Fantasy Upside
While Jayden Daniels is this season's prized position when we consider rookie quarterbacks who can take off with the ball, there are a few of those options this season, and Caleb Williams is one of them. In addition to his 8,000+ yards and 72 touchdowns through the air, the USC product also gained nearly 1,000 yards on the ground over the last two seasons. With the help of a ton of rushing touchdowns, he scored 8.6 fantasy points per game with his legs alone. For comparison's sake, Josh Allen logged 8.37 PPG and Jalen Hurts finished with 8.85 PPG on the ground. With a very good 3-WR set at his disposal, Williams has the upside to easily finish as a QB1 right out of the gate.
Fantasy Downside
The Bears' offensive line has finally progressed out of the league-worst conversation, but they're still likely a below-average unit as a whole, which could be problematic for a quarterback getting used to the NFL's speed. The wide receiver room has some great options, with Keenan Allen, D.J. Moore, and fellow rookie Rome Odunze making up a formidable depth chart, but we'll see how often new OC Shane Waldron uses them all in tandem. During his stint with the Seattle Seahawks, he would often run a stagnant offense that featured 2-TE sets at the fourth-highest rate between 2022-23 despite having rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba at his disposal last season. If Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett are pushing a third receiver off the field this season, it will impact Williams' ceiling.
2024 Bottom Line
Caleb Williams has been placed into a far stronger position than we've seen from a lot of quarterbacks who come off the top of draft boards, namely, Bryce Young last season. Williams has the tools necessary to hit the ground running as a solid NFL and fantasy quarterback, with room to become much, much more. His supporting cast and an o-line that could work its way into becoming a league-average unit give him the opportunity to post QB1 weeks and could turn him into a top-15 option as a rookie.
