Week 14 Monday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS: Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays

Dec 11, 2023

Monday Night Single-Game DFS: Titans at Dolphins

Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the showdown breakdown for the first game of the Week 14 Monday Night Football two-game slate, showcasing a compelling matchup between the Titans and the Dolphins. The Titans, at 4-8, are the sixth-worst team in the NFL, touting a porous -37 point differential. And yet, in the wacky AFC South, they still cling to fleeting playoff aspirations. The Dolphins, on the other hand, are enjoying a stellar season at 9-3, leading the AFC South and can vault into the AFC’s top spot with a victory. Let’s take a look at some values, top plays, and strategies for those focused on single-game DFS this Monday night.

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Game Environment

_{^{This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20% and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. We’ll include last year’s statistics through Week 4 of the regular season. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.}}

Titans (+14, 16) @ Dolphins (-14, 30); Over/Under 46

The Dolphins are unsurprisingly favored by two scores and have an implied total of 30 points. The Titans, who are known for their slower pace of play, may be compelled to adapt and pass much more than they like if they fall behind early. Their average score differential of -1.4 doesn’t affect them, as they still rank 29th in overall pace of play. They have seen a huge uptick in deep passes (6.2 passes of 20-plus air yards per game) with Will Levis under center, but the aggressiveness ends when the team gets close to the goal line. They have a bottom-10 ranking in red zone pass attempts per game.

The Dolphins’ unique offensive scheme doesn’t rely on an overly high pass rate or unique pace of play in neutral game scripts. Yet they have managed to maintain a top-five average score differential throughout the season. This efficiency has led to the team ranking bottom 12 in overall pass plays and pace, but don’t let that fool you—despite being just top 15 in deep passes per game (3.8) and a top-12 standing in red zone passing (4.6 per game) this is an unrivaled offense from an explosiveness standpoint, that has scored the most touchdowns in the league.

Quarterback Analysis

^{_{While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. the average NFL team. Completion % over Expected (CPOE)represents the accuracy and efficiency of a QB’s passes compared to league expectations.}}

Tua Tagovailoa has exceptional metrics across the board this season, ranking top three in completion percentage vs. expected, true drive success rate, and EPA per game. He’s second in adjusted yards per attempt and third in true passer rating, while leading the NFL in PlayerProfiler’s accuracy rating. Tagovailoa has been equally strong against both man and zone coverage, ranking top five in accuracy scores against both schemes. He contributes little with his legs, averaging just 3.3 yards per game. Still, he ranks 12th in fantasy points per game, well above his 18th-best expected fantasy points per game average among quarterbacks.

The Titans' Will Levis has played respectably, but not efficiently in his six NFL starts. He’s slightly above average in completion percentage vs expected, but his performance on a per-drive and per-game basis is only at or below average in each of the key efficiency categories in the chart above. Levis ranks 18th in adjusted yards per attempt but falls outside the top 30 in true passer rating. He loves the deep ball, averaging the highest air yards per attempt in the league at 9.7 yards. Like Tagovailoa, Levis offers limited rushing upside, averaging 2.8 carries without any rushing touchdowns yet. He ranks outside the top 24 in expected fantasy points per game.