Fantasy Upside
James Cook had a true Year 2 breakout last season, becoming a far bigger part of the down-to-down offense. Things really shot into overdrive after OC Joe Brady took over in Week 10, raising Cook's opportunities (targets + carries) per game from 14.8 to 19.6 and offering him both of his 20+ fantasy point performances (Week 14 + 15). His heightened receiving work is particularly noteworthy heading into 2024, as the team lost the second-highest percentage of year-to-year targets.
Fantasy Downside
To say that QB Josh Allen is a ball hog around the goal line would be an understatement. He took 14 of the team's carries from within the opponent's five-yard line (40%), leaving Cook with only five attempts (14%). The team allowed Latavius Murray, Damien Harris, and Leonard Fournette walk, but they spent a fourth-round pick on Ray Davis, who profiles as someone who will operate extensively around the goal line.
2024 Bottom Line
James Cook might not be among the league leaders in rushing touchdowns any time soon, but his work between the 20s is strong enough to give him a great week-to-week floor. He's got a great chance to end up as a fringe RB1/2 but projecting more than that —like a top-10 finish— might be a little more difficult. If healthy, he has a relatively small range of outcomes, which makes him a safe addition for guaranteed points.