Trey McBride Should be a Fantasy Football Star Again in 2024

An underwhelming start to the 2023 season soon gave way to a breakout season to remember for second-year tight end Trey McBride. McBride finished the season with 81 receptions for 825 yards. But can fantasy managers expect a repeat, or even an improvement, of this production in 2024, or will this Cardinal fail to take off in the new season?

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A Tale of Two Teammates

The story of McBride’s 2023 season is one of multiple parts and is completely different when you look at his production when two of his teammates were in the lineup and when they were missing. The players are fellow tight end Zach Ertz and quarterback Kyler Murray. Let’s start with Murray.

McBride was almost an afterthought in the Cardinals offense in eight games without Murray. He played just over 51% of their offensive snaps, commanding 4.4 targets per game. He transformed these opportunities into 3.1 receptions for 31.9 yards and a mighty 5.4 Half PPR points per game. When Murray returned, McBride became the backbone of the passing attack. His snap share jumped to 88.6%, and his targets almost doubled to 8.3 per game. These looks were converted into 6.6 receptions, 67.3 yards, and 11.5 fantasy points per outing. Murray averaged 7.28 Adjusted Yards per Attempt when targeting McBride, the second-highest mark among Cardinals players he targeted at least 40 times in 2023.

The presence of Murray was a considerable boost for McBride, just as the absence of Ertz had the same positive effect. Ertz and McBride co-existed for seven games in 2023, in which McBride played 44% of the offensive snaps while seeing three targets per game. McBride punched out 2.1 catches for 24.3 yards and was unusable in fantasy. But once Ertz went down for the year, McBride became the daddy. His snap share was 86.4%, and his looks shot up to 8.5, which brought 6.6 receptions, 65.5 yards, and 11.7 fantasy points. Ertz is now in Washington, and the good times should continue to roll for McBride.

More Opportunities, Better Fortune?

There are other factors to suggest that the mere absence of Zach Ertz won’t be the only net positive for McBride’s production in 2024. The Cardinals waved goodbye to an absolute ton of 2023 receiving production this offseason, with 39.1% of the team targets a year ago now on other rosters (217). That’s the 6th most in the league in both categories. The Cardinals also have openings for high-value opportunities, sitting 13th with seven vacated targets from inside the 10-yard line.

There is also room for growth for McBride from a touchdown perspective. McBride found the end zone just three times last season, but the great Matt Okada believes that McBride is set for positive regression in the field of scoring. But while everything would seem to be rosy for McBride, there are a few cautionary tales that should lend a sobering air to proceedings.

Team Mate and Team Philosophies?

Assuming the Cardinals follow the blueprint that worked for them last season, they will not be filling the air with footballs in 2024. Last season, the Cardinals' neutral pass rate was just 53%, 28th across the entire league. Overall, they passed on just 56% of their offensive plays, the eighth-lowest rate in the NFL. If the Cardinals are good in 2024 (which they probably won’t be, given their current projected win total), they will do most of their best work on the ground. But even if they are just the same as last season, there won’t be a ton of volume to go around.

There is also the increased quality of target competition for McBride in the shape of Marvin Harrison Jr. The Cardinals spent the fourth-overall pick on Harrison in this year's NFL draft, and they would be crazy to spend up for this kind of sports car only to keep him in the garage. But it must be pointed out that Harrison is not going to command ALL the vacated targets. The NFL doesn’t work like that. Since the dawn of the 21st Century, 55 rookies have seen at least 100 targets in their first seasons. Only two of those players saw at least 150. Harrison will see plenty of the vacated target share from last year, but we saw McBride excel last year once Ertz was out of the way. Even if he doesn’t pick up all the vacated targets himself, his current workload should be enough to keep him fantasy relevant.

2024 Fantasy Outlook

McBride is currently going off the board as the TE3 over on Underdog. He falls all the way down to TE4 in composite ADP. We have seen that McBride can get by on volume, and even with Marvin Harrison Jr. around, he should still have plenty of volume. While I can’t see myself drafting him over Travis Kelce or Sam LaPorta, he is certainly a player I would consider at the top of the next tier of tight ends in 2024.

The Bottom Line

• Trey McBride is one of Kyler Murray’s favorite targets, with existing efficient chemistry between the two.
• Zach Ertz was a progress blocker for McBride, now happily out of the picture.
• The numbers suggest McBride should see a boost in opportunities, and history tells us he should score more touchdowns this year.
• The team philosophy and upgraded weapons shouldn’t stop McBride from remaining one of the top two pass catchers on the Cardinals.