Super Bowl 59 In-Depth Breakdown, Picks, Predictions, and Odds
This is now my 11th year of writing a Super Bowl breakdown! I had the 49ers winning in a close game last year, unfortunately, which moved my record to 7-3 on outright winner predictions for the Super Bowl.
For those of you who haven’t read any of my past previews, I include in-depth statistics and analysis, with the goal being to make the game more predictable by adding context. Most of the metrics I use are efficiency-based. Because it gets a bit dense, I split it into two sections, focusing on when each team has the ball.
My Super Bowl Best Bets article will be SEPARATE from this, and you can get access to that for just $8.49 with promo code: “WIN”! I have already released three plays, with more to come. Subscribe here, join our discord to see the live releases, or check out the article for the summary!
Super Bowl 59 Matchup
- Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles
- Date: Sunday, February 9th, 2025
- Time: 6:30 PM EST
My official Super Bowl prop betting record:
- 2023: 7-2 (straights) for +2.67 units
- 2022: 5-2, +1.2 units
- 2021: 7-2, +1.81 units
- 2020: 3-2, +0.75 units
In 2024, I had my best season of official player props ever. My non-alt props won 61.7% of the time, and I finished up +42.88 units in total. That means $100 per unit bettors would be up $4,288 if they tailed every play. All plays came with write-ups, two-minute warnings, and multiple outs, allowing people to easily get down $100+ a pop.
2025 Super Bowl Preview
Before we dive in, I want to give a massive shoutout to Fantasy Points, DVOA, Pro Football Focus, Sports Info Solutions, and RBSDM, in addition to our own data team. They all have extremely valuable data and tools that make research much easier.
When the Eagles have the Ball
The Eagles have been absolutely dominant this season. They have lost just one game since their Week 5 bye, and it was a 3-point loss to the Commanders without Jalen Hurts even playing. In games Hurts played after the bye, the Eagles have been trailing in the 4th quarter at any point in just 2-of-13 games for a combined total of 4 minutes and 15 seconds.
The Eagles have been wildly run-heavy since their Week 5 bye with a -10% pass rate over expectation. They finished with the most rushing attempts in a season since 1984. A lot of their rushing success has come on the back of Saquon Barkley and that’s reflected in a lot of their metrics.
They are #1 in rushing EPA, 3rd in explosive run rate, 6th in dropback EPA, but just 15th in passing success rate. Jalen Hurts hasn’t quite played up to the caliber we would expect two years post-2022 breakout but still set career-highs in completion rate (68.7%) and TD rate (5%).
He also has been without his primary trio of pass-catchers in full force for a good chunk of the season. Dallas Goedert, DeVonta Smith, and A.J. Brown only played a full complement of snaps in 5 total games this season together, including the playoffs. I’ll revisit these splits throughout this section, so keep them in your back pocket for later.
On paper, the Chiefs' defense looks incredibly average at 17th in EPA and 16th in success rate overall. They had a very strong first 10 weeks of run defense but tapered off in a big way toward the end of the season. In the 1st 10 weeks, the Chiefs run D ranked 4th in EPA and 3rd in success rate. From Week 11 through playoffs, they are 20th in EPA and 24th in SR, allowing 4.85 yards per carry. This is especially troublesome against this Eagles team and dynamic rushing ability.
Yet, if we rewind to the Super Bowl two years ago, there are some striking similarities. In 2022, the Eagles had the best running offense in the league (#1 in EPA) and were squaring up against a pretty average (and bad against good running offenses) run defense in the Chiefs.
The Eagles obviously didn't have Saquon but were carving up everyone else on the ground, ranking 1st in rushing EPA. The Chiefs came in and incapacitated their running game. Miles Sanders, Kenneth Gainwell, and Boston Scott combined for 45 yards on 17 carries. They allowed just 0.41 yards per contact per attempt (3rd lowest for Eagles all season) and stacked the box at their 4th highest rate of their season. We know Chiefs DC Steve Spagnulo adjusts big time in the playoffs depending on his opponent.
Nothing has changed this season as the Chiefs run D has played crazy light boxes (as high as 72% and low as 8% in single games) and also stacked the box (8+ defenders) a good amount periodically (including the highest rate against BUF last week where they allowed just 2.8 YPP on stacked plays specifically). Cook still got his, but it wasn't on plays where KC stacked the box.
The Eagles have actually been mortal when running against 7+ and 8+ guys in the box. They average 4.29 YPC vs 7+ and just 2.69 YPC against 8+ with a 52.9% stuff rate. Filtering out tush pushes (3+ yards to go and 8+ in the box), they were still not great, with a 63% stuff rate and 3.2 YPC.
While this seems straightforward for the Chiefs (stack the box and slow down the fun), it isn’t that simple because the Eagles have AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert.
In the aforementioned five games sample with all of them, Jalen Hurts averaged 7.66 YPA, 5 TD/2 INT, 4.1% completion percentage over expectation, and a 65.6% completion rate. The target shares in those games:
- 26% AJ Brown
- 21.6% Dallas Goedert
- 19.8% DeVonta Smith.
The Chiefs play the second-highest amount of 2-high/MOFO (middle of field open) coverages at 61.1%. Against single high, Hurts has been much better with a 70.4% completion rate, 8.97 YPA, +8.3% CPOE on an 8.8 average depth of target. Against 2-high those numbers drop to a 66.5% completion rate, 6.5 YPA, and +3.1% CPOE on a 7.6 ADOT.
Against 2-high coverages in the games with all wideouts playing, AJB has a 23.2% target share, 21.4% Goedert and just 14% for DeVonta Smith. The sample size is pretty small, to be fair, though, with just 67 routes for Brown and Co.
Another potential issue for this passing game and Jalen Hurts is pressure. The Chiefs are 5th in pressure rate and 4th in blitz rate, dialing up exotic blitzes in high-leverage situations. We saw a great example of that last week on Josh Allen’s 4th down play, but there are tons of examples throughout the Chiefs’ playoff history. Spags continues to be one of the best at calling unique blitzes and disguising them well. This is especially scary for Hurts because under pressure, he has a 44% completion rate while averaging just 4.9 YPA this season, ranking 19th of 24 QBs with 375+ dropbacks.
OC Kellen Moore and Jalen Hurts need to bring their “A” game in this one with quick options on virtually every play; otherwise, they will be in trouble. One option could be Dallas Goedert, who arguably has the best matchup against the Chiefs.
The Chiefs have allowed the most yards to tight ends this season at 1,191 (66 yards per game), allowing 10 games with a TE clearing 46.5 yards. This includes:
- Brock Bowers: 140 and 58 yards
- Isaiah Likely: 111 yards
- George Kittle: 92 yards
- Mike Gesicki: 91 yards
- Cade Otton: 77 yards
- Pat Freiermuth: 60 yards
-Kyle Pitts: 59 yards
- Stone Smartt: 54 yards
- Ja'Tavion Sanders: 49 yards
Since Goedert returned from injury, he has been on an absolute tear with games of 7/85, 4/56, 4/47, 4/55 (no Hurts). The other games all came with Jalen Hurts throwing the ball only 28, 20, and 21 times.
A.J. Brown will draw McDuffie and Jaylen Watson a good amount, but I wouldn't be surprised to see more of Watson on him, who is a bit of a bigger corner, 3 inches taller than Mcduffie. Mcduffie has allowed 50+ yards in coverage each of the last 4 games including a long one to Mack Hollins last game. He allowed a long TD to A.J. Brown in the SB two years ago and gave up 67 yards on 5 receptions to Courtland Sutton, another big-bodied wideout, in shadow coverage (80%+ routes) earlier this season.
I’m not as excited about DeVonta Smith’s potential for this game, given his splits vs 2-high and lowered target share with all three primary options playing, but he did lead the team in receiving in the Super Bowl two years ago. Those were different times, though, in terms of passing outlook.
Jahan Dotson, in that 5 game sample with Smith, Brown, and Goedert, was targeted just 5 times on 92 routes. Of the 131 players with 20+ targets on the season Jahan Dotson ranks 129th in yards per route run at 0.49. Of the 129 players who ran 200+ routes this season, Dotson ranks dead last (129th) at 0.08 targets per route run.
I love writing this article each year because it is always a chess match with two weeks to prepare for each other. I expect the Chiefs to do virtually everything they can to stop the run and pressure Jalen Hurts. This will almost certainly leave them exposed a bit on the back end, but with Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson, I think the Chiefs will be fine with giving up a big play here and there if it means stopping the run and forcing Jalen Hurts to beat them. Does Kellen Moore know they may do this and come out passing a bit more? It wouldn’t be that surprising, considering their PROE is only -5% in the first quarter compared to -10% for the full games. Either way, I expect Spags and the Chiefs to give the Eagles a tough time on a per-play basis, with the Eagles ripping a few big plays to Saquon, AJ Brown, and Goedert.
When the Chiefs have the ball
The Chiefs are 17-1 on the year with Mahomes as the starter, yet haven’t been as dominant offensively as we are accustomed to. They scored 30+ points just 3 times in those 18 games and are 8th in EPA and 5th in success rate, with similar numbers in passing metrics, but rank just 13th in rushing EPA. These aren’t necessarily bad numbers, but they certainly aren’t as strong as their 2022 metrics.
Their lack of offensive dominance has kept opposing teams in games this season, with 12 of the Chiefs' 17 wins coming by one score. Part of the reason they haven’t been lighting up the scoreboard is their lack of big plays. They rank just 28th in explosive pass rate and are last in explosive run rate.
Even if they were a bit better at explosive passes, it may not have mattered because the Eagles' defense is designed to specifically prevent big plays. They lead the league in Cover-6 and play the 3rd most Cover-4 while playing 70% zone coverage. The Vic Fangio mantra of bend-don’t’break is in full effect as it relates to explosive pass rate allowed, ranking #1 in the league. They haven’t been bending much either, though, ranking 1st in dropback success rate and 3rd in dropback EPA since Week 5. I am using Week 5 as a split because they injected Cooper DeJean as a full-time player, and have played much better since then. There are some minor strength of schedule notes here, though:
Against Stafford, Lamar, Burrow (No Higgins) & healthy Jayden Daniels:
- 258 passing yards per game allowed
- 63.3% completion rate
- 13 TD/4INT
- 6.4 YPA
Against everyone else:
- 131 passing yards per game allowed
- 61.5% completion rate
- 3 TDs/ 6 INTs
- 4.8 YPA
I want to be very clear, the Eagles are still one of the best defenses in the league and are very good. They probably just aren’t on the level of the 2023 Ravens or other elite defenses, historically.
The Eagles don't get a ton of pressure with a 17.6% pressure rate (5th lowest rate) but also only blitz at the 6th lowest rate. This is actually okay against Mahomes since blitzing him has historically been a bad decision and pressure. While it helps, it shouldn't be at the cost of sacrificing good coverage. This year, he is roughly in the middle of the pack in terms of completion rate and YPA against both the blitz and pressure.
I expect the Chiefs to attack the Eagles specifically in the middle of the field. Since Nakobe Dean went down, Oren Burks has become a full-time player. He has allowed 21-of-23 targets thrown his way to be caught this season. His presence and Zach Baun struggling in coverage lately has resulted in tight ends having big games lately. They allowed 5-26 to Tucker Kraft in about a half of football, 9-63-2 to Higbee/Parkinson, then 13-115-0 to Zach Ertz and John Bates.
It could hypothetically mean more Noah Gray as well, but because Burks is already a full-time player, extra 2TE personnel may not make as much sense as Worthy or Kelce running option routes and crossers over the middle to attack Burks (H/T Amico for the ball-knowing consult).
I don’t expect Mahomes and company to attack in the intermediate and deep outside areas much, if at all, because of how good Quinyon Mitchel and Darius Slay have been, allowing just a 51.2% and 54.9% completion rate in coverage this season.
The Bills played a lot more Man to try and stop Travis Kelce last week, but that hasn’t really been the Eagle's MO this season (70% zone rate). If they don’t have a specific plan for Kelce, he legitimately could catch 10 balls just sitting in between coverages. Prior to last week’s game, Kelce had 70+ receiving yards in 14 consecutive playoff games. He isn’t the Travis Kelce of old but is still able to get it done when it matters, as evidenced by his 7-117-1 game against Houston in the Divisional Round.
Marquise Brown saw a big usage spike in the playoffs and has run 72% and 74% of the routes the last two games. He plays mostly on the outside (65%) but still sees his fair share of slot usage. His increased usage hasn’t resulted in a ton of production, but the opportunity will likely be there again in the Super Bowl.
Xavier Worthy has been dominant as of late. Just like we saw Rashee Rice come on down the stretch last season, Worthy has 5+ receptions in each of his last 7 games and two strong playoff performances of 6-85-1 and 5-45. He has a 21 and 23% target per route run rate the last two weeks.
JuJu Smith-Schuster saw a massive bump in playing time last week with a 63% routes run rate after a 41% rate in the Divisional Round. He has now usurped DeAndre Hopkins as the WR3 in this offense behind Worthy and Brown. It’s easy to forget that Juju was the original “replacement” for Rashee Rice, popping off for 130 yards on 7 receptions against the Saints earlier this year. He got injured during that game and has slowly worked his way back into a bigger role. It’s possible Juju is used to attack the middle of the field as well since he sees a heavy dose of slot snaps, but could also draw Cooper DeJean a fair amount, too.
Hopkins has run just 13 and 11 routes in two playoff games so far. He has caught a total of 1-of-3 targets for 11 yards in the playoffs, and that one catch came against backup CB Kaiir Elam, who was only playing because Christian Benford was ruled out. Mahomes and the team made it a point to attack Elam (rightfully so) as soon as he was in the game, which is how Hopkins got his borderline free 11 yards.
I’ve waited this long to talk about the Chiefs running back situation because it isn’t pretty. Isiah Pacheco suffered an early-season injury in Week 2, missing the next nine games. The Chiefs tried to ramp him up with 7 carries in Week 13, 14 carries in Week 14, and 13 carries in Week 15. The issue was, he was consistently outperformed by Kareem Hunt. His usage has decreased now in 5 consecutive games since then as the Chiefs realized he isn’t 100%. He has carry shares of 58% > 38% > 33% > 30% > 24% > 15%. Last week Pacheco had just 4 carries to Hunt’s 17, and since his injury, Pacheco is averaging just 3.47 yards per carry to Hunt’s 3.6.
There was a report by James Palmer explaining that the Chiefs will ride the “hot hand” and right now, that is Hunt. Hunt’s hand is about as hot as a January night in Chicago, but the Chiefs have to run the ball sometimes, right?
This is also a tough matchup to run the ball in general, with the Eagles allowing just 3.68 yards per carry to opposing running backs, 2nd in run D EPA, and 7th in rushing success rate allowed. Any running by the Chiefs will likely be very inefficient and likely more as a means to move the chains on short yardage or try to keep the defense honest.
Final Prediction
After digging in, I think the total of 49.5 in this game is a bit high as both teams struggle to move the ball consistently. I expect Spags and the Chiefs' defense to slow down the Eagles' running game on a per-play basis with a few big pops from Barkley and the passing game. The Eagles will likely force the Chiefs to become one-dimensional, but they could opt to just dink and dunk their way down the field, something Mahomes has progressed immensely throughout his career. When it comes down to it, I see the Chiefs winning in a close one.
Score: Chiefs, 24-21
Find all of my official bets for the Super Bowl here!
