Week 13 NFL Pick'em & Survivor Pool Picks: Cowboys Ground Seahawks in Jerry World

Nov 29, 2023

Joe Rondone/The Republic/USA TODAY Network

We have six fewer teams to pick from this week with no monster spreads, but there are still picks to be made and pools to be won. With the help of PoolGenius' customizable tools and data, I’ll select matchups with some value so that you can get to the top of those leaderboards in pick'em contests and survive another week in knockout pools.

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Week 12 Recap

The Lions let us all down on Thanksgiving but the rest of my selected teams came out victorious last week (Cowboys, 49ers, Steelers). My record is now 24-11 since starting this column in Week 5.

Pick'em Pool Breakdown

Before I get into the picks, note I’m not suggesting you should make all of the picks listed below. The best Week 13 picks for your NFL pool depend on strategy factors such as your pool’s size, rules, and prize structure, plus situational factors like your current place in the standings and the number of weeks remaining.

However, these picks do provide some of the best opportunities to differentiate your Week 13 picks from your pool opponents by taking on only a modest amount of risk, or no additional risk at all.

Favorite Favorites

Miami Dolphins @ Commanders

Washington can’t stop much at this point and they won’t be able to cover Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle. The Dolphins are 9.5-point road favorites with 81% win odds via PoolGenius. Public bettors are taking Miami 98% of the time so you’ll win or lose this pick with your whole pool.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Seahawks

Seattle is coming into this Thursday Night contest with poor QB play behind an underperforming line, and Dallas will pick them apart on both sides of the ball at home. The Cowboys are nine-point favorites in this one with both Vegas and PoolGenius win odds at 80%. As always with these lopsided contests, you’ll win or lose with most of your pool as 97% of bettors are taking Dallas this week.

Sensibly Priced Favorite

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cardinals

The Steelers are only favored by 5.5 points in this contest despite being at home and facing a 2-10 Arizona team. They have new life without Matt Canada calling plays and should roll on Sunday despite lower win odds (68%). Public pickers are taking Pittsburgh 95% of the time which is high, but not as high as some other contests with similar spreads like Tampa Bay (97%).

Value Favorite

L.A. Rams vs. Browns

A West Coast trip for a Browns team that’s plagued with injuries on both sides of the ball isn’t very encouraging. Cleveland hasn’t eclipsed 13 points in their last two games and the Rams should shut them down and score enough at home to win. Los Angeles is a 3.5-point favorite but only 70% of the public is backing them, creating plenty of value in the selection.

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Survivor Picks for Week 13

Win Odds: Top 5 Week 13 Picks

Stating the obvious here, but higher is better when it comes to winning odds. Everything else being equal, you want to pick the team with the best likelihood of making it through.

Here are the five safest teams this week, according to the PoolGenius Data Grid model (chances to win in parentheses):

Dolphins @ Commanders (80%, 9.5-point favorites)
Cowboys vs. Seahawks (80%, 9-point favorites)
Jaguars vs. Bengals (77%, 8-point favorites)
Chiefs @ Packers (71%, 6-point favorites)
Steelers vs. Cardinals (70%, 5.5-point favorites)

Pick Popularity

Diversifying your survivor picks from the crowd is an advantageous strategy, as the pool winnings can increase significantly if your pick hits and another popular pick loses.

Here are the five most popular survivor picks for Week 13 (referencing Data Grid mentioned earlier):

Buccaneers vs. Panthers (34%)
Jaguars vs. Bengals (22%)
Steelers vs. Cardinals (20%)
Chargers @ Patriots (10%)
Dolphins @ Commanders (2%)

Future Value

The last piece of the survivor pool puzzle is future value. If you fire off a powerful team in Week 13, you won’t be able to use them later. According to PoolGenius, here are the top five teams in future value entering this week for a 100-entry standard rules pool: