O-Line Rankings and Matchups to Exploit: Week 15

Dec 11, 2024

Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Evaluating offensive line play regarding its effect on fantasy football output has been a stone unturned throughout our game within a game. Here at 4for4, we’re dedicated to looking at fantasy pieces from all angles, including an offensive line's positive and negative impact on that team’s fantasy assets.

Below, I’m going to be digging into specific weekly matchups between offensive lines and the opposing defense's aFPA —one of the many useful tools available to us here at 4for4. Many sites publish raw fantasy points allowed by position, but 4for4 goes a step further and adjusts those numbers for a defense’s relative year-to-date schedule strength. These numbers will continue to strengthen through more data points as the season progresses and, when compared to a team’s advantages within the trenches, will expose fantasy pieces we may not have otherwise considered.

Editor's Note: Check out the complete set of Week 15 rankings here.

Let’s begin by diving into the passing game to see what offensive line/defense matchups we can exploit.

Favorable Quarterback Matchups

Quarterback Matchups
O-Line Ranking	Team	Opponent	aFPA	Difference
7	CAR	DAL	29	22
11	LAC	TB	32	21
2	GB	SEA	18	16
14	NYJ	JAX	28	14
8	WAS	NO	22	14
10	ATL	LVR	20	10
24	LVR	ATL	31	7
3	DEN	IND	10	7
19	ARI	NE	25	6
9	BAL	NYG	15	6
1	DET	BUF	6	5
16	SF	LAR	21	5
22	DAL	CAR	26	4
23	JAX	NYJ	27	4
6	TB	LAC	9	3
15	IND	DEN	17	2
13	MIN	CHI	14	1
30	TEN	CIN	30	0
5	BUF	DET	5	0
4	PHI	PIT	2	-2
12	KC	CLE	7	-5
21	MIA	HOU	16	-5
28	CLE	KC	23	-5
17	LAR	SF	12	-5
31	NYG	BAL	24	-7
27	CIN	TEN	19	-8
25	CHI	MIN	13	-12
18	NO	WAS	4	-14
26	SEA	GB	8	-18
29	HOU	MIA	11	-18
20	PIT	PHI	1	-19
32	NE	ARI	3	-29

Panthers vs. Cowboys

This might be the first time we’ve been able to talk about the Panthers in this space in the 2024 season. Not particularly because of the play of their offensive line, but because of a passing attack with lows so low that it’s not worth pointing out potential fantasy pieces in a non-bye week. Luckily for us, Bryce Young has looked far more competent since his early-season benching, accruing a 752-3-1 stat line over the last three weeks, which has led to multiple options popping up as waiver wire targets after they turned into complete afterthoughts.

While the interior of the Panthers O-line —particularly their free agent-addition guards— has been a strength throughout the year, their tackles have put together some strong games against some tough opponents over these last three weeks. Left tackle Ikem Ekwonu has allowed only one sack since returning from his ankle injury in Week 12, and right tackle Taylor Moton has been a stud on the other side, ranking behind only Tristan Wirfs and Lane Johnson in PFF’s pass-blocking efficiency metric (98.7).

This matchup and Adam Thielen’s reawakening —21 targets in the last two weeks— make him a very solid WR3 in Week 15, while rookie Xavier Legette is a great deep-league Flex option for managers struggling at the position.

Packers @ Seahawks

As someone who got knocked out of Scott Fish Bowl due to Jayden Reed’s 0-fer last week, it pains me to write up the Packers’ passing offense, but we will persevere.

Jordan Love and the boys will head to the Pacific Northwest to take on a surging Seahawks team in a game that should have plenty of fantasy goodness. Though Seattle’s pass rush has looked stellar over the last few weeks, those performances came against the Arizona Cardinals and the New York Jets, two OL units that are nowhere near the level of the Packers’. Green Bay now ranks second in the league in adjusted sack rate (4.2%), while Love has thrived out of a clean pocket all season long.

Operating on dropbacks deemed “no pressure” by Sports Info Solutions, Love ranks fifth in the league with 8.9 yards per attempt (out of 37 qualifying quarterbacks) and trails only Lamar Jackson with a 7.2% touchdown rate. Those situations are where the aforementioned Reed has made his hay; leading the team in receptions (39) and yards (599), and trailing only Tucker Kraft (6) in touchdowns (5).

As a (very) biased fantasy player, even I have to concede that Reed’s upside is far too great to keep him on benches in our playoff matchups that start three WRs. Plug your nose and stick him in as a WR3.

Chargers vs. Buccaneers

The Chargers have begun to be mainstays in this article over the second half of the season, though the passing volume has failed us a time or two in that span. Their pass-to-rush rate in neutral game scripts is more or less middle of the pack (18th), but they run the second-slowest offense in the league (29.8 seconds/snap), which has led to Justin Herbert dropping back less than 30 times on multiple occasions. For comparison’s sake, Jameis Winston has 187 dropbacks over the last four games (46.8/game) to Herbert’s 151 (37.8/game). That’s probably not the fairest comparison, but it does highlight how little volume we get from this passing attack when the team doesn’t find it necessary to take to the air.

That shouldn’t be the case here against a Buccaneers defense that ranks a respectable 13th in RB aFPA, but 28th to tight ends, 31st to wide receivers, and 32nd to quarterbacks. While the Bucs have allowed the 10th-lowest rushing yards to non-QBs on the season (89.2/game) they allow the fourth-highest passing yards per game (272.8), operating as one of the league’s most stark pass funnels.

Herbert should operate as a high-end QB2 here, while Ladd McConkey is an easy WR2 click if he’s cleared in time. If not, both Quentin Johnston and Joshua Palmer are intriguing options in the WR3 range.

Favorable Defensive Matchups

Cardinals vs. Patriots

I completely understand the trepidation you may feel about playing the Cardinals D/ST after you click their “player” page and see that they scored a whopping -1.0 points last week, their second time falling below zero on the season. But this is a fantastic bounceback opportunity, against a Patriots offensive line still looking for ways to keep Drake Maye upright. Maye is coming off yet another game where he’s taken four sacks, the fourth time he’s taken at least that many in his seven full games.

This pairs well with an Arizona pass rush that has at least five sacks in three of their last five. The Patriots rank near the bottom of pretty much any metric you can come up with, but their 40.8% pressure rate allowed is easily the league’s worst, leading to Maye attempting only 166 passes deemed “in pocket” and “no pressure,” less than 28 other quarterbacks.

Dolphins @ Texans

Much like the aforementioned Cardinals, the Dolphins D/ST also has an unsightly -1.0 performance on their resume (Week 13), but they have a chance to jump to the other side of the zero against a Texans O-line that has had some shaky performances against good pass rushes. Though they have looked strong over their three most recent games, it’s worth pointing out that the Titans rank 23rd in pressure rate, and the Jaguars rank 31st.

Even with those pass rushes being stymied, the Texans still rank 25th in adjusted sack rate (9.0%) and 30th in pressure rate allowed (36.5%). C.J. Stroud’s struggles in a muddied pocket have continued, ranking 17th in yards per attempt (6.4) and 31st in touchdown rate (2.1%) after finishing 2023 19th (6.0) and 35th (1.9%), respectively, in those metrics during his rookie season. While Laremy Tunsil is still playing elite ball at left tackle, there are some issues elsewhere on the line, namely, right guard Shaq Mason, who has already allowed the most sacks (8) of his 10-year career, and we still have four more games to play.

The Dolphins are an intriguing high-ceiling play on this slate, and happen to be priced near the minimum ($2,500) at DraftKings, for players looking for a contrarian click.

Favorable Running Back Matchups

Running Back Matchups
O-Line Ranking	Team	Opponent	aFPA	Difference
3	DEN	IND	29	26
8	WAS	NO	32	24
4	PHI	PIT	28	24
1	DET	BUF	23	22
2	GB	SEA	21	19
9	BAL	NYG	27	18
14	NYJ	JAX	30	16
13	MIN	CHI	24	11
15	IND	DEN	25	10
22	DAL	CAR	31	9
19	ARI	NE	26	7
10	ATL	LVR	14	4
17	LAR	SF	20	3
7	CAR	DAL	9	2
11	LAC	TB	13	2
6	TB	LAC	7	1
18	NO	WAS	17	-1
5	BUF	DET	2	-3
12	KC	CLE	8	-4
27	CIN	TEN	22	-5
16	SF	LAR	10	-6
23	JAX	NYJ	16	-7
29	HOU	MIA	18	-11
32	NE	ARI	19	-13
30	TEN	CIN	15	-15
26	SEA	GB	11	-15
20	PIT	PHI	5	-15
24	LVR	ATL	6	-18
21	MIA	HOU	3	-18
31	NYG	BAL	12	-19
25	CHI	MIN	4	-21
28	CLE	KC	1	-27

Broncos vs. Colts

Analyzing the Broncos' backfield “rotation” is enough to make one’s head spin, but with a great matchup standing in front of them, we at least need to give it a shot. The Colts currently sit at 29th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to the RB position, thanks in large part to their 31st ranking in non-QB rushing yards per game (123.5). Indianapolis is coming out of their bye, just one game removed from Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson combining for 135 yards on the ground against them.

The matchup here is, of course, not the issue; it’s digging into who we should actually stick in a lineup to take advantage of it. We can eliminate rookie Audric Estime, who has all of 12 carries on a 13.8% snap share since his 14-carry Week 10, though beat writer Nick Kosmider recently opined that he has “probably earned a longer look in that role” in reference to the short-yardage work that Javonte Williams has handled with mostly poor results.

This leads us to Jaleel McLaughlin, who is coming off of a career-high 84 yards on 14 carries in a game where head coach Sean Payton mentioned they could beat the Browns' defense with “sweeps and toss plays.” Well, McLaughlin might be in luck here.

When filtering SIS’ database to only “pitch,” “stretch,” and “sweep” running plays, the Colts rank 31st in “points allowed above average” (-3.13), which is a fancy EPA-focused way of saying that the defense is allowing far more yards (and touchdowns) on these plays than they should be. If Payton and the Broncos are privy to this information —I have no doubt that they are— the second-year player should get enough run to cash in as a fantasy RB3.

Commanders @ Saints

Jayden Daniels is (justifiably) the major story surrounding the Washington Commanders’ offense, but this offensive line deserves its flowers as well. Washington ranks 11th in adjusted line yards (4.55) and seventh in RB yards before contact (1.83), numbers that are no doubt bolstered by defenses having to take Daniels’ proficiency as a runner into account.

Whether Daniels or the OL should get a larger piece of the credit certainly doesn’t matter in this matchup against a Saints defense ranking dead-last in RB aFPA, and with Austin Ekeler out due to his second concussion of the season, Brian Robinson is left to gobble up the empty spaces in New Orleans. BRob is an easy click as an RB2 in Week 15 and has plenty of upside to land in the top 10 if he finds the end zone.

Running Backs with Bad Matchups

As opposed to breaking down every bad matchup through the rest of the slate, here are some running backs I’m looking to avoid because of their poor offensive line and/or the strong defensive fronts they will be facing: