Does the Sophomore Slump Really Exist?

I'm always skeptical of alliterations (which typically are phrases where two or more words start with the same sound) because sometimes it's just too tempting to force a theory to make a snappy saying work. I've always wondered if the sophomore slump fell into this category, so I decided to test the theory in the realm of fantasy football.

What is a sophomore slump? Simply put, it's the theory that successful rookie players will have a less successful second season. Many young players progress, but perhaps there is something about the better rookies that result in inferior second seasons.

Those who study year-to-year stats know that there is a general decline in average end-of-year ranking among the top players at each position. This is due to regression: competition, injury and the fact that the other factors that allowed a player to finish high in the year-end rankings will often change the following year. So don't be alarmed if it looks like the top rookies see a decline in average ranking year over year. That's normal. Due to the possibility of injury, a better gauge is how their per game production changes in year two.

Below are four tables that show the top rookies at each position since the 2001 season and how those players have fared the following year. We're looking for trends that will better enable us to identify players who may regress in the future. Let's start with the...

QUARTERBACKS

From 2001 to 2014, there were 18 quarterbacks who started at least 12 games as a rookie and finished in the top 24. Five of those finished in the top 12 (QB1).

For the QB1 group — quarterbacks with an end-of-season ranking in the top 12 — we only have a sample size of five players, so any conclusions we might draw won’t be too dependable. Cam Newton, Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson maintained or improved their ranking as sophomores while RG3 and Vince Young fell off.

The 13 players in the QB2 group collectively increased their per game performance by 2.1 fantasy points, or 17.5%. This bodes pretty well for 2015 rookies Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota, who as rookies averaged nearly as many fantasy points as Wilson did in 2012. Winston and Mariota look like solid QB2s heading into 2016.

RUNNING BACKS

Over the last 14 seasons, 55 rookie running backs finished in the top 36, so we have a larger sample size with which to work. Fifteen finished as RB1s, 17 as RB2s and 23 finished as RB3s.

Of the 15 backs who finished as RB1s, only five managed to increase their points per game. However, 80% of the RB1 rookies finished in the top 18 as sophomores, so this is a relatively safe group.

The RB2 group (17 players) saw a similar decline in PPG (-5.3%). Of this group, only five (29%) managed to finish in the top 18 as sophomores, and four of those five finished in the top 16 as rookies, so there isn’t a lot of upward mobility in the RB2 ranks.

The RB3 group saw the biggest decline in PPG (-9.6%). Of the 23 rookie RB3s, only 12 managed to finish as an RB3 or higher in year two. Roughly one-third of the players were able to advance to an RB2 level or higher.

There are a number of 2015 rookies poised to do big things in 2016. Todd Gurley, David Johnson and Thomas Rawls are being drafted as RB1s, while Jeremy Langford, T.J. Yeldon and Matt Jones are being drafted as RB2s. Workload-wise, the only player of this group that I’m seriously worried about is Yeldon, who has to share the backfield with the recently signed Chris Ivory. The workload should be there for Gurley, Johnson, Rawls, Langford and Jones.

Karlos Williams is playing behind LeSean McCoy, so he’s not likely to progress significantly without an injury to McCoy. Javorius Allen will compete with Justin Forsett (and others) for touches in the Baltimore backfield.

WIDE RECEIVERS

There were 45 rookie receivers who finished WR4 or higher since the 2001 season. Four finished as WR1s, 11 finished as WR2s, 13 finished as WR3s while 17 finished as WR4s. Of the first group, only Odell Beckham was able to repeat his WR1 finish.

Six of the 11 WR2s (55%) finished as a WR2 or higher in year two, but we don’t know what Kelvin Benjamin would have done had he not torn his ACL prior to his second season.

Ten of the 13 WR3s (77%) managed a WR3 or higher finish in year two. Justin Blackmon did not, and that was largely due to his being suspended in 2013. As a group, the WR3s increased their PPG by 31.6% in year two.

Nine of the 17 WR4s (53%) managed to finish as WR3s or higher as sophomores. As a group, they increased their PPG by 14.9%.

The three 2015 rookies who qualify are Amari Cooper, Tyler Lockett and Stefon Diggs. The future is bright for both Cooper and Lockett, while Diggs should be the primary option in Minnesota’s below average passing game. Three other rookies — Dorial Green-Beckham, Devin Funchess and Jamison Crowder — nearly qualified. Of those three, Green-Beckham seems to have the biggest opportunity to make a leap as a sophomore.

TIGHT ENDS

Six rookies finished as TE1s, while 21 more finished as TE2s.

All six of the rookie TE1s finished #13 or higher as sophomores.

Twelve of the 21 TE2s (57%) finished as the #14 TE or higher in year two with an average PPG increase of 82.2%.

It’s notoriously difficult for rookie tight ends to transition to the NFL, so it’s not a big surprise that both the TE1 and TE2 groups advance significantly on a PPG basis as sophomores.

No rookie tight ends finished in the top 24 last year, but Will Tye finished #25 after taking over for the injured Larry Donnell in Week 8. Clive Walford finished #30 and the Raiders said this offseason that they’d like to expand his role. He averaged 5.2 targets per game over the final five weeks.

Maxx Williams finished #44 as a rookie and will have to contend with Benjamin Watson and possibly Crockett Gillmore, if his surgically-repaired shoulder is good to go.

BOTTOM LINE

So is there such a thing as a sophomore slump? While some sophomores do slump, many don't, so there's no reason to believe that a good rookie will regress just because he's entering his second year. Assuming they stay healthy, young quarterbacks, running backs and tight ends tend to progress, while the good rookie receivers should also improve provided they don't have a negative (or even lateral) change at QB.

Save for tight ends, rookies who finish in the top 12 at their respective positions tend to take a step back (PPG-wise) in year two. Players who finish as QB2s, WR3s, WR4s, TE1s and TE2s tend to advance on a PPG basis. Every player should be evaluated on a case-by-case basis, but this study should be kept in mind when setting expectations for players like Todd Gurley and David Johnson.

The moral of the story? Always be apprehensive around alliterations. They sound spectacular but are sometimes specious.