Fantasy Upside
Jake Ferguson was the prototype of the mid-to-back-end TE1 that we so often chase after in fantasy last year. While he never had any slate-breaking performances, he was steadily around the 10.0 half-PPR mark and had a decent five scores to bolster some weeks. We should see more of the same in 2024, with an opportunity for far more touchdowns after he led the position with 12 targets from within the opponent's ten-yard line. If the three touchdowns he scored in the Wild Card round of the NFL Playoffs, would have happened in the regular season, his ADP would likely be much higher.
Fantasy Downside
The tight end position has been notoriously difficult to pin down in fantasy football, with plenty of one-year wonders popping up in the TE1 ranks just to drop down into the top-20 range the following season. Ferguson could be the latest victim of the phenomenon, particularly if Luke Schoonmaker —the Cowboys' second-round pick last year— ends up seeing more of the field. In what amounted to a very disappointing season, Schoonmaker ran only 115 routes, turning them into a 9-72-2 stat line on 15 targets.
2024 Bottom Line
The odds that Ferguson splits time with Schoonmaker should at least be in consideration, but the odds that the former second-rounder eats into any sort of substantial usage seems low. Ferguson was sixth at the position in yards after catch (6.0) and it's clear that the Cowboys feel comfortable targeting him in the end zone. Play-making mixed with touchdown upside on a good offense equates to a TE1 in fantasy, even if he doesn't offer the substantial weeks that the top options in the league can.
