level of performance. He played in all 17 games, catching 77-of-120 targets. His 1,191 receiving yards came at an average of 15.5 yards per reception, and he scored five touchdowns. McLaurin proved his durability, as well, seeing the field for nearly 90% of the Commanders’ snaps.

He was the fantasy WR14 in PPR scoring formats but most of that was simply because he played in all 17 games. McLaurin finished as the WR24 in points per game (PPG). From a volume perspective, he lagged behind most of the elite wide receivers and was outside the top 20 in Targets Per Route Run (TPRR), as well.

He’s certainly above average, but he's in a cluster of receivers who are all pretty interchangeable. One area where McLaurin is clearly above average is his play after the catch.

There aren’t many receivers who have his combination of yards after the catch (YAC) and average depth of target (aDOT). He’s in the 90th percentile in that relationship, meaning there are only about 10% of receivers as good or better than him at earning deep targets and still gaining yards after the catch.

McLaurin's consistent performance and reliable scoring have solidified his position as a key asset for the Washington Commanders, but the upside in fantasy football doesn’t seem to be there without a significant expansion in target share.

Looking Ahead to 2023

McLaurin has been seen getting some work in with quarterback Sam Howell ahead of training camp. This collaboration could potentially strengthen the connection between the two. McLaurin said he feels a “nuanced connection” with Howell. That’s a great sign for the Commanders in real-life football, but if McLaurin doesn’t crack a 25% target share, it might not matter as much in fantasy.

The Commanders ran the fourth-most plays in the NFL a season ago. There’s not much room to grow in play volume, so the only way up is to take a stranglehold of the target share. While his target share has grown a bit each year of his career, it’s hard to envision a leap of that magnitude.

McLaurin has been right in this zone for his whole career so far. He’s a valuable player, but it would be an uphill climb for him to be able to carve out the target share necessary to really outperform his ADP by that many spots.

Fantasy Football Draft Strategy

When you look at the wide receivers going around him, it’s tough to click on McLaurin’s name consistently. Our multi-site ADP tool has him at WR24.

There are plenty of pass-catchers going after him who have paths to top-15 fantasy receiver finishes. McLaurin did manage to finish in the top 15 last year in total points, but on a per-game basis, his numbers lag behind that group. If you’re in a league or two with friends and family, let someone else select him. If you’re drafting many teams in a best ball tournament, then some exposure to him makes sense in stacks with Howell, but he’s not someone to reach for or invest very heavily in.

Bottom Line

• Terry McLaurin has proven to be a reliable receiver for the Washington Commanders, with 299 receptions from 477 targets and 21 touchdowns in his career so far.
• Despite a revolving door of quarterbacks, McLaurin has consistently performed well, with his 2022 season seeing him play in all 17 games, catching 77-of-120 targets, and scoring five touchdowns.
• McLaurin's ability to gain yards after the catch sets him apart, placing him in the 90th percentile for receivers in terms of YAC and aDOT. However, his fantasy football potential may be limited without a significant increase in target share.
• Looking ahead to 2023, McLaurin has been working with Sam Howell in training camp, which could strengthen their connection. However, for a significant impact in fantasy football, McLaurin would need to secure a 25% target share, a challenging feat considering the usage he’s seen thus far in his career.