Romeo Doubs: Lost in the Packers WR Room
In a WR room that is talked about often, Romeo Doubs is typically an afterthought. It’s usually “The Packers have a ton of talent, with Reed, Watson, Wicks, and even Bo Melton is interesting. Oh, and yes, they also have Doubs”. And I’m part of the problem. I’ve already written thousands of words this offseason on Reed and Wicks before really digging into Doubs. It’s time to give Doubs his due.
Click here for more 2024 Player Profiles!
Romeo Doubs’ Sophomore Season
Starting with the positives, Doubs has earned above-average open scores from ESPN Analytics in consecutive seasons, hitting a score of 62 in 2023. That clears the first benchmark we care about when I looked at The Most Predictable Wide Receiver Stats. Similarly, he had about 40 yards receiving per game, which again just clears the first benchmark for that volume stat.
Importantly, those stats don’t consider Doubs’ strong playoff games. He earned six targets in both of the Packers’ post-season games. His 6/151/1 line against Dallas was by far the best receiver performance for the team, earning four more receptions than any other Packers WR.
Stylistically, Doubs is a particularly good fit for best ball drafts. His 2023 season hit three of the four markers I found when looking at The Anatomy of a ‘Better in Best Ball’ WR. Generally, we’re looking for WRs that line up outside, run routes deep down the field, and earn a large portion of their fantasy points from long TDs. And Doubs hits a lot of those characteristics with his high aDoT, high TD rate, and low slot rate. But the characteristic he misses stands out as a big outlier.
Doubs averaged 2.3 yards after the catch (YAC) per reception in 2023. That was the eighth-lowest among 107 qualifying WRs. Now, YAC and aDoT are inversely correlated. It’s more difficult for receivers with a deeper target depth, like Doubs, to generate additional yardage after the catch. But when you’re worse in YAC per reception than Tyler Lockett, we have an issue. Similarly, Doubs only recorded a broken or missed tackle on 1.7% of his receptions last season, compared to the NFL average of 12.6%.
And Doubs did not command a ton of volume, particularly near the end of the regular season. He managed a 12-target game and a 13-target game in September, which is honestly very impressive. But then he didn’t exceed seven targets in a game after Halloween. Taken together, the lack of volume and YAC dinged his yards per route run (YPRR). Doubs’ 1.32 YPRR was 63rd among those same 107 qualifying WRs. However, his 8.1% first downs per route run was more promising, landing him in 39th place.
Packers’ Crowded Receiver Room
Perhaps the most positive stat for Doubs is his route rate. In the 11 regular season and playoff games where Christian Watson played, Doubs ran a route on 83% of pass plays when the Packers were in a 3-WR set, according to a tweet by Adam Levitan. This stayed similarly high in 2-WR sets where Doubs hit a route rate of 78%. For context, Jayden Reed only ran a route on 3% of the Packers’ 2-WR looks during this time period.
The biggest question for Doubs’ outlook is does he keep this playing time? Nate Tice recently sent out a poll asking which Packers WR would finish 2024 with the most receiving yards. And Doubs finished a distant fourth, getting 13.5% of the votes and falling behind Reed, Wicks, and Watson.
Now, this is not an unbiased sample. Someone who is voting on the Packers’ WR splits in late July is probably a sicko like I am. But Wicks finishing second in the poll definitely confirmed my priors. Wicks cleared our 2.0 YPRR benchmark and had an above-average open score. On top of that, Wicks earned a first down on 10.2% of his routes. The average Underdog ADP among WRs with an elite 9.5%+ 1DRR is in the middle of the third round. Meanwhile, we can take Wicks in the 9th round, three WR spots after Doubs. But given how quickly Wicks is moving up boards, I expect Wicks to pass Doubs’ ADP before the start of the season.
And yet, one person who might disagree with the poll and recent ADP movements is Jordan Love.
Jordan Love’s Comments and Splits
In a video for Bleacher Report, Love was asked to draw up a play with current NFL receivers that would be unstoppable. And he was allowed to take any WR or TE in the league. He picked Davante Adams, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Josh Jacobs,…and Doubs. It’s a very qualitative element to Doubs’ profile but it’s clear that Love trusts him as his X-WR.
The Packers offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich also had some positive comments on Doubs. He called out Doubs’ improved route running and his elevated performance at the end of last season. That came at a time when Love was also breaking out. The graph below shows completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) on the x-axis and EPA per play on the y-axis. And I’ve circled three versions of Jordan Love. We have Love’s performance in the first half of the 2023 season, the second half of the 2023 season, and his full season averages. For the sake of the Packers’ and Doubs’ season, let’s hope we continue to get the version of Love we saw down the stretch last year.
Bottom Line
• Romeo Doubs cleared a few benchmarks we care about last season with his 62 open score and 40 receiving yards per game. His high aDoT, high TD rate, and low slot rate also hit three of the four characteristics of a ‘better in best ball’ WR.
• However, he was among the bottom eight WRs in YAC per reception and tackle avoidance. And his volume dipped throughout the season after a few impressive games in September.
• The biggest question for Doubs’ outlook is whether his high route rate in 2-WR sets continues. My bet is we see his playing time decrease this season given the talent of Reed, Watson, and Wicks.
• His WR53 ADP is fair but I prefer higher upside plays including his fellow Packer Wicks who you can currently take three WR spots after Doubs.
