O-Line Rankings and Matchups to Exploit: Week 13

Nov 27, 2024

Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Evaluating offensive line play regarding its effect on fantasy football output has been a stone unturned throughout our game within a game. Here at 4for4, we’re dedicated to looking at fantasy pieces from all angles, including an offensive line's positive and negative impact on that team’s fantasy assets.

Below, I’m going to be digging into specific weekly matchups between offensive lines and the opposing defense's aFPA —one of the many useful tools available to us here at 4for4. Many sites publish raw fantasy points allowed by position, but 4for4 goes a step further and adjusts those numbers for a defense’s relative year-to-date schedule strength. These numbers will continue to strengthen through more data points as the season progresses and, when compared to a team’s advantages within the trenches, will expose fantasy pieces we may not have otherwise considered.

Editor's Note: Check out the complete set of Week 13 rankings here.

Let’s begin by diving into the passing game to see what offensive line/defense matchups we can exploit.

Favorable Quarterback Matchups

Quarterback Matchups
O-Line Ranking	Team	Opponent	aFPA	Difference
5	TB	CAR	29	24
8	CAR	TB	31	23
7	PHI	BAL	26	19
6	KC	LVR	24	18
12	LAC	ATL	28	16
3	DEN	CLE	14	11
20	PIT	CIN	30	10
16	IND	NE	25	9
2	GB	MIA	10	8
11	ATL	LAC	18	7
27	HOU	JAX	32	5
14	NYJ	SEA	19	5
18	ARI	MIN	22	4
1	DET	CHI	3	2
4	BUF	SF	5	1
23	SEA	NYJ	21	-2
9	WAS	WAS	7	-2
30	NYG	DAL	27	-3
15	SF	BUF	11	-4
13	MIA	GB	9	-4
17	NO	LAR	12	-5
21	DAL	NYG	16	-5
31	TEN	TEN	23	-8
24	LVR	KC	15	-9
22	LAR	NO	13	-9
10	BAL	PHI	1	-9
19	MIN	ARI	8	-11
28	JAX	HOU	17	-11
32	NE	IND	20	-12
25	CHI	DET	6	-19
26	CIN	PIT	2	-24
29	CLE	DEN	4	-25

Buccaneers @ Panthers

The Bye Week (and return of Mike Evans) put a little pep into the step of the Buccaneers in Week 12, as they put the brakes on a four-game losing skid that put their playoff aspirations in doubt. This win came against a very beatable New York Giants team, but that was just a taste of what’s yet to come, as Tampa Bay has a silky smooth road ahead of them, continuing with the Carolina Panthers defense here in Week 13.

The Panthers have allowed a league-worst 30.9 points per game, with a pass rush notching a league-low 25.5% pressure rate in the process. Now they’ll face off against a Bucs offensive line that has allowed a league-best 21.9% pressure rate, pinning an immovable object against a stoppable force. This should come as a great benefit to Tampa Bay’s fantasy pieces, as Baker Mayfield sneakily leads the league with 2,405 yards and 21 touchdowns from a clean pocket.

Mayfield is firmly entrenched as a QB1 option in Week 13, which raises Mike Evans’ floor as he looks to top his unusually low 60% snap rate in his first game back from his hamstring injury. May as well throw tight end Cade Otton and running backs Bucky Irving and Rachaad White in the mix as strong considerations for great fantasy stat lines while we’re at it.

Eagles @ Ravens

The return to the field for left tackle Jordan Mailata and the continued health of right tackle Lane Johnson after an early-season scare has done wonders for the Eagles offense, who have racked up 63 points over the last two weeks. Mailata and Johnson have combined for only three pressures and zero sacks, leaving Jalen Hurts free to work his magic without concern for the edges of the pocket. The interior has been no slouch either, as the entire O-line has been docked for only 11 pressures, just about the lowest total you’ll ever see in a two-game sample.

Even better, they did that against the Rams (3rd) and Commanders (15th), both of whom rank in the top 15 in pressure rate, while the Ravens rank 19th. This is a particularly big problem because opposing quarterbacks are averaging 213.3 yards per game (fourth-highest) from a clean pocket, including a league-high 18 passing touchdowns.

We know that the Eagles can get it done on the ground, but the Ravens offense should put up plenty of fight to keep this game highly competitive, as evidenced by a slate-high 51.5 over/under. The Hurts-A.J. Brown connection has been disappointing at times this season, but Week 13 is unlikely to be one of those situations. Brown should be locked into all starting lineups.

Chargers @ Falcons

We’ve already referenced the Carolina Panthers having the league’s worst pressure rate (26.9%), but the Atlanta Falcons are giving them a run for their money (26.9%). This lack of a pass rush has led to teams averaging 27.0 points on them over the last seven weeks, allowing the league’s sixth-highest passing yards per game (211.4) and the fourth-highest completion rate.

On the flip side of this matchup, Justin Herbert currently ranks seventh in on-target rate (82.0%) and third in adjusted yards per attempt (9.8) while throwing out of a clean pocket, something he’s been experiencing a lot recently. Over the last month, Herbert has faced a 31.0% pressure rate, the eighth-lowest in the league, operating as the QB8 in that span. This has been quite the relief after his first month of the season likely saw him dumped off to the waiver wire.

Since we’re anticipating a highly efficient offense from the Chargers here in Week 13, it puts Ladd McConkey —clean bill of health and all— onto fantasy radars as a high-volume WR2, while Will Dissly is fine as a streaming option once again. Quentin Johnston is a good bounce-back candidate but on a week with no byes, it’s inadvisible to introduce that much risk into your lineup if you don’t need to.

Favorable Defensive Matchups

Colts @ Patriots

Drake Maye is truly having a very encouraging rookie season since taking over back in Week 6, but that doesn’t absolve his terrible offense line: he’s still a quarterback we need to be streaming against. After Drake Maye took his 67th (!!) pressure and 12th sack of the last month against the Miami Dolphins defense, the Patriots are really pulling away from the pack in regards to pressure rate allowed. Their league-high 41.2% is 3.6% higher than the next closest competitor (Houston Texans), which is the same gap between the 31st-ranked team and the 22nd-ranked team.

A resurgent Indianapolis Colts pass rush should be licking their lips. Since interior lineman DeForest Buckner returned to action back in Week 8, the Colts have jumped to 12th in pressure rate (37.0%) and 10th in sacks per game (2.8) after ranking 25th (29.7%) and 23rd (2.0), respectively, through the first seven weeks of the season.

Giants @ Cowboys

The Giants are clearly having a “our coach is already fired, but we don’t feel like dealing with it right now” type of season, but the pass rush is certainly not to blame. They have earned at least four sacks in six different games, with veteran Dexter Lawrence and the newly acquired Brian Burns leading the way.

According to Brandon Thorn’s “high-quality pressures,” —his methodology for filtering out plays in which the defender gets to the pocket unblocked, the quarterback runs into his arms, etc.— both Lawrence (16, t-18th) and Burns (16, t-18th) both rank in the top-20 on the year, while Lawrence has the sixth-most sacks in the league (9.0). This bodes well against a Cowboys interior that is likely missing right guard Zack Martin —who has been struggling with injuries when he’s in the lineup anyway— and could be without left guard Tyler Smith, who is dealing with his own ankle and knee ailments.

The Giants are a great D/ST streaming option for Thanksgiving.

Favorable Running Back Matchups

Running Back Matchups
O-Line Ranking	Team	Opponent	aFPA	Difference
5	TB	CAR	32	27
1	DET	CHI	27	26
4	BUF	SF	26	22
2	GB	MIA	22	20
6	KC	LVR	25	19
15	SF	BUF	28	13
16	IND	NE	29	13
9	WAS	WAS	20	11
22	LAR	NO	31	9
8	CAR	TB	16	8
7	PHI	BAL	12	5
27	HOU	JAX	30	3
14	NYJ	SEA	17	3
12	LAC	ATL	14	2
3	DEN	CLE	5	2
17	NO	LAR	18	1
19	MIN	ARI	19	0
21	DAL	NYG	21	0
26	CIN	PIT	24	-2
13	MIA	GB	10	-3
11	ATL	LAC	4	-7
10	BAL	PHI	3	-7
23	SEA	NYJ	15	-8
32	NE	IND	23	-9
20	PIT	CIN	7	-13
29	CLE	DEN	13	-16
18	ARI	MIN	2	-16
25	CHI	DET	8	-17
30	NYG	DAL	11	-19
28	JAX	HOU	9	-19
24	LVR	KC	1	-23
31	TEN	TEN	6	-25

Bills vs. 49ers

The Buffalo Bills rank fifth in adjusted line yards on the season (4.74), while the 49ers defense ranks 19th (4.44). Sometimes it’s just that easy. What puts a theoretical wrench in the process is rookie Ray Davis, who does take some short-yardage and goal-line work from James Cook, but it’s not enough to truly be worried about Cook’s overall workload. Cook still has nine carries (and five touchdowns) from inside the opponent’s 10-yard-line since returning to the lineup in Week 7, a massive boost to his bottom line from the 2023 season.

A common pick for a possible Super Bowl 59 matchup, the 49ers don’t quite look up to snuff, including their middling run defense and oft-injured offensive lineup. With the Bills currently sitting as 7-point favorites against a Brandon Allen/Joshua Dobbs-led group, Buffalo could end up leaning on Cook for much of the game, locking him in as a high-end RB2.

Chiefs vs. Raiders

Though Isiah Pacheco isn’t likely to get a huge bellcow workload in his first week back to in-game action, it would be foolish of the Chiefs to keep his explosive ability off the field after watching Kareem Hunt go down on first contact for the last two months. Out of 61 qualifying running backs, Hunt ranks 54th in yards created after contact (2.38) and 56th in breakaway rate (5.5%). For comparison’s sake, Pacheco ranked 21st (3.04) and 11th (30.5%) in those metrics over the 2023 season.

We can assume Hunt will still get a big piece of the pie as 13.5-point favorites, but Pacheco in a limited role still makes him a high-end RB3 in this matchup. We’ll be considering him a top-15 option for our fantasy playoffs.

Running Backs with Bad Matchups

As opposed to breaking down every bad matchup through the rest of the slate, here are some running backs I’m looking to avoid because of their poor offensive line and/or the strong defensive fronts they will be facing: