O-Line Rankings and Matchups to Exploit: Week 17

Dec 25, 2024

Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

Evaluating offensive line play regarding its effect on fantasy football output has been a stone unturned throughout our game within a game. Here at 4for4, we’re dedicated to looking at fantasy pieces from all angles, including an offensive line's positive and negative impact on that team’s fantasy assets.

Below, I’m going to be digging into specific weekly matchups between offensive lines and the opposing defense's aFPA —one of the many useful tools available to us here at 4for4. Many sites publish raw fantasy points allowed by position, but 4for4 goes a step further and adjusts those numbers for a defense’s relative year-to-date schedule strength. These numbers will continue to strengthen through more data points as the season progresses and, when compared to a team’s advantages within the trenches, will expose fantasy pieces we may not have otherwise considered.

Editor's Note: Check out the complete set of Week 17 rankings here.

Let’s begin by diving into the passing game to see what offensive line/defense matchups we can exploit.

Favorable Quarterback Matchups

Quarterback Matchups
O-Line Ranking	Team	Opponent	aFPA	Difference
1	BUF	NYJ	31	30
5	PHI	DAL	30	25
8	CAR	TB	32	24
4	DEN	CIN	26	22
6	TB	CAR	28	22
13	WAS	ATL	29	16
3	GB	MIN	18	15
14	SF	DET	25	11
12	LAC	NE	22	10
7	BAL	HOU	10	3
21	LVR	NO	23	2
16	NYJ	BUF	17	1
2	DET	SF	2	0
9	ATL	WAS	6	-3
23	CLE	MIA	20	-3
30	TEN	JAX	27	-3
28	CIN	DEN	24	-4
17	IND	NYG	12	-5
19	NO	LVR	14	-5
20	PIT	KC	15	-5
11	MIN	GB	4	-7
29	HOU	BAL	21	-8
25	JAX	TEN	16	-9
10	KC	PIT	1	-9
18	LAR	ARI	9	-9
15	DAL	PHI	5	-10
24	ARI	LAR	11	-13
26	CHI	SEA	13	-13
32	NE	LAC	19	-13
22	MIA	CLE	7	-15
27	SEA	CHI	8	-19
31	NYG	IND	3	-28

Panthers @ Buccaneers

The stars are aligning this week for Bryce Young to enter legitimate QB streaming conversations. Over the last four weeks, his pressure-to-sack rate has dropped to 16.9,% which is not only far from the worst in the league, it’s actually far below average, as he has started to pick his scramble rate up for the first time in his NFL career.

This week, he’ll get a Bucs defense that ranks dead last in QB aFPA, thanks in part to the 22.9 yards/game they’ve allowed through scrambles, the seventh-most in the league. Along with Young, Adam Thielen should be considered a strong WR2 candidate in this matchup.

Commanders vs. Falcons

The Commanders have had some O-line shake-ups —including 39 pressures allowed— over the last two weeks, but Jayden Daniels continues to prove he’s the most valuable rookie in the league. Things should be a little easier coming off of a battle with the Philadelphia Eagles’ front, as the Falcons rank 29th in pressure rate (29.4%), leading to a bottom-three ranking in both QB aFPA (29th) and WR aFPA (32nd).

In a 34-7 blowout win, we didn’t get to see everything that Michael Penix Jr. can offer to the Falcons’ offense, but we can assume their sky-high run rate will drop in this matchup, which could easily turn into a high-scoring affair. Daniels and Terry McLaurin are must-starts everywhere, but we can look elsewhere for tight ends as Zach Ertz’ recent usage, paired with a difficult matchup (Falcons are 6th in TE aFPA) creates a scary floor.

Broncos @ Bengals

The Cincinnati Bengals need some dominoes to fall in order to find their way into the playoff picture after their 4-8 start, but the Denver Broncos can punch their ticket by simply winning this road game. It’ll be a difficult task to keep up with the Joe Burrow offense on the other side, and will they choose to try to do it with Javonte Williams/Audric Estime/Blake Watson, or will they put the load on Bo Nix’s shoulders? We’re gonna have to assume the latter.

The Bengals defense —outside of Trey Hendrickson— is (at least) below average on every unit, and have been notoriously bad at tackling, allowing a league-high 2.36 yards after contact per reception. The gap between themselves and second place (Saints) is .26 yards, the same gap between second and eighteenth place (Jaguars). This bodes well for plenty of YAC opportunities to bolster Nix’s floor, and Courtland Sutton can easily deliver a WR2 performance.

Favorable Defensive Matchups

Colts @ Giants

It truly doesn’t matter who the Giants land on in their game of QB roulette; they’re going to feel the heat of a bad offensive line, and they’re unlikely to have the physical tools to do anything about it. Drew Lock is slated to take the fall this week behind an O-Line allowing the third-highest pressure rate (38.0%) in the league. His numbers under pressure this year are…not great, including a 0.4 adjusted yards per attempt (40th/42 qualifiers) and a 6.5% INT rate (38th/42).

Lock the Colts up anywhere you can.

Chargers @ Patriots

Drake Maye actually has a more-than-decent pressure-to-sack rate on the year (19.9%), but the Patriots have allowed the third-most pressures (233) on the season despite ranking 14th in dropbacks (572). That pressure rate (39.9%) is the worst in the league, and when you factor in the fact that they’re also dead last in RB yards before contact (0.93) and blown block rate (3.56%), you start to get a clear picture of why they’re having a hard time moving the ball even though Maye has flashed talent in his opportunities.

It feels like the floor for Chargers sacks here is 4.5.

Favorable Running Back Matchups

Running Back Matchups
O-Line Ranking	Team	Opponent	aFPA	Difference
2	DET	SF	25	23
6	TB	CAR	28	22
4	DEN	CIN	24	20
1	BUF	NYJ	16	15
17	IND	NYG	31	14
18	LAR	ARI	30	12
12	LAC	NE	23	11
9	ATL	WAS	18	9
10	KC	PIT	19	9
25	JAX	TEN	32	7
5	PHI	DAL	12	7
8	CAR	TB	13	5
21	LVR	NO	26	5
16	NYJ	BUF	21	5
13	WAS	ATL	17	4
3	GB	MIN	6	3
11	MIN	GB	14	3
27	SEA	CHI	27	0
30	TEN	JAX	29	-1
7	BAL	HOU	4	-3
14	SF	DET	10	-4
28	CIN	DEN	22	-6
19	NO	LVR	9	-10
31	NYG	IND	20	-11
15	DAL	PHI	2	-13
29	HOU	BAL	15	-14
22	MIA	CLE	7	-15
24	ARI	LAR	8	-16
20	PIT	KC	1	-19
23	CLE	MIA	3	-20
26	CHI	SEA	5	-21
32	NE	LAC	11	-21

Bills vs. Jets

With the Bills ranking 4th in (offensive) adjusted line yards and the Jets ranking 25th in (defensive) adjusted line yards, we’re presented with an easy discrepancy to target. Combine that with the fact that James Cook is doing his best Derrick Henry goal-line impression, and there is no way you’re taking him out of your lineups in Championship Week.

Rams vs. Cardinals

The Rams have had some absolutely miserable luck along the offensive line this season, which makes it all the more impressive that they rank sixth in adjusted line yards. The return of TE Tyler Higbee was also immediately felt in their Week 16 win over the Jets, as Kyren Williams found the end zone for the 15th time this season, directly behind a teammate freshly off a gruesome injury last January. Riding high on vibes against a Cardinals team that was just eliminated from the playoffs, Kyren is ready to help to deliver us our fantasy crowns.

Running Backs with Bad Matchups

As opposed to breaking down every bad matchup through the rest of the slate, here are some running backs I’m looking to avoid because of their poor offensive line and/or the strong defensive fronts they will be facing: