Fantasy Upside
Cole Kmet started to get more involved as a rookie late in the season last year, playing in at least 70% of the offensive snaps in the final seven games of the season (he played just 34% of the offensive snaps in the first nine games). In that span, he averaged 5.1 targets per game, which extrapolated over a full season this year would be 86.7.
Fantasy Downside
Kmet saw just seven red-zone targets all season as a rookie, catching three passes, two of which were touchdowns. Meanwhile, Jimmy Graham saw 22 red-zone targets, which were seventh highest in the league. Graham finished with eight touchdowns. The veteran is returning this season, and while he wasn’t terribly productive (averaging less than 30 yards per game), he did vulture Kmet’s scoring opportunities, which we could see happening again in 2021. The Bears also signed Jesse James, who likely won't have a huge impact, but makes things just that much more complicated.
2021 Bottom Line
Kmet should definitely improve from the 15 yards per game he had as a rookie, but his ceiling will be limited as long as Graham is around. Even Allen Robinson will cause issues considering the wide receiver saw 23 red-zone targets, tied for fourth-most in the league. We have Kmet outside of the top 20 tight ends, which makes him waiver material in most leagues. He has breakout potential, but until we actually see it happen he’s not worth much.