Fantasy Upside
Greg Dulcich's 33-411-2 line on 55 targets may not jump off the page, but it was his rookie season in what was a disastrous Denver passing game in 2022. Perhaps the most encouraging stat from Dulcich's rookie year is his 84.1% route participation, which ranks alongside the elites at the TE position. Any TE that runs a route that often will be of interest in fantasy, and there is room for cautious optimism regarding Dulcich's outlook heading into his second pro season. First off, rookie TEs rarely make a big impact in fantasy but are good candidates for production jumps in their second season. Second, the incompetent Nathaniel Hackett has been replaced by offensive guru Sean Payton as Head Coach in Denver, which provides hope that there is systemic improvement on the horizon for the Broncos offense. Dulcich's receiving numbers from last season don't stand out, but nothing stood out about what was going on in Denver on the offensive side of the ball in 2022. Dulcich is going to be running a ton of routes for the new-look offense this year, so he will be a big part of any Russell Wilson redemption tour and that will show up in his box score.
Fantasy Downside
Dulcich will still be catching passes from Wilson, who was downright bad for most of last season. Anyone banking on Dulcich as their fantasy TE1 will have to hope Wilson bounces back in a big way this year. It's also unclear where exactly Dulcich will fall in the target hierarchy. He will definitely be behind Jerry Jeudy, and could also fall behind Courtland Sutton or rookie Marvin Mims depending on how those players perform in the preseason. There is a strong possibility the Broncos' pass catching group turns out to be one big committee behind Jeudy once the regular season starts. Dulcich is interesting in a playing-time sort of way, but there is a wide range of potential outcomes for him in terms of fantasy.
2023 Bottom Line
Dulcich's ADP puts him right on the border between low-end TE1 and high-end TE2. That seems appropriate given he is the clear pass catching at TE for the Broncos, who have a lot of uncertainty on offense heading into the season. If you believe the Broncos bounce back in a big way, Dulcich makes for a very interesting gamble at TE. If you believe we'll see more of the same offense in 2023, Dulcich will not be a viable starter in most fantasy leagues.
