SharpClarke's Best Week 10 NFL Bet: GB @ PIT

Nov 10, 2023

Dan Powers- USA TODAY NETWORK/ Wisconsin

In Week 10, I am revisiting a simple angle that I have acted on several times and have made a tidy profit doing so: this Packers team is not very good. Since Week 5, I have bet against the Packers in three of their four games and won each of those bets. The one week I skipped was last week when they went up against backup quarterback Brett Rypien, who was so bad that he got cut just days later. As Shania Twain says, that don't impress me much. Now, the market has that new information, of course, so it does not mean that they continue to be undervalued. But let's dive into the matchup and why I believe there is still value fading the Packers this week.

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Matchup Breakdown

PIT offense vs. GB defense

The Steelers' offense has looked much better since they came out of the bye week and Diontae Johnson returned to the line-up. Johnson may not be one of the elite receivers in the league (although he is very good), but his role within this offense is massive. His route-running and reliability in the short area passing game create so much that did not exist when he was on Injured Reserve. He gives Kenny Pickett a quick option that can serve as an extension of the run game and take some pressure off Pickett making plays deeper into the play development. He also commands the attention of top cornerbacks, giving George Pickens a better matchup on the other side. Since the bye week, the Steelers have had two good games on offense (against the Rams and Titans) and one bad game (against the Jaguars) by my predictive metrics. But that Jaguars game involved Pickett getting injured at halftime and weather that made the field a complete slog to move in, limiting both offenses. The other two performances are much more predictive.

Since late last year, when Pickett took over, the Steelers have been the kind of offense that can consistently win when the ground game is working. This season has been tough, facing some of the league's best defensive fronts in the 49ers, Browns, Ravens, Jaguars, and Titans. Regardless of efficiency stats, those are teams that can shut down the run when they focus on it. The Packers have capitalized against the easiest schedule of opposing offenses by my metrics, which adjust for point-in-time team quality. They also have a very depleted secondary, with Darnell Savage and Eric Stokes on IR, Rasul Douglas traded, and Jaire Alexander questionable for this game. They will have their hands full with Johnson and Pickens, and likely will not be able to commit the resources to consistently stop the Steelers' run game without sacrificing some big plays downfield. They will need to be better on third down than they have been in the past few weeks, but the Steelers should move the ball more often than not in this one.

GB offense vs. PIT defense

Even if the Steelers' offense is inconsistent, they should get enough opportunities to succeed eventually, based on how I project this Packers' offense to perform in Pittsburgh. Early on this season, there was optimism that Jordan Love could put things together with a young, improving group of receivers. I was optimistic based on the history of players with that kind of draft capital getting time to learn the game behind a great quarterback. But we are now eight games in, and optimistic projections have been eclipsed by poor on-field play. Love has benefitted from clean pockets most of the year, facing one of the lowest pressure rates in the NFL despite holding onto the ball in the pocket. He has performed much better on long-developing plays where he can launch the ball downfield and create either a penalty or deep completion. But he has lacked consistency in the short game and routinely fails to make plays happen on time. Some of this no doubt falls on a receiving corps that struggles for separation, but whoever the blame falls on, they aren't getting reinforcements for this game. It does look like Christian Watson will play after suffering a potential injury last week, but his frequent trips in and out of the lineup do not inspire confidence that he can take a full complement of snaps here.

This means the Packers' only real hope on offense is to establish a strong running game with Aaron Jones. But as they have learned this season, it is much tougher to establish the ground game when the defense does not respect the pass. Granted, he has been dealing with injuries, but Jones' yards per carry is, by far, the lowest of his career. A big part of that is how much Aaron Rodgers manipulated defenses into creating space for explosive runs. A.J. Dillon is also averaging, by far, a career low. So it's not just Jones' injuries. The Steelers got Cam Heyward back from injury last week, who helps in both run-stopping and providing pass-rush help to T.J. Watt. Heyward did miss practice on Thursday, so that is something to monitor, but his absence would not be enough to give the Packers the edge on offense here. Much like Will Levis struggled in the second half against this Steelers' pass rush, I expect Love to be hurried in his decision-making, rendering him unable to capitalize on long-developing plays downfield. I also doubt he can overcome this defense, in a loud environment on the road in Pittsburgh, when big third downs come up. If the Steelers take the lead and force the Packers to abandon the run game, it could get ugly.

Market Evaluation

This line opened at a cheap PIT -3 in most places, which quickly got bet up to -3.5. But bettors showed interest in Green Bay at +3.5, and now books are straddling the line between 3 and 3.5, offering an expensive -3 or a cheap -3.5 on Pittsburgh. Many bettors call this type of line -3.25. I would have anticipated more interest in Pittsburgh here, so the market resistance does cause me some hesitation. But I think I understand where it is coming from. The Steelers are one of the worst 5-3 teams I can ever remember, based on their holistic quality of play to date. Requiring a team that typically struggles to eke out short wins against bad teams to cover a big number is asking a lot. But while they have been lucky, they have also gotten healthier in material ways. Ultimately, I continue to value the Packers lower than the market, and I'm comfortable with that.

Best Bet

In this game, I value the difference between PIT -3 and PIT -3.5 at around 18-20 cents. In other words, PIT -3 -120 is roughly equivalent to PIT -3.5 -101. Right now the best price on the board is PIT -3 -118 on DraftKings, with PIT -3 -120 available at Caesars, BetMGM, and Bet365. But -3.5 +100 is available at Circa and Betonline. It's a close call, but if the -3 -118 is unavailable, I would slightly prefer PIT -3.5 +100 over -3 -120. However, the -3 -120 is less risky because PIT by 3 is a high-percentage outcome. I'm feeling risk averse, so let's make the official play PIT -3 -120.

PIT -3 -120 (Bet365, Caesars, BetMGM, DraftKings has -118)