Fantasy Upside
David Montgomery wasn’t great in his rookie year, but there are many positive takeaways we can gather. He had 267 total touches, which was 12th among running backs. He was fairly consistent each game with his touches, finishing with 15+ touches in 12 games. Most of his touches (242) were carries, which we can expect to be similar, if not higher in year two. Montgomery has a strong hold on early downs and goal line work in this offense while backup Tarik Cohen primarily handles third down/pass catching duties. Montgomery also played in every game last season so there are no obvious injury concerns.
Fantasy Downside
Montgomery may have had a lot of touches (12th-highest for RB), but he was very inefficient (No. 25 RB) with them. He especially struggled down the stretch as he finished with fewer than 7.0 fantasy points (PPR) in six of his last eight games. Most of that was the result of him going on a seven-game stretch with no rushing touchdowns. Another reason to be pessimistic about Montgomery is that the Bears are mostly retaining the same offensive line that PFF ranked 25th overall. Chicago lost Kyle Long to retirement and signed Germain Ifedi who had struggles in Seattle.
2020 Bottom Line
There’s reason for optimism with Montgomery heading into 2020. He topped 1,000 all-purpose yards as a rookie behind a bad offensive line in one of the league’s worst offenses. We don’t expect a massive bump in production, but it’s reasonable to project Montgomery will get better in his second year. He currently has the lowest ADP out of the top-10 rushers we project will get the most carries in 2020. This means he carries a fairly low risk for fantasy owners. It’s hard to imagine him getting to top-end RB1 numbers, but it wouldn’t be a shock to see him finish as a solid RB2, especially considering he was the No. 25 back as a rookie.
