Week 2 Sunday Night Single-Game NFL DFS: Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays

Sep 16, 2023

Sunday Night Single-Game DFS: Dolphins at Patriots

Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the showdown breakdown for Week 2 Sunday Night Football, a key NFC East matchup between the Dolphins and Patriots. The Dolphins come into Foxborough riding the high of a thrilling fourth-quarter comeback win in which their quarterback and star wideout look absolutely unguardable en route to the most yards and points scored in Week 1. The Patriots showed marked improvement offensively compared to 2022, but ultimately lost to the reigning NFC champion Eagles in Week 1, and are looking to avoid falling to 0-2 in one of the league’s most competitive divisions.

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Game Environment

^{This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20% and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. We’ll include last year’s statistics through Week 4 of the regular season. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.}

Dolphins (-2.5, 24.5) @ Patriots (+2.5, 22); Over/Under 46.5

The Dolphins are undoubtedly a pass-oriented team. However, it might come as a surprise to some—especially after last week’s offensive explosion against the Chargers—that this team also prefers to play uptempo. That’s not always the case. Instead, the Dolphins choose to use tempo and no-huddle selectively, while also taking moments to take their foot off the gas, presumably letting their speedsters get a little bit of extra rest before the next deep ball is inevitably launched their way. Expect the pass rate numbers to continue to climb towards the top of the league.

The Patriots, somewhat shockingly, find themselves in the top-right, ‘pass-oriented and uptempo’, quadrant of the chart above. That’s probably not the identity you think of when considering the Patriots’ offensive game plan. However, even without a true superstar, the Patriots front office has surrounded quarterback Mac Jones with a slew of capable skill players who, when used cohesively, can have massive days in the receiving game.

All in all, the chart above speaks to a strong possibility that this game out-performing its middling game total. With a moderate to above-average pass, and plenty of passing projected, the shootout potential of this contest is simply higher than the total suggests.