Week 9 Europe Single-Game NFL DFS: Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays

Nov 04, 2023

Sunday Morning Game Single-Game DFS: Dolphins vs. Chiefs

Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the single-game breakdown for a historic Week 9 clash live from Frankfurt, Germany. We're looking at a potential AFC Championship preview as the Miami Dolphins take on the Kansas City Chiefs in the final European game of the season. Both teams are entering the game with impressive 6-2 records, and are playing for the conference lead as we begin the season’s second half. The Chiefs are looking to forget their worst performance of the season in Denver and will need to score a lot more than 9 points (the lowest output of Mahomes’ career) to have a shot at winning this week. This game is also particularly special for the Dolphins as it marks the first time this season that Miami's star cornerbacks, Jalen Ramsey, and Xavien Howard, will take the field together, fortifying a defense that has arguably been the team’s only weakness thus far. With no significant injuries to report, we're set for a showdown that could easily be the most memorable game of the 2023 regular season.

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Game Environment

^{This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20% and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. We’ll include last year’s statistics through Week 4 of the regular season. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.}

Dolphins (+2, 24.25) vs. Chiefs (-2, 26.25); Over/Under 50.5 (Neutal Location, London)

In this neutral environment, the betting odds favor the reigning champion Chiefs by a slim 2-point margin, which indicates the high competitiveness we expect to unfold. The Chiefs have an implied team total of 26.25 points, while the Dolphins trail just behind at 24.25, meaning the over/under’s sitting at a very solid 50.5. Needless to say, the stage is set for an offensive exhibition, as Vegas predicts big things from both offenses.

Last week, Patrick Mahomes played like he was still feeling the effects of the late-week illness that nearly knocked him out of the lineup, but we should expect a return to form in Week 9. The Chiefs' offense is typically characterized by an aggressive air attack that's well above average in pass rate and pace of play during neutral game scripts. Despite being 24th in pace, their true nature is revealed in their neutral play rates, highlighting an offense that's trying to score on nearly every play. Mahome averages 3.9 passes of 20-plus air yards and the highest red zone pass attempts per game in the NFL.

The Dolphins, while more balanced, share a similar appetite for the "home run" play. Under Tua Tagovailoa's stewardship, they exhibit a blistering pace in neutral game scripts, with an offense that's built on up-tempo play and blazing speed at the skill positions. Tua matches Mahomes exactly in deep attempts per game, underscoring a fearless and innovative offensive strategy that also includes the third-highest pass rate in the red zone.

Quarterback Analysis

^{While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. the average NFL team. Completion % over Expected (CPOE)represents the accuracy and efficiency of a QB’s passes compared to league expectations.}

Even after the Week 8 debacle in Denver, we can count Patrick Mahomes and Tua Tagovailoa among the most efficient quarterbacks in the NFL. Tagovailoa is playing at an MVP level this season. He leads the NFL in a plethora of categories: he's first in true Drive success rate, tops in EPA per game, and it’s resulted in the most passing yards and touchdowns at the position. His true passer rating, which adjusts for factors like pass difficulty and support from the receiving corps, is once again, best in the NFL. Adjusted yards per attempt? Same thing, Tagovailoa also boasts the best.

While rushing isn't a focal point, evidenced by his 30th-most attempts per game at his position, the aerial prowess more than compensates, lifting him to the 12th most expected fantasy points per game and the sixth-best fantasy points per game. He faces a Chiefs defense that's evolved into a formidable unit against the pass in 2023, ranking 6th in yards allowed per pass attempt and fourth in pass defense DVOA. They're also stingy when it comes to fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, holding the second-toughest spot in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to the position this season.

On the other side, Mahomes has had moments of rare human-ness in 2023 but still boasts all-league numbers in several key categories. It’s safe to call Week 8 an anomaly, and we should also remember that Mahomes' “worse” metrics this season are only in comparison to the astronomical standards he's set for himself in the past. He's operating with a completion percentage at league average versus expectations but ranks among the top three quarterbacks in per-game efficiency via true drive success rate and top five in EPA per game. The poor accuracy metrics can be almost entirely explained by 17 dropped passes, the most for any starting quarterback this season. He ranks top three in catchable pass rate. The Dolphins pass defense may only rank middle of the pack in DVOA and 25th in aFPA to quarterbacks, but that's without considering the impact of Jalen Ramsey and Xavien Howard, two cornerbacks whose presence can significantly alter the dynamics of Miami's defensive scheme. This will be a serious test of Miami's “full strength” defense. Their performance this weekend could vindicate past metrics, or render them entirely obsolete.