Fantasy Upside
At 36, Drew Brees suffered a decline last year while finishing as fantasy football's No. 6 quarterback. But he's also been one of fantasy's most consistent signal-callers over the last two seasons, averaging 20.6 points per game. Despite the Saints' decision to trade Jimmy Graham this offseason, Brees still has a few playmakers in second-year receiver Brandin Cooks and new addition C.J. Spiller who provides a weapon in the screen game (a staple of Payton's system). While he won't be asked to put the ball in the air as much as he has in years past, a dramatic drop-off in production is unlikely for a player that studies the game as much as Brees. The veteran signal-caller is still capable of posting top-5 quarterback numbers.
Fantasy Downside
From 2011 through 2013, Brees ranked as fantasy's No. 2, No. 8 and No. 11-rated player, respectively. In 2014, Brees slipped to fantasy's No. 39 overall player and the sixth-rated quarterback after ranking as a top-2 signal-caller since 2011. Gone is Brees' top red-zone threat in Graham, who often forced defenses to commit extra defenders to his area in order to bracket him in coverage. The Saints also traded one of Brees' top vertical threats in Kenny Stills, who was dealt to the Dolphins in exchange for linebacker Dannell Ellerbe and a third-round pick in 2015 (used to select FSU cornerback P.J. Williams). New Orleans has undergone a significant change in philosophy, shifting from an up-tempo, pass-happy approach to a more ball-control offense. That means fewer attempts for Brees, whose touchdown numbers have also declined every season since 2011. There's reason to believe that his days of being a top-10 fantasy player are over.
Bottom Line
Even if Brees isn't one of fantasy's most prolific players in 2015, it doesn't mean owners should shy away from him on draft night. In fact, his current ADP of 7.08 for 10-team leagues represents value given the presence of Payton, Cooks, Spiller, Mark Ingram and Marques Colston. In other words, just because the Saints have changed their offensive identity doesn't mean they'll suddenly forget where the end zone is located. Losing Graham undoubtedly hurts Brees' fantasy value and owners should adjust accordingly. But if his name has yet to be called in the seventh round or later, Brees will represent solid value for owners who have stocked up at other positions in previous rounds. He currently ranks as our No. 5 fantasy quarterback for 2015.
