Week 9 NFL Pick'em & Survivor Pool Picks: What Browns Can Do For You is Win

Nov 01, 2023

Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

This week’s slate lacks some of the larger spreads, with four teams on a bye and some of the normally big favorites playing each other. As of Wednesday, only two teams are favored by more than a touchdown with four boasting spreads over a field goal.

With the help of PoolGenius' customizable tools and data, I’ll select matchups with some value so that you can get to the top of those leaderboards in pick'em contests and survive another week in knockout pools.

About Pool Genius

PoolGenius is the only site dedicated to helping you win more sports pools. Our tools harness the power of algorithms to analyze the format and rules of the specific pools you enter, project the behavior of your opponents, and identify the picks that give you the best chance to win. Use them yourself at the links below:

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Week 8 Recap

My picks went a perfect 5-0 last week with the Ravens, Chargers, Dolphins, Jets, and even my bonus Lions pick all coming out victorious in their respective contests. That brings my total so far to 12-5 since starting this column in Week 5.

Pick'em Pool Breakdown

Before I get into the picks, note I’m not suggesting you should make all of the picks listed below. The best Week 9 picks for your NFL pool depend on strategy factors such as your pool’s size, rules, and prize structure, plus situational factors like your current place in the standings and the number of weeks remaining.

However, these picks do provide some of the best opportunities to differentiate your Week 9 picks from your pool opponents by taking on only a modest amount of risk, or no additional risk at all.

Favorite Favorites

Cleveland Browns vs. Cardinals

Here we have a havoc-wreaking defense against an offense with most likely Clayton Tune under center. The Browns are favored by 7.5 points in this one which is tied for the highest spread in Week 9, with 75% win odds via PoolGenius. The public is rolling with Cleveland 98% of the time so you will succeed or fail with most of your poolmates.

New Orleans Saints vs. Bears

The other spread larger than a touchdown (7.5), the Saints should dominate on both sides of the ball, with Alvin Kamara playing lights out and their defense able to shut down a Tyson Bagent-led attack. Both Vegas and PoolGenius currently have New Orleans’ win odds at 77%, and with the public taking the Saints 96% of the time, you’ll win or lose the pick with the majority of your pool.

* Bonus Favorite: Baltimore Ravens vs. Seahawks

Value Favorite

Atlanta Falcons vs. Vikings

This is a battle of backup QBs as Minnesota rookie Jaren Hall is on the road against Taylor Heinicke in Atlanta. The Vikings' run defense is fairly porous so the Falcons should be able to deploy Bijan Robinson to take care of business. The home team is favored by five points, but only 77% of the public is backing the Falcons this week, creating value in the selection.

Upset Gamble

Dallas Cowboys @ Eagles

This should be a fun NFC East showdown with both QBs red-hot coming into Week 9. Their run games should be contained and it will come down to Micah Parsons getting to Jalen Hurts. The Cowboys are road underdogs by a field goal with just 40% Vegas odds to win. Public pickers are taking Dallas just 19% of the time so if this hits, you’ll be at an advantage.

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Survivor Picks for Week 9

Win Odds: Top 5 Week 9 Picks

Stating the obvious here, but higher is better when it comes to winning odds. Everything else being equal, you want to pick the team with the best likelihood of making it through.

Here are the five safest teams this week, according to the PoolGenius Data Grid model (chances to win in parentheses):

Browns vs. Cardinals (77%, 7.5-point favorites)
Saints vs. Bears (76%, 7.5-point favorites)
Ravens vs. Seahawks (70%, 5.5-point favorites)
Falcons vs. Vikings (66%, 5-point favorites)
Patriots vs. Commanders (62%, 3.5-point favorites)

Pick Popularity

Diversifying your survivor picks from the crowd is an advantageous strategy, as the pool winnings can increase significantly if your pick hits and another popular pick loses.

Here are the five most popular survivor picks for Week 9 (referencing Data Grid mentioned earlier):