A.J. Dillon Fantasy Football Week 12 Scouting Report

A.J. Dillon
RB
, Green Bay Packers

Age: 26
Weight: 247 lbs
Height: 6' 0"
College:

ADP: 292
Depth Chart Ranking: N/A

Pts	RuYds	RuTD	Rec	RecYds
0	0	0	0	0

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Scouting report

by Spencer Babbitt

· Jul 12, 2022 · 4:51 PM EDT

GB RB A.J. Dillon - 2022 Fantasy Football Outlook

2022 Fantasy Upside
After a slow start to his rookie campaign where he took a secondary role to Aaron Jones, A.J. Dillon was thrust into the fantasy spotlight after Jones suffered a knee injury in Week 10. Dillon served as the lead back when Jones missed Week 11 and recorded 17 touches for 97 total yards. From that point on, Dillon served as more of a "1B" compliment to Jones rather than a pure backup. He logged 111 carries (vs. only 55 for Jones) and 21 targets (vs. 42 for Jones) over the final eight games of the season to go along with six total touchdowns (vs. three for Jones) during that span. While Jones maintained the majority of passing game work, Dillon remained the lead runner and goal-line back even after Jones returned from injury. Whether that arrangement continues in 2022 will be one of the more interesting fantasy storylines in Green Bay this season. If it does, Dillon will have standalone value as a RB3 given his touchdown upside. Furthermore, if Jones were to miss more time due to injury, Dillon would likely become a RB1 as a workhorse back with Aaron Rodgers under center.

2022 Fantasy Downside
As long as Jones is healthy, Dillon will be locked in a timeshare where he will likely receive half of Green Bay's RB touches in the absolute best-case scenario. This issue is made worse by the fact that Jones will likely dominate the receiving work despite Dillon showing himself to be a capable pass catcher last year. Green Bay presents a situation where the overall RB workload is being split multiple ways, and the "high-value" RB touches (receptions and goal-line carries) are not consolidated to one back. Dillon's abilities at the goal line should give him substantial touchdown upside, but Jones' presence will render him somewhat game script dependent if he is limited primarily to rushing duties between the tackles. In a year when Green Bay has lost multiple weapons and could take a step back offensively, Dillon is not without risk given his middle-round ADP.

2022 Bottom Line
Dillon has significant upside due to his status as a young, ascending player who has shown the ability to produce in NFL games, his demonstrated abilities at the goal line, and the fact that he plays with Aaron Rodgers. However, his strong performance last season has resulted in him being drafted near other backs with a lead role on their offenses, while Dillon will necessarily compete with Jones for touches. Dillon is an exciting but inherently risky fantasy pick in the sixth round.

by Joe Redemann

· Dec 31, 2021 · 11:43 AM EST

GB RB A.J. Dillon - Week 17 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 17 vs. Minnesota Vikings
The return of lead back Aaron Jones – first to the field, and now to full form – has made things tougher for Green Bay Packers "1B" running back A.J. Dillon. Dillon averaged 18.7 half-PPR points in the three weeks before the Pack's bye week; since the bye, he has averaged just 8.1. Still, Dillon makes for a fine fantasy flier this week due to a tasty matchup with a Minnesota Vikings defense allowing the ninth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points (aFPA) to running backs. Dillon is best considered a low-end RB3/FLEX for Week 17, but he has upside due to his team's potential scoring environment.

by Joe Redemann

· Dec 17, 2021 · 4:55 PM EST

GB RB A.J. Dillon - Week 15 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 15 at Baltimore Ravens
With Aaron Jones back and challenging him for touches in the Green Bay Packers' backfield once more, A.J. Dillon's usage in Week 14 went back to the early-down ground-pounder role he had inhabited earlier in the season. Dillon did produce 71 rushing yards on his 15 carries, but without the goal-line and receiving work that Jones has reclaimed, Dillon's fantasy profile is back to that of a high-value handcuff.

Week 15 should continue the trajectory of Jones' injury recovery, pushing Dillon further down the depth chart, which is doubly troublesome due to the Baltimore Ravens allowing the fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points (aFPA) to running backs. Dillon still has some value but is best left as an RB3/FLEX in most leagues.

by Joe Redemann

· Dec 10, 2021 · 10:57 AM EST

GB RB A.J. Dillon - Week 14 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 14 vs. Chicago Bears

Although backfield-mate Aaron Jones should see his touches increase in Week 14 as he completes his injury recovery process, Green Bay Packers running back A.J. Dillon shouldn't be considered solely a bench piece in this contest. Sure, the opposing Chicago Bears allow the eighth-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points (aFPA) to running backs, but Dillon's track record of per-touch efficiency and the 11.5-point projected spread in the Packers' favors indicate that Dillon should receive enough snaps and touches to make him worthwhile as an RB2/3 this week in fantasy.

by Joe Redemann

· Nov 26, 2021 · 6:05 PM EST

GB RB A.J. Dillon - Week 12 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 12 vs. Los Angeles Rams
Considering the versatility that enormous ground pounder A.J. Dillon has displayed over the 2021 season, he still maintains a projection as a low-end RB1 for fantasy in Week 12. At points over the last two weeks, the Green Bay Packers' run game has looked mired in muck, but Dillon's receiving capability has allowed him to sustain fantasy production in spite of that. Add in the fact that Dillon could have the backfield almost all to himself again, and you have the recipe for a volume-based fantasy starter this week.

The only blemishes on Dillon's profile come from the Los Angeles Rams' 12th-ranked unit by schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to running backs, as well as the outside chance that star and starter Aaron Jones (knee) has practiced in some capacity twice already this week. If Jones is active on Sunday (he's a game-time decision), that will cap Dillon's upside. Still, his volume, versatility, and efficiency make Dillon a must-start in all formats this week.

by Joe Redemann

· Nov 19, 2021 · 10:19 AM EST

GB RB A.J. Dillon - Week 11 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 11 at Minnesota Vikings

Green Bay Packers star running back Aaron Jones is injured with an MCL sprain that is expected to sideline him for a minimum of one to two weeks. In the meantime, second-year bruiser A.J. Dillon will take the lead in the backfield for the Pack – a role that has yielded 16 to 18 touches weekly for Jones and should do the same (if not more) for his backup.

Our models project Dillon as fantasy football's RB5 this week in a middle-of-the-road matchup with the Minnesota Vikings. Minnesota is 16th – exactly league-average – in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to running backs, so Dillon's first go as the undisputed starter shouldn't be a brutal one.

by Joe Redemann

· Nov 12, 2021 · 4:48 PM EST

GB RB A.J. Dillon - Week 10 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 10 vs. Seattle Seahawks
The backfield receiving usage of the Green Bay Packers is hard to predict on a weekly basis, but A.J. Dillon is proving head coach Matt LaFleur's prognostication of his passing-game talents true. In Week 9, Dillon was in on far fewer snaps than teammate Aaron Jones but saw a much higher usage rate – including four targets, all of which he caught for 44 receiving yards.

Week 10 sees the Packers host the Seattle Seahawks, who rank third-highest in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to running backs. That means there is an even higher rushing ceiling for Green Bay's backup rusher, who our models project as a solid low-end RB3.