The Fantasy Football Implications of TreVeyon Henderson to the Patriots

With the sixth pick of the second round (38th overall), the New England Patriots landed running back TreVeyon Henderson. The second half of the Ohio State duo (teammate Quinshon Judkins went two picks earlier) is an explosive game-breaker with legendary third-down ability, who will immediately challenge incumbent starter Rhamondre Stevenson for snaps. The impact for fantasy — and for the Pats — will be dictated by how many of those snaps Henderson can claim. So let's break down what we can expect.

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TreVeyon Henderson Prospect Profile

TreVeyon Henderson was not only a five-star recruit coming out of high school, but he was the number one running back in the nation in his class, well ahead of Bucky Irving and Jonathon Brooks, among others. He then made an instant impact at Ohio State, rushing for 1,248 yards (second-most by a freshman in school history) and scoring a Buckeye freshman record 19 scrimmage touchdowns. He missed five games as a sophomore, but still contributed significantly, then returned as the lead back in 2023, with 1,155 scrimmage yards and 11 scores in 10 games. Finally, he racked up another 1,300 yards and 11 TDs in 2024, while rushing for 7.1 yards per carry as the "Lightning" to Quinshon Judkins' "Thunder." Ultimately, he finished with the third-most all-purpose yards (4,614) and third-most scrimmage scores (48) in Ohio State history. On the short list of Power-Five backs to compile 4,500+ yards and 45+ TDs in the last 20 years, Henderson's 6.9 yards per touch rank fourth, behind Melvin Gordon III, Travis Etienne Jr., and Dalvin Cook (and just ahead of Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley, and Nick Chubb, among others).

And the tape is electrifying: scary acceleration, a speed-to-power style that welcomes contact and often obliterates it, excellent hands, and some of the best pass-blocking reps in the class (or any class).

TreVeyon Henderson pass pro is the football version of “if he wanted to he would”. If the 5’10/202-pound RB is blocking like this no one has any excuse pic.twitter.com/ogUWqIfXLc

— James Foster (@NoFlagsFilm) March 22, 2025

Henderson is explosiveness personified. As his Next Gen Stats Athleticism Score of 92 would suggest, the 5-foot-10, 202-pound speedster is a rocket out of the backfield and a terror at the second level. He hit 23.38 miles per hour on his 4.43 40 at the combine and recorded a 38.5-inch vertical and 128-inch broad jump to boot. In the history of NGS's data, only two backs drafted in the first two rounds have earned a higher Athleticism Score and a higher Production Score than Henderson: Reggie Bush and Breece Hall. Incidentally, Bush is PlayerProfiler's "Best Comparable Player" for Henderson.

The major question mark with Henderson is his size, and consequently, his durability. He's 15-20 pounds short of "prototypical" weight; Judkins weighed in 19 pounds heavier and shouldered 50 more carries than Henderson last season. You'll frequently hear comparisons to Aaron Jones, who we associate with explosivity and versatility ... and missing games. And it's not unfair: running backs drafted this high are historically not this slight, for this very reason. But the times may be changing. From 2014 through 2021, only one back under 205 pounds was selected in the first two rounds: Christian McCaffrey in 2017. But Henderson is now the third over the last four drafts, joining Jahmyr Gibbs and James Cook. Both Gibbs and Cook have shouldered well over 200 touches the last couple seasons, neither has missed significant time (knock on wood), and both are currently valued as RB1s in dynasty. (Oh, and not coincidentally, CMC, Gibbs, and Cook all ran in the 4.4s at their respective combines.)

Will New England cap Henderson's touches in a Thunder-Lightning duo to keep him fresh and healthy? Or will he play his way into more opportunity regardless, a la Gibbs and Cook?

Henderson in the Patriots Offense

The most obvious wrinkle in Henderson's landing spot is the presence of Rhamondre Stevenson. The 227-pound thumper has started 26 of 27 games played over the last two seasons and led the team with 207 carries, 801 rushing yards, and seven rushing scores in 2024. Moreover, the team just signed him to a four-year, $36 million contract last June (currently fifth-most average annual value at the position). At face value, it would seem New England has designs on their own Thunder-Lightning duo, with Stevenson carrying the early-down workload and Henderson featuring on third downs and bringing the spark when needed. But before you let Stevenson's presence knock Henderson down your rookie draft boards, let's do some review.

First, the incumbent starter has not been particularly efficient recently. In 2024, Stevenson ranked 37th in success rate and 42nd in EPA/attempt ... out of 46 qualified running backs. Despite the potential vision for his "Thunder" role, he averaged just 2.7 yards after contact per attempt (44th percentile among qualified rushers). Meanwhile, despite his size, Henderson averaged 4.4 yards after contact per attempt ... second-highest among 85 Power-Five backs with 100+ attempts. That's the 99th percentile. And don't get me started on the passing game, where Stevenson's 4.1 yards per target made him one of the least efficient receiving options in the NFL.

What I'm trying to say is that Henderson may be too good — and Stevenson too "meh" — to see his touches capped as a rookie, or beyond. Even when AJ Dillon saw 214 touches in 2022, Aaron Jones saw 272 and finished as the RB9 in half-PPR. Even as David Montgomery has compiled 456 touches since 2023, Gibbs has totaled 536 and been the overall RB2 in fantasy. If anything, Stevenson may be the perfect pairing to keep Henderson relatively fresh (225-250 touches), while slowly (or quickly) ceding valuable touches to the more dynamic, effective player. Also, it's worth noting that Stevenson was signed by the previous regime — new head coach Mike Vrabel and OC Josh McDaniels have no ties to him, and just paid an expensive price for Henderson.

Also, given the Patriots' lack of receiving depth — a recovering Stefon Diggs, rookie Kyle Williams, and nothing particularly convincing — there's a non-zero chance that Henderson ends up being one of the top targets in this offense. He will be an invaluable asset for young QB Drake Maye, both as a pass-blocker on critical third downs and as a safety outlet when the highly suspect offensive line forces him to improvise. Receiving backs have had high-end fantasy value in McDaniels-led New England offenses before — heck, James White was the half-PPR RB8 in 2018.

Projecting Henderson's Fantasy Value

Given his draft capital and the every-down upside he brings, I see a very high floor for Henderson as a rookie ... the real question is where to build his ceiling. Of the 26 backs selected in the top 50 over the last 10 years, only four (15%) saw fewer than 13 opportunities per game — Derrick Henry, Rashaad Penny, Jonathon Brooks, and Ronald Jones (not the most third-down-friendly group). A whopping 19 of those 26 backs (73%) averaged 15+ opportunities per game, and 15 of those 19 averaged RB2 fantasy numbers (or better). I feel confident putting Henderson in the 15+ opportunities group, especially with his third-down prowess, which gives him a very good chance at RB2 numbers in 2025.

As for his ceiling, I see little reason to set it much lower than Jahmyr Gibbs' rookie year: 17 opportunities and 14.4 half-PPR fantasy points per game, resulting in a low-end RB1 finish. The only true concern in projecting Henderson close to those numbers is his offense — New England was 30th in scoring and 31st in total offense last year, nowhere close to the 2023 Lions. They should improve in 2025, with the development of Drake Maye and the addition of Diggs, and now Henderson and Williams, to a previously weaponless offensive arsenal.

Henderson is currently going 55th overall at RB17 in Underdog ADP (based on data from the last couple of days). As with Omarion Hampton, best-ball drafters are quick to adjust and smart enough to identify the upside with these early-round rookies. However, unlike Hampton (RB13), Henderson is going a tier or two lower, in the realm of the Joe Mixons and Chuba Hubbards. That feels like the right range — especially after what we discussed about top-50 history above — and I'd be happy taking him there. But it's worth noting, if you play in a more casual league (outside of New England), Henderson will likely go several spots lower than this.

The Bottom Line

• TreVeyon Henderson is an explosive running back prospect with top-tier athleticism and highly efficient college production, who brings a glaringly absent jolt to the Patriots offense. He's a little undersized and may not see 300-touch workloads as a result, but his diverse skill set and impressive prospect profile should make him an immediate threat for RB2 upside anyway.
• As arguably their most dynamic playmaker, Henderson should be a focal point for Mike Vrabel, Josh McDaniels, and Drake Maye in this New England offense. I believe he will outpace the far less exciting Rhamondre Stevenson sooner rather than later and see a Jahmyr-Gibbs-like ascension in opportunity.
• At RB17 on Underdog, Henderson is already being viewed as a mid-range RB2 by sharp drafters (and for good reason). You can take him there with confidence, but you may be able to get him later in more casual drafts.