Week 8 NFL Pick Em & Survivor

There’s actually some calm in the survivor world. We’ve had a week or two now where the majority of picks went in the right direction for the public. It remains to be seen if the carnage will return with a vengeance. We’ll kick things off this week, as we always do, with a dive into pick ’em pool strategy, and then guide you through the best approaches for navigating the chaos of survivor pools in the weeks ahead. We’ll be getting an assist from Pool Genius for some analysis.

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The Chalk

Many players get caught up in the details when discussing pick’em pools, often overlooking the bigger picture. While getting games right is crucial, the game theory aspect is often underemphasized. Pick’em pools are as much about probability and strategy as they are about knowing the Xs and Os. We’ll analyze how the public’s picks are trending each week and use that insight to guide our decisions.

Detroit Lions (-11) vs Tennessee Titans
Pick: Detroit
Confidence Point Range: 12-14 Points

This has the potential to be the most lopsided pick ‘em popularity spread of the year. With the Lions riding high and the Tennessee Titans already stripping the team down for parts, this could get ugly. DeAndre Hopkins was just traded to the Kansas City Chiefs, as I started writing this. Detroit has been on fire lately. They have more touchdowns than incompletions over their last four games. Yes, 11 points is a tough number to cover, but if you are in the top 50% of your pick ‘em league, I’d suggest rolling with Detroit. If you’re falling far behind, then you flip to the Titans and hope for a backdoor cover.

Baltimore Ravens (-10.5) at Cleveland Browns
Pick: Baltimore
Confidence Point Range: 8-10 Points

Baltimore is simply better in every statistical category at the moment than their division rival. The main variable here is the “loss” of Deshaun Watson. Watson was, by basically any measure, putting up some of the worst quarterback play of anyone in the NFL. In theory, Jameis Winston should be an upgrade. But, Baltimore is dialed in at the moment. They seemed to find their stride when they beat the Bills and haven’t looked back since. Big favorites can be scary but I think this is a statement game for Lamar Jackson and the Ravens.

Favorite Coin Flip

Each week, I'll outline my favorite matchup where neither team is being picked over 60% in public pools (when possible). These matchups are where pick 'em leagues are won in the long run. You may get lucky here and there with a big underdog that hits, but being right in these matchups that are perceived to be closer can be a huge advantage over the long run.

Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pick: Atlanta Falcons
Confidence Point Range: 6-8 Points

What happened to Tampa Bay with the injuries to Chris Godwin and Mike Evans in the same game was very unfortunate. It’s a big blow to their season. While Godwin is done for the year, Evans should return at some point. That point isn’t this week though, and with Atlanta coming to town and only having to win by a field goal, I’m taking my chances here on them. It’s a coin flip at the moment, with PoolGenius projecting a 51-49 pick split in this game.

Surviving Survivor

Survivor pools are a unique strategic challenge where misplaced emphasis can lead to early exits. Many participants focus heavily on saving strong teams for later in the season, but this strategy can backfire if you overlook the week you're in. The fundamental principle of survivor pools is survival, after all.

The Top Options

Detroit and Denver top the list this week with Baltimore coming in as a close third. That trio is all projected to be above 15% in popularity for pools this weekend. I have plenty of faith in Baltimore to win the game outright, but their future value makes them slightly less appealing for this week. Denver, on the other hand, has essentially no future value. They won’t be favored again for about a month, and that will be a road division game against the Raiders. Winnable, but not the type of game we’d like to target if we can avoid it.

The real winner here is Detroit. They get to face off against the Tennessee Titans as double-digit favorites at home. It’ll be a few weeks before they are slam dunks again. While they do hold some future value, in games against Jacksonville and Indianapolis, we can’t wait that long to use them.

Kansas City will get some picks as well this weekend but they have so much future value that I’d like to hold onto them a bit longer. The other option for some will be the New York Jets. I just keep imagining how I’ll feel being eliminated and looking back saying that I picked the Jets in Foxboro and how that did me in. I think we can hold off on using the Jets, hopefully forever.

The Bottom Line

After a few calmer weeks in survivor pools, it’s crucial to stay focused on week-by-week survival without overthinking future matchups. In Week 6, strong picks like Detroit and Baltimore offer safe options, while Atlanta presents a riskier but potentially rewarding play in closer matchups. As always, adapt your strategy based on your position in the standings—whether you’re protecting a lead or making a comeback. Stay flexible, but prioritize winning this week.