Week 16 Sunday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS: Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays

Dec 23, 2023

Sunday Night Single-Game DFS: Patriots at Broncos

Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the showdown breakdown for Week 16 Sunday Night football, a matchup between the Patriots at Broncos that looks less than thrilling on paper with a 34-point total. For the Broncos, it's a game loaded with playoff implications. For the Patriots, it’s as close to must-lose if they know what’s best for their franchise’s long-term health. Let’s look into the data and note the core playmakers and key strategies to help you dominate this single-game slate.

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Game Environment

_{^{This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20% and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. We’ll include last year’s statistics through Week 4 of the regular season. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.}}

Patriots (13.75) @ Broncos (20.25); Over/Under 34

The Patriots, standing at 3-11, are in a tough spot, holding the second pick in the upcoming draft if the season ended today. They’ve lost nine out of their last 11 games. They're beat up at the skill positions, with Juju Smith-Schuster, Rhamondre Stephenson, and now Hunter Henry set to miss Sunday's contest. The focus is now on Bailey Zappe under center, as they look towards a future that likely includes a top quarterback pick in the 2024 draft. The Patriots' offense has been characterized by a higher-than-average pass rate and faster play in neutral game scripts. Despite these efforts, they struggle to maintain drives, resulting in a below-average total of pass plays per game. Since Zappe's takeover, the team's deep attempts per game have dipped to 2.3, and red zone pass attempts are just under one per game. They average 1.5 touchdowns per game, fifth worst in the league.

The Broncos, with a record of 7-7, are on the fringe of the very AFC playoff race. They're part of a tight competition with seven teams at 7-7 or 8-6, making every game a playoff-like scenario. Despite winning six out of their last eight games, they’ve been shaky of late, highlighted by a bad loss to Detroit in Week 15. Denver's gameplay is characterized by a slower pace and a lower-than-average pass rate in neutral game scripts. Even while ranking 25th in average score differential, their pass plays per game and overall pace remain near the bottom of the league. At the very least, Russell Wilson does not shy away from taking shots to his big-play receivers, averaging 4.1 deep attempts per game and 5.2 red zone pass attempts, both ranking in the top ten among quarterbacks. The Broncos remain in the lower tier in terms of offensive touchdowns per game, often contributing to lower-scoring games due to their conservative style.

Quarterback Analysis

_{^{While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. the average NFL team. Completion % over Expected (CPOE)represents the accuracy and efficiency of a QB’s passes compared to league expectations.}}

Zappe's brief tenure as the Patriots' quarterback has been a challenging one. Ranking outside the top 25 in completion percentage against expectation, Zappe's struggles are evident, and that metric looks good compared to most others—he’s outside the top 40 in true drive success rate and Expected Points Added (EPA) per game. He averages a meager 4.6 adjusted yards per attempt and holds an alarmingly low EPA of -29.6. While there have been sporadic highlight plays, though many of them were to Hunter Henry, who's been downgraded to out for Week 16. Zappe's overall output is perfect for your franchise, so long as the goal is to get a top-three draft pick. From a fantasy standpoint, his average of 6.3 points per game tells you all you need to know.

Wilson's season has been a rollercoaster of inconsistency. On a positive note, Wilson is above average in completion percentage vs expectation and true drive success rate, indicating his capacity to complete challenging throws and sustain drives. However, his below-average standing in EPA per game suggests that turnovers have been a significant detriment to his overall performance. Sure enough, Wilson leads the league in pressured throws this season and has suffered from the 13th most receiver drops. These factors have led to a disconnect between his 20th rank in Quarterback Rating (QBR) and a higher standing of seventh in true passer rating. However, from a fantasy perspective, he has, counterintuitively shown remarkable consistency, scoring between 13 and 19 points in every game since Week 7, making him a steady, if unspectacular, fantasy option.