Fantasy Football Fallout: Josh Jacobs to the Green Bay Packers
The free agent RB carousel continues to spin with its next stop Green Bay. Josh Jacobs is expected to sign a four-year deal with the Packers worth $48 million to replace Aaron Jones who they released during the first day of the legal tampering period.
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Josh Jacobs' Career
In his five years in the NFL, Jacobs has rushed for 5,545 yards which is the second-most behind Derrick Henry’s 7,209 since 2019. His 46 rushing touchdowns also sit second to Henry (68) in that timeframe. We can’t forget his pass-catching chops, as Jacobs’ career 1,448 receiving yards ranks ninth among RBs from 2019-2023.
His best campaign was in 2022 where Jacobs led the NFL in all-purpose yards (2,053), translating to an overall RB3 finish in half-PPR scoring and the RB4 on a per-game basis. Sadly, last year the 26-year-old took a step back after holding out during the preseason and having to play on the franchise tag. Jacobs missed four contests and his efficiency and output also took a hit from 2022.
| Year | Rushing Attempts | Rushing Yards | Rush TDs | Y/A | Tgts | Receptions | Rec Yards | RYOE | RYOE/Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 340 | 1,653 | 12 | 4.9 | 64 | 53 | 400 | +158 | +0.47 |
| 2023 | 233 | 805 | 6 | 3.5 | 54 | 37 | 296 | -86 | -0.37 |
* RYOE= rushing yards over expected, RYOE/Att= rushing yards over expected per attempts
At just 26 years old there is plenty of runway left for Jacobs and with a fresh start, and a better offensive line in Green Bay which was 10th in 4for4’s end-of-season rankings compared to Vegas (14th), 2023 is hopefully an outlier for the RB.
The Packers 2024 Backfield Outlook
Outside of Jones and Dillon, the only other backs to even touch the football were Patrick Taylor (43), Emanuel Wilson (18), James Robinson (2), and Kenyan Drake(1). That leaves Jacobs to carry a considerable workload, which should be no problem for an RB who shouldered a large volume of touches with the Raiders.
Jacobs played in at least 13 games in each of his five seasons and logged the second-most rushing attempts (1,305) with the ninth-most targets and receptions in that five-year span among RBs. He fits the Packers' scheme well and is similar to Jones in skill set with a bit more meat on his bones, plus he’s several years younger.
One beneficial difference between Jacobs and the former backfield is red zone usage and efficiency. Over the past two seasons, Jacobs found the end zone 15 times from inside the 20-yard line compared to eight from Dillon and just four by Jones. From inside the 10, those numbers are 13 touchdowns by Jacobs, seven for Dillon, and only two scores by Jones. Last season the Packers crossed the pylon just 10 times on the ground, with just six coming from their RBs, making Jacobs a great fit to upgrade their scoring potential.
Josh Jacobs Fantasy Outlook and Fallout
With a clear path to a featured role both on the ground as well as the passing game, Jacobs is in the fantasy RB1 conversation for 2024. He’s the RB9 in 4for4’s Never-Too-Early rankings and is currently being drafted as the RB13 in Underdog drafts at spot 5.07. We can expect a small rise in ADP after this signing up into RB1 territory.
For the Raiders, it appears Zamir White will be given the keys to the backfield with Ameer Abdullah in the mix, who re-signed with Vegas for the third-straight season back on March 8th. With Jacobs on the shelf from Weeks 15–18 last year, White was the RB8 overall in half-PPR scoring and RB13 on a per-game basis. He’s currently the RB28 in 4for4’s rankings but it’s still a tad too early to bank on him being the lead back in Vegas.
Jones is expected to sign a one-year deal with NFC North rival Minnesota, likely hurting the fantasy value of Ty Chandler. The Vikings could also add more RB pieces during the NFL Draft, but Jones gives them a veteran option who still has some fuel in the tank. Consider him an RB2 heading into 2024.
*Update: Dillon re-signed with the Packers, but Jacobs' fantasy outlook remains the same, an RB1.
Bottom Line
- While it seems like the Packers weren’t on the radar as a landing spot for Josh Jacobs, the move makes sense from a real and fantasy football perspective.
- Jacobs has the second-most rushing attempts, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns since 2019 and is used to a large workload not only on the ground but via the passing game, too. He’ll likely be heavily involved in both aspects as Aaron Jones is gone and A.J. Dillon will be relegated to backup duty.
- The 26-year-old possesses a similar skillset to outgoing RB Jones with a bit more bulk and less time on this planet and should run well in Green Bay’s zone scheme along with catching passes out of the backfield.
- Jacobs should be considered a fantasy RB1 (4for4’s RB9) and is currently the 13th rusher off the board in early Underdog drafts.
- Raider Zamir White bumps up to an RB2 if he keeps the lead-back job, and Jones, now in Minnesota, should be drafted as a fantasy RB2 (4for4’s RB22).
