NFL Futures Bets: Monotone's Best Bets

Aug 15, 2024

Brett Phelps/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK

For my first article with 4for4, we are going to be diving into some of my favorite NFL props for the upcoming season. I’ve written thousands of NFL prop articles publicly over the last four years and I look forward to delivering well-researched bets for you guys on a weekly basis. In today's article, we target Anthony Richardson and the Colts, along with Malik Nabers and some fun NFC East bets. I've never been the highest volume futures bettor in the world, but I will continue to update this article with any new additions.

The goal is to blend my passion for NFL film study with data-backed analysis to win some money and hopefully learn something along the way. It's a long season with plenty of unexpected twists and turns, so feel free to message me with any questions! Now, without further ado, let's dive right into some of my favorite season-long targets.

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Monotone's Futures Bets

Anthony Richardson o7.5 TD’s +112 1u FD

10+ Rushing TD’s +450 .25u C

Anthony Richardson is one of the most exciting young players in the NFL, and someone I definitely want in my futures portfolio. While he only made it five weeks before a season-ending A/C joint injury, the early results were extremely impressive. He had 4 rushing touchdowns in 4 total games played, showing off his high-level strength and athleticism. He looked like the best goal-line rushing QB since Cam Newton, and I don't see any reason why that doesn't continue. Although it was good to see he wasn't just used on the goal line, considering two of his rushing touchdowns came from 15+ yards out. Even if they do ease up his rushing usage to protect his health, I think that would have a much larger impact on his rushing totals rather than these important red zone short-yardage opportunities. Josh Allen had somewhat of a similar game plan last season, but as the season went on, we saw more and more usage when it mattered most. With a wide-open division here, and the Colts showing some promise last season, I think they will be a competitive team until the very end. Guys are more willing to put their bodies on the line in the bigger moments, which is why I would be less interested in a less competitive team.

It was also incredibly positive to see Shane Stechien's reaction to questions about his rushing usage this season. While reporters pressed him about limiting Richardson’s usage, he fired back with a comparison about limiting Stephen Curry's 3-point shooting. He acknowledged that it was a big part of Richardson's game and something they were going to take advantage of. We already saw aggressive red zone usage in the small sample last season, and with a healthy Jonathan Taylor, I'm expecting this Colts rushing attack to be strong. At the end of the day, this bet is pretty simple, because if Richardson gets anywhere close to playing the full season, then I think he has the potential to destroy this number.

Just a couple of games into his rookie season, and Richardson was already being priced with the elite of the elite in terms of the anytime touchdown markets. By his final game, you were barely getting a plus money price tag, and as this market continues to get extremely popular, I think we're going to have a hard time getting Richardson to score a touchdown at a reasonable price. I really wouldn't be surprised if he is constantly priced in the -120 to -150 range this year. I also love the 10+ touchdown price at +475 on Ceasers as well, considering the rest of the market is firmly sitting in the +225 range. I think it’s pretty logical that if he stays healthy this season, his potential is up there with the best of the best, like Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen, who currently have touchdowns sitting at 10 or above.

Malik Nabers o875.5 Receiving Yards -115 1u DK

I think that if Marvin Harrison Jr. weren’t in this draft class, people would be talking about Malik Nabers in a bit of a different fashion. The LSU standout showed an impressive combination of efficiency and raw talent, posting 3.64 yards per route run while leading the nation in yards after catch, totaling over 86 receptions for 1546 yards last year. He was the #1 graded PFF WR in the country and proved to be dangerous in the open field with 30 missed tackles forced and 17.6 yards per reception. But it’s not like he had to be wide open; he had the second-highest contested catch rate in the nation & was graded by PFF as the best WR in single coverage. He’s one of the best WR prospects in recent years, and I expect him to make an immediate impact on a fairly anemic Giants offense.

Let’s start by looking at his competition because even though I enjoy both of the gadgety WRs he’s surrounded by… it still leaves a lot to be desired! Wan'Dale Robinson was a great reception target for me last season, due to his extremely low ADOT, lack of competition, and the constant negative gamescript the Giants faced. Overall, though, I think he benefited most from the lack of a true alpha WR in the room because almost all of his receiving work came on short-yardage dump downs from a pretty pathetic Giants quarterback situation. He only posted 410 air yards on 525 receiving yards with a 5.2 average depth of target and wasn’t a priority downfield (6 targets all year) or in the red zone (3 targets).

With the loss of Saquon Barkley catching balls out of the backfield, I still see Wan'Dale involved in more short-yardage situations, but at the end of the day, the 5’8 WR is nothing more than a complimentary piece in the passing game. Speaking of complementary pieces, Jalin Hyatt should continue to function as a deep threat to Daniel Jones. Last year, he led the league with a 21 ADOT, with 45% of his targets coming 20+ yards down the field. Jones, on the other hand, continues to carry one of the lowest QB ADOT numbers in the NFL, sitting at 6.9 last season. I don’t expect the offensive line to give ample time for the Giants to be an effective downfield passing team, but even when he has been given the chances, Jones has never been a particularly eager or impressive downfield passer. Overall I think he’s a fun week-to-week cheap DFS WR with Will Fuller-esque upside, who can take the top off a defense while keeping safeties honest and creating more opportunities for Nabers.

While it’s kind of hard to go based on schedule this early, I do see plenty of weakness at the corner position in the NFC East. Washington allowed the most passing yards in the league last year and somehow managed to get worse at corner, while the Eagles are trusting a very inexperienced group behind Slay. The Giants are currently sitting with a win total of 6.5, and they should constantly be placed in negative gamescript where they need to throw the ball whether they like it or not. The Saquon Barkley era is finished, and Devin Singletary is not exactly a workhouse out of the backfield. All the opportunity in the world is there for Nabers to come in and make an immediate impact.