How Ken Whisenhunt Impacts the Chargers' 2016 Fantasy Outlook

Jul 05, 2016

Throughout the summer, I will be examining how play callers on new teams might impact the overall fantasy value of their respective offenses.

Ken Whisenhunt might have the most relevant play-calling history of any coach in this series, as he was running San Diego’s offense just three seasons ago and most of the relevant skill positions from that 2013 roster remain intact. By considering Whisenhunt’s history in terms of pass/run splits and player touch shares, this study will focus on the aspects of the offense that are most impacted by play calling.

Because Whisenhunt has coached the Chargers so recently, his tendencies in San Diego will be highlighted in comparison to his entire history, rather than focusing on his history as a whole, as I’ve done with other play callers.

A Snapshot of Whisenhunt’s History

2015 was omitted from Whisenhunt’s history, as he only coached the Titans for seven games.

Win-Adjusted Rush Rate
Year	Team	Run %	Pass %	League AVG Run %	aRush %	aRush% Rank
2004	Steelers	61.1%	38.9%	45.1%	55.3%	1
2005	Steelers	57.2%	42.8%	44.9%	54.9%	1
2006	Steelers	45.1%	54.9%	45.1%	45.2%	15
2007	Cardinals	39.6%	60.4%	43.5%	39.5%	26
2008	Cardinals	34.1%	65.9%	44.6%	33.2%	32
2009	Cardinals	37.1%	62.9%	43.7%	35.5%	31
2010	Cardinals	34.4%	65.6%	43.1%	37.0%	29
2011	Cardinals	39.2%	60.8%	42.9%	39.2%	26
2012	Cardinals	34.6%	65.4%	42.3%	37.1%	28
2013	Chargers	45.8%	54.2%	41.7%	44.9%	11
2014	Titans	38.7%	61.3%	41.8%	43.1%	10

Rushing Rankings
Year	Team	Attempts	Yards	TD
2004	Steelers	1	2	6
2005	Steelers	1	5	5
2006	Steelers	14	10	8
2007	Cardinals	25	29	22
2008	Cardinals	32	32	18
2009	Cardinals	32	28	12
2010	Cardinals	32	32	24
2011	Cardinals	28	24	16
2012	Cardinals	32	32	21
2013	Chargers	6	13	25
2014	Titans	29	26	29

Passing Rankings
Year	Team	Attempts	Yards	TD
2004	Steelers	32	28	19
2005	Steelers	32	24	12
2006	Steelers	14	9	12
2007	Cardinals	2	5	4
2008	Cardinals	2	2	3
2009	Cardinals	3	12	10
2010	Cardinals	11	31	31
2011	Cardinals	15	17	13
2012	Cardinals	9	28	31
2013	Chargers	22	4	5
2014	Titans	24	22	22

I recently introduced a metric called Win-Adjusted Rush Rate (aRush%), which takes a team’s pass/run splits and adjusts for wins and losses. When looking at Whisenhunt's pass/run splits, I will reference aRush%, as it is a more accurate representation of a play caller's tendencies.

Whisenhunt’s play calling has been on both ends of the spectrum in terms of favoring the pass versus the run. On paper, Whisenhunt looks like one of the most pass-friendly play callers of the last 10 years, but proper context might change that perception.

While coaching the Cardinals, Whisenhunt was one of the pass-heaviest coaches in the league. In all three of his other stops, Whisenhunt has chosen to favor the run. Even in his only full season in Tennessee, when that team ran three percent below the league average, they were actually the 10th most run-heavy team when adjusted for wins.

In San Diego, Whisenhunt led an offense that ranked 11th in aRush%, running the ball 3.2 percent over the league average, when adjusted for wins.

When it comes to wins versus losses, Whisenhunt’s play calling changes as we would expect. Over his play-calling career, Wiz runs the ball about 13 percent more when his team wins, which is right around the league average.

A position-by-position breakdown will offer some insight into how Whisenhunt's play-calling tendencies translate into actionable fantasy information.

Quarterbacks

The following numbers reflect cumulative production of all quarterbacks.

QB Per Game Averages
Completions	Attempts	Yards	TD	Int	FP	Comp %	AY/A
20.1	33.1	238.9	1.39	1.11	15.0	60.5%	6.5

QB Per Game Averages, By Season
Year	Player	Completions	Attempts	Yards	TD	Int	FP	Comp %	AY/A
2004	Steelers	14.1	22.2	184.4	1.13	0.81	12.4	63.7%	7.7
2005	Steelers	14.1	23.4	189.8	1.25	0.88	14.0	60.0%	7.5
2006	Steelers	19.4	32.6	250.3	1.44	1.44	15.8	59.6%	6.6
2007	Cardinals	22.3	36.9	264.3	2.00	1.50	17.8	60.3%	6.4
2008	Cardinals	26.0	39.2	302.9	1.94	0.94	18.9	66.3%	7.6
2009	Cardinals	24.4	36.9	261.8	1.63	1.06	15.9	66.1%	6.7
2010	Cardinals	17.8	34.9	202.9	0.63	1.19	9.9	50.8%	4.6
2011	Cardinals	19.2	34.4	247.1	1.31	1.44	15.0	55.8%	6.1
2012	Cardinals	21.1	38.0	211.4	0.69	1.31	11.0	55.4%	4.4
2013	Chargers	23.6	34.0	279.9	2.00	0.69	19.0	69.5%	8.5
2014	Titans	18.7	32.1	233.6	1.25	1.00	15.2	58.3%	6.7

Quarterback talent has been a mixed bag for Whisenhunt, but his most successful quarterback season came in 2013 with Philip Rivers. This was also the best fantasy season of Rivers' career, and it wasn’t a function of volume: It was the second-fewest pass attempts that Rivers has thrown in the last five seasons. In fact, when adjusted for wins, that San Diego offense had the second-lowest pass rate of any Whisenhunt team since his time in Pittsburgh. But even with Keenan Allen in his rookie season and Vincent Brown as the number two that year, Whisenhunt was able to coax Rivers to his highest completion percentage and second highest touchdown rate of his career in 2013 by maximizing the talents of other weapons, like Danny Woodhead and Antonio Gates.

Running Backs

Total RB Per Game Averages
Touches	Receptions	Total Yards	PPR FP	% of Team Touches
27.7	4.2	127.3	21.6	59.5%

Total RB Per Game Averages, By Season
Year	Team	Touches	Receptions	Total Yards	PPR FP	% of Team Touches
2004	Steelers	36.0	2.7	161.3	24.9	68.1%
2005	Steelers	33.1	2.9	153.9	24.6	68.1%
2006	Steelers	30.5	4.6	150.2	25.7	62.5%
2007	Cardinals	26.9	4.0	117.1	18.8	56.7%
2008	Cardinals	24.3	5.1	107.0	21.1	51.2%
2009	Cardinals	26.6	6.1	134.4	25.7	56.3%
2010	Cardinals	21.8	3.1	102.3	15.9	57.5%
2011	Cardinals	24.2	3.0	116.6	19.7	55.6%
2012	Cardinals	22.8	3.1	82.3	14.4	53.0%
2013	Chargers	34.9	7.0	170.0	29.8	64.7%
2014	Titans	23.5	4.5	105.5	17.6	57.4%

RB1 Per Game Averages
Touches	Receptions	Total Yards	PPR FP	% of RB Touches
15.6	1.3	68.8	11.0	54.4%

RB1 Per Games Averages, By Season
Year	Player	Touches	Receptions	Total Yards	PPR FP	% of RB Touches
2004	Jerome Bettis	17.1	0.4	65.8	12.1	44.4%
2005	Willie Parker	18.2	1.2	94.7	12.4	51.6%
2006	Willie Parker	23.0	1.9	107.3	18.2	75.4%
2007	Edgerrin James	21.8	1.5	89.1	12.7	80.9%
2008	Tim Hightower	11.1	2.1	39.8	9.7	45.6%
2009	Beanie Wells	11.8	0.8	58.5	9.0	44.1%
2010	Tim Hightower	10.9	1.3	54.5	8.3	50.0%
2011	Beanie Wells	18.2	0.7	78.5	12.6	65.9%
2012	LaRod Stephens-Howling	9.1	1.2	33.1	6.2	35.1%
2013	Ryan Mathews	19.4	1.6	90.3	13.2	55.6%
2014	Bishop Sankey	10.6	1.1	43.9	6.1	45.2%

As I mentioned earlier, running back volume has varied under Whisenhunt. Similarly, his decision to favor a running back committee or lean on a primary workhorse has fluctuated over the years. San Diego’s backfield deserves special consideration, though, mainly because of how unique Woodhead’s role is in this offense.

In 2013, San Diego’s running backs accounted for almost 65 percent of all team touches, a number that would have led the league in 2015, and the most of any Whisenhunt backfield since Jerome Bettis and Fast Willie Parker were sharing touches in Pittsburgh. Ryan Mathews was technically the lead back that season, amassing 311 total touches, but it was Woodhead who finished as an RB1 in PPR leagues.

Not only did Woodhead rank second among all running back in receptions that year, but he led all backs in red zone targets and all players in red zone receptions, scoring seven of his eight total touchdowns from inside the opponent’s 20-yard line.

Win-adjusted rush rates show that Whisenhunt will adjust his approach to managing his backfields, but given a duo both worthy of a significant role, Whisenhunt has shown the ability to maximize the output of more than one running back.

Wide Receivers

WR1 Per Game Averages
Targets	Receptions	Rec Yards	Rec TD	PPR FP	% of Team Targets
8.9	5.2	71.0	0.52	15.5	26.0%

WR1 Per Game Averages, By Season
Year	Player	Targets	Receptions	Rec Yards	Rec TD	PPR FP	% of Team Targets
2004	Hines Ward	6.8	5.0	62.8	0.25	13.2	30.9%
2005	Hines Ward	7.6	4.6	65.0	0.73	15.5	30.4%
2006	Hines Ward	9.0	5.3	69.6	0.43	14.9	24.4%
2007	Larry Fitzgerald	11.1	6.7	93.9	0.67	19.9	28.6%
2008	Larry Fitzgerald	9.6	6.0	89.4	0.75	19.4	24.7%
2009	Larry Fitzgerald	9.6	6.1	68.3	0.81	17.8	26.1%
2010	Larry Fitzgerald	10.8	5.6	71.1	0.38	15.0	31.3%
2011	Larry Fitzgerald	9.6	5.0	88.2	0.50	16.8	28.6%
2012	Larry Fitzgerald	9.8	4.4	49.9	0.25	10.9	25.8%
2013	Keenan Allen	7.0	4.7	69.7	0.53	14.8	19.4%
2014	Kendall Wright	6.6	4.1	51.1	0.43	12.1	18.4%

WR2 Per Game Averages
Targets	Receptions	Rec Yards	Rec TD	PPR FP	% of Team Targets
6.2	3.8	49.6	0.25	10.3	17.5%

WR2 Per Game Averages, By Season
Year	Player	Targets	Receptions	Rec Yards	Rec TD	PPR FP	% of Team Targets
2004	Antwaan Randle El	3.9	2.7	37.6	0.19	7.5	18.0%
2005	Antwaan Randle El	4.3	2.2	34.9	0.06	15.5	18.4%
2006	Santonio Holmes	5.4	3.1	51.5	0.13	8.7	16.7%
2007	Anquan Boldin	8.3	5.9	71.1	0.75	17.5	17.0%
2008	Anquan Boldin	10.6	7.4	86.5	0.92	21.8	20.4%
2009	Anquan Boldin	8.5	5.6	68.3	0.27	14.3	21.7%
2010	Steve Breaston	6.7	3.6	55.2	0.08	9.9	15.7%
2011	Andre Roberts	6.1	3.2	36.6	0.13	7.7	18.2%
2012	Andre Roberts	7.6	4.3	50.6	0.33	11.5	18.8%
2013	Vincent Brown	4.5	3.1	42.1	0.53	10.6	12.9%
2014	Nate Washington	4.5	2.5	40.4	0.13	7.3	14.3%

You’d be hard-pressed to find a coach that has had a pair of more consistent primary wide receivers than Whisenhunt. For the majority of his play-calling career, Whisenhunt had the luxury of leaning on Hines Ward and Larry Fitzgerald, so the fact that his number one receiver has dominated targets comes as no surprise.

Upon his arrival in San Diego, the target share for his primary receiver began to wane, but in 2013 Allen was just a rookie, and Wiz still fed Allen almost 20 percent of the team’s targets. It’s also worth noting that in 2013 and 2014, Whisenhunt’s number one receiver was the number one in name only, as tight ends acted as the primary pass catchers on those teams.

Without a dominant presence at tight end, Whisenhunt’s number two receiver has accounted for a healthy 18.3 percent of team targets, a target share that would have ranked 30th among receivers in 2015. Over his last two stops, his second receiver has accounted for just 13.6 percent of targets, which would have barely cracked the top 50 among wideouts last season.

Tight Ends

Primary TE Per Game Averages
Targets	Receptions	Rec Yards	Rec TD	PPR FP	% of Team Targets
3.6	2.3	26.6	0.20	6.1	9.3%

Primary TE Per Game Averages, By Season
Year	Player	Targets	Receptions	Rec Yards	Rec TD	PPR FP	% of Team Targets
2004	Jerame Tuman	1.3	0.6	5.6	0.19	2.2	5.7%
2005	Heath Miller	3.3	2.4	28.7	0.38	7.6	13.9%
2006	Heath Miller	3.4	2.1	24.6	0.31	6.5	10.7%
2007	Leonard Pope	2.6	1.8	18.3	0.38	5.8	7.2%
2008	Ben Patrick	1.8	1.1	10.4	0.00	2.1	4.6%
2009	Ben Patrick	1.8	1.3	16.2	0.22	4.3	4.9%
2010	Ben Patrick	1.2	1.0	8.2	0.00	1.8	3.5%
2011	Todd Heap	3.6	2.4	28.3	0.10	5.8	10.7%
2012	Rob Housler	4.5	3.0	27.8	0.00	5.8	12.0%
2013	Antonio Gates	7.1	4.8	54.5	0.25	11.6	21.0%
2014	Delanie Walker	7.1	4.2	59.3	0.27	11.6	22.4%

As alluded to in the wide receiver section, Whisenhunt has been without a prominent tight end for most of his play-calling career. Prior to 2013, no tight end under Wiz had ever accounted for 14 percent of team targets. Given a dominant tight end threat on his last two teams, Whisenhunt has targeted the position on 21.7 percent of passes, which would have been fourth best among all tight ends in 2015.

What This Means for 2016

Whisenhunt’s career in San Diego makes up just a small portion of his play-calling career, but that small sample size suggests that his flexibility as a play caller fits harmoniously with the Chargers’ roster.

Perhaps the most notable feat of Whisenhunt’s career was his ability to maximize Rivers’ efficiency. The primary weapons that allowed for that spectacular 2013 season remain largely in place. This is noteworthy because Rivers has been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in recent history, highlighted by his stellar figures in career touchdown rate (5.3 percent) and adjusted yards per attempt (7.68), both of which rank fifth among active quarterbacks.

Although Rivers’ primary weapon from 2013, Gates, is closer to 40 than 30, Allen has become one of the best receivers in the game since Whisenhunt last coached this team. One of the few constants in Whisenhunt’s past has been a dominant primary wide receiver, and Allen should be able to roll out of bed and see over a quarter of San Diego’s targets under Wiz.

Meanwhile, Travis Benjamin was signed to be the wideout opposite Allen (Stevie Johnson will likely operate primarily from the slot), and will presumably command a target share similar to Nate Washington's 14.3 percent in 2014 as a situational deep threat for Wiz.

As for Gates, he doesn’t have as robust of a role in the Chargers’ offense as he did in 2013. After returning from a four-game suspension, Gates accounted for just over 16 percent of the team’s targets last season, his lowest target share since 2012. Since passing volume is likely to come down under Wiz (and due to natural regression after Rivers led the league with 662 attempts, 80 more than he’s ever thrown) and Allen is likely to dominate targets, Gates’ absolute ceiling is likely around 100 targets.

In his only season under Whisenhunt, Gates accounted for just over 15 percent of the team’s red zone targets, which were dominated by Allen and Woodhead. Even if Rivers is as efficient as he was in 2013, Gates’ most likely outcome is a borderline TE1, and 2015 could be the year that he finally falls out of the fantasy starter ranks.

Whether Wiz has been on the headset or not, Woodhead has carved out a role for himself and dominated backfield receiving and red zone touches in San Diego. As John Paulsen points out, even though Woody had a better fantasy season in 2015, he was a more consistent fantasy back in 2013 under Whisenhunt. There’s no evidence that Woodhead’s role should change and if he continues to be drafted outside of the top 20 running backs, he will present one of the best values all summer.

Even with Woodhead’s huge role in the passing game and near the goal line, there’s room for Melvin Gordon to excel in a Whisenhunt-led offense. In his last season in San Diego, Whisenhunt’s running backs compiled 559 touches, a total that would have led all backfields last season.

Whisenhunt’s play calling has been somewhat susceptible to game flow, and the Chargers are projected by Vegas to win three more games than they did in 2015. If that win total proves true and Gordon improves even marginally from his rookie season (which shouldn’t be hard to do), he could approach 225 carries, even in a timeshare. Like Woodhead, Gordon could emerge as one of the better draft values of 2016 as a classic post-hype sleeper.

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