Week 10 Thursday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS: Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays

Nov 09, 2023

Thursday Night Single-Game DFS: Panthers at Bears

Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the showdown breakdown for Week 10 Thursday Night Football, where the struggling Panthers visit the equally-struggling Bears in a battle for the second-worst record in the league. It’s an intriguing setup for DFS enthusiasts, as it's an opportunity to exploit the less-obvious value that emerges from what looks, on paper, to be a pretty ugly matchup. Let’s dig into the strategy for tonight all while realizing that we’re navigating a game environment that could be as unpredictable as it is low-scoring.

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Game Environment

^{This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20% and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. We’ll include last year’s statistics through Week 4 of the regular season. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.\}

Panthers (+3, 127.75) @ Bears (-3, 20.75); Over/Under 38.5

The Chicago Bears come into this matchup as slight favorites, with Vegas giving them a 3-point edge and an implied total of 20.75 points. That puts the Panthers as the underdogs with an implied total of 17.75 points and and the game's over/under at an extremely low 38.5, reflecting the consistent offensive struggles both teams have endured this season. But get ready NFL fans! This contest is just one of six games this weekend with an over/under below the 40-point threshold.

Chicago’s run game has been their bread and butter, as they focus on the ground attack in neutral game scripts, ranking 28th in pass plays per game, though they tend to match the league average in terms of pace. Rookie Tyson Bagent, thrust once again into the starting role due to Justin Fields' absence, has not thrown deep often, averaging a modest 1.8 passes of 20+ air yards and 3.8 red zone attempts per game. However, against a Panthers defense that could contend for the title of the league's worst, there’s a potential for Bagent to reach a ceiling higher than we’ve seen thus far, particularly if he continues rushing at the rate he has been.

The Panthers are exactly average in terms of pace and passing in neutral game scripts. Their third-highest rank in pass plays per game is mostly a byproduct of regularly playing from behind rather than any offensive aggressiveness. Their game script score, which takes the team’s average score differential during all plays, is fourth-worst in the league. Quarterback Bryce Young's lack of deep passes and red zone attempts, both outside the top 20, further dampens expectations for any type of aerial showcase. However, the Bears' own defensive shortcomings could theoretically provide some respite for an otherwise anemic Panthers offense.

Quarterback Analysis

^{While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. the average NFL team. Completion % over Expected (CPOE)represents the accuracy and efficiency of a QB’s passes compared to league expectations.}

Tyson Bagent’s third start comes off the back of a somewhat promising fantasy performance last weekend, as he scored among the top-10 quarterbacks in Week 9. His average of 7.3 yards per attempt on 30 passes, complemented by a dual-threat capability that saw him rush for 70 yards, sketched a profile of a quarterback who shouldn’t be underestimated even if assuming this is an ugly game environment. Bagent's rushing game (6.4 rushing FPts per game) accounts for nearly half of his fantasy points at this point. His passing efficiency, however, lingers below the desired mark with ranks outside the top 30 across various per-pass, per-drive, and per-game metrics.

Panthers' rookie Bryce Young leads a Panthers' offense that ranks 27th in total passing yards. Young's performance metrics are a major cause for concern, with his completion percentage versus expectation and true drive success rate falling outside the top 40. His expected points added (EPA) per game also fails to impress, ranking 35th, and he adds only 16 rushing yards per game. His lack of scoring on the ground and scarcity of red zone opportunities put a damper on his DFS appeal. Nevertheless, Young's effectiveness with play action, where he ranks eighth in completion percentage, hints at untapped potential, albeit within an offense that rarely employs it, ranking 10th lowest in play-action passes this season. Young's is a high-risk, high-reward proposition in this low-scoring game environment.