Week 13 Sunday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS: Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays

Dec 02, 2023

Sunday Night Single-Game DFS: Chiefs at Packers

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the Showdown Breakdown for Week 13 Sunday Night Football, featuring an exciting battle between the Chiefs and Packers. Both teams are jockeying for crucial playoff positioning, with the Chiefs—sitting at 8-3—still in the hunt for the AFC’s top seed in the AFC, while the Packers—at 5-6—sit just one game back of a Wild Card spot in the tightly contested NFC. Let's look into the key plays and strategies for this intriguing one-game slate.

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Game Environment

_{^{This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20% and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. We’ll include last year’s statistics through Week 4 of the regular season. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.}}

Chiefs (-6.5, 24.25) @ Packers (+6.5, 17.75); Over/Under 42

Kansas City's approach this season has been pass-heavy and fast-paced in neutral game situations, but they typically don’t spend much time in that mode each game. They rank third in pass plays per game but have shown a tendency to slow their tempo way down when leading, which happens frequently given their fourth-best average score differential. Patrick Mahomes has shifted his play style slightly this year, averaging just 3.7 deep passes per game, right at the league average. But his red zone aggression remains high with an average of 6.2 attempts inside the 20 per game. While much of the media talk up Kansas City’s offensive struggles—and some criticism is warranted—it’s all relative. They still rank top 10 in touchdowns per game and top 10 in offensive DVOA.

On the other side, the Packers tend to play slower than the league average, and with a balanced attack in neutral scripts. Jordan Love has shown a penchant for seeking high-leverage attempts, averaging 4.9 deep passes per game and 5.7 red zone passes per game, both figures placing him in the top 10. Driven at least partially by a bottom-10 game script score, Green Bay's overall pace of play is the 11th fastest in the NFL. They rank 20th in pass plays per game and score touchdowns as an offense almost exactly at an average rate. Their approach might pivot slightly with the absence of key players like Aaron Jones and possibly Jayden Reed but don’t expect this team to abandon its relatively balanced identity unless game script forces them to.

Quarterback Analysis

_{^{While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. the average NFL team. Completion % over Expected (CPOE)represents the accuracy and efficiency of a QB’s passes compared to league expectations.}}

Patrick Mahomes, while not reaching his usual elite standards, still performs well above average on a per-drive and per-game basis compared to the rest of the league. His expected points added (EPA) per game ranks in the top 10 in the NFL this season, however, Mahomes falls outside the top 10 in average depth of target (aDOT), yards per attempt, and fantasy points per attempt. His mobility remains a minor factor, averaging five rush attempts and 27 yards per game. But he hasn't scored a rushing touchdown this year and is now down to seventh in expected fantasy points per game. Mahomes is currently outside the top five in per-game scoring at the quarterback position. He's had top-six finishes in points per game in every season as a starter. The Packers' pass defense DVOA ranks a middling 17th, though it’s bolstered by the return of Jaire Alexander. On paper (and especially in previous) seasons, we’d expect Mahomes to dominate.

Jordan Love is showing signs of improvement, exemplified by the team’s big win over the rival Lions in Week 12. After a stretch of six games with under eight yards per attempt, Love has surpassed that mark in three of his last four games, never dipping below 7.2 yards per attempt in that span. He’s topped 250 pass yards in three consecutive games, and he is averaging a very respectable 2.0 passing touchdowns per game in this period.

Love continues to show a willingness to go deep, ranking fourth in air yards per attempt, and shockingly, he currently has a slight lead on Mahomes in fantasy points per dropback this season. Love averages 3.4 rushes per game, outside the top 15 quarterbacks, which doesn’t do his expected fantasy point value any favors, but he’s still up to 10th among quarterbacks in fantasy points scored, averaging just under 19 points per game. Love faces a much improved Kansas City defense that ranks sixth-toughest in aFPA to quarterbacks and fourth-toughest in aFPA to opposing receivers and tight ends.